# The Market Fieldbook — Weekly Economic Snapshot

**As of:** 2026-07-13  
**Current Economic Regime:** Mixed / Transitional  
**Confidence:** High  
**Input Availability:** 100%  
**Overall Freshness:** Moderate lag (61/100)

> How to read this report

## The economy in one minute

Economic activity is currently expanding, supported by strong growth and labor conditions. The main concern lies with inflation pressure, which remains moderate but should be monitored closely. Recent data indicates that growth momentum is weakening, even though the overall level of growth remains expansionary. This mixed economic regime classification persists as the macro backdrop does not provide a clear signal across the major pillars.

## Current economic field read

| Pillar               | Score | Current interpretation                |
|---------------------|-------|--------------------------------------|
| Growth              | 77.2  | Expanding                            |
| Labor               | 69.4  | Tight                                |
| Inflation Pressure   | 50.4  | Benign / Watch                       |
| Credit              | 86.8  | Loose                                |
| Liquidity           | 64.1  | Neutral                              |

## What changed in the latest snapshot

Over the past week, the labor score improved by 6.4 points, indicating firmer labor conditions. Growth and inflation pressure scores remained stable, while the credit score saw a slight deterioration of 2.4 points. Overall, these changes reflect a mixed economic environment, with some pillars showing improvement while others remain stable or weaken slightly.

## What the pattern is saying

### Growth
The growth pillar remains strong at a score of 77.2, indicating expansion. However, growth momentum is deteriorating, suggesting that while the current level is robust, the trend is weakening.

### Labor
The labor score of 69.4 indicates tight conditions, which are supportive but may limit policy easing. The recent improvement in labor conditions is a positive sign.

### Inflation Pressure
With a score of 50.4, inflation pressure is considered benign but warrants attention. The stability in this score suggests no immediate threat, yet the moderate level indicates a need for vigilance.

### Credit
The credit score stands at 86.8, reflecting loose conditions that are supportive of economic activity. Despite a slight deterioration, credit remains highly favorable.

### Liquidity
Liquidity is neutral at a score of 64.1, indicating that current conditions are neither clearly supportive nor restrictive.

## Market and economy together

The market regime is classified as Broad Risk-On, while the economic regime is Mixed / Transitional. This alignment is mixed and should be monitored closely, as the economic signals do not fully align with market behavior.

## Why this matters for investors

Understanding the economic backdrop is crucial for evaluating company research, assessing earnings durability, and analyzing financing conditions. The mixed economic signals provide context for portfolio observation, highlighting the importance of vigilance in a transitional environment.

## What would change the conclusion

A change in the economic regime would require confirmation across multiple pillars and snapshots, particularly in growth and inflation pressure.

## What to watch next

1. Monitor changes in growth momentum.
2. Observe labor market developments and initial claims data.
3. Track inflation indicators for signs of pressure.
4. Watch credit conditions for any signs of stress.
5. Keep an eye on liquidity measures and Fed policy signals.

## Data freshness: what is current and what is lagged

Current inputs include labor claims and credit spreads, while key macro data such as retail sales and industrial production are lagged by one to two months.

## Important limitations

This report reflects the latest official macro regime read and should not be interpreted as a real-time nowcast.

---

# Detailed Data Appendix

Weekly Economic Regime Report
As of: 2026-07-13

1/11 Economic Strategist Summary
Economic Regime: Mixed / Transitional
Confidence: High (100% input availability)
The macro backdrop is not sending a clean signal across the major pillars.

2/11 What Changed Since Prior Economic Run
- Growth score was broadly stable versus the prior run.
- Labor score improved by 6.4 pts versus the prior run.
- Inflation Pressure score was broadly stable versus the prior run.
- Credit score deteriorated by 2.4 pts versus the prior run.
- Liquidity score was broadly stable versus the prior run.

Historical context:
Growth was little changed (+0.0 pts). Labor improved (+6.4 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit weakened (-2.4 pts). Liquidity was little changed (+0.0 pts).

3/11 Economic Regime Dashboard
Growth: 77/100 - Expanding
Labor: 69/100 - Tight
Inflation Pressure: 50/100 - Benign / Watch
Credit: 87/100 - Loose
Liquidity: 64/100 - Neutral

3B/11 Economic Transition Monitor
- Current economic regime: Mixed / Transitional.
- Prior economic regime: Mixed / Transitional.
- Regime duration: 2 weekly observation(s).
- Regime changed this run: No.
- Transition pressure: Low / watch.
- Main transition pressure: growth is weakening over the trailing observations.
- Potential transition risk: no single transition path is dominant yet.

3C/11 Economic Momentum + Deterioration Monitor
Economic momentum:
- Growth momentum: deteriorating (-8.8 pts over trailing observations).
- Labor momentum: improving (+5.6 pts over trailing observations).
- Inflation Pressure momentum: stable (+0.7 pts over trailing observations).
- Credit momentum: stable (-4.1 pts over trailing observations).
- Liquidity momentum: stable (+0.5 pts over trailing observations).

Deterioration monitor:
- No persistent 3-run deterioration or improvement signals detected.

3D/11 Market / Economy Divergence Monitor
- Market regime: Broad Risk-On.
- Economic regime: Mixed / Transitional.
- Current alignment read: Market Regime: Broad Risk-On. Economic Regime: Mixed / Transitional. Alignment is mixed and should be monitored.
- Market / economy divergence risk: Low.
- Reason: market and economic regimes are not showing a major contradiction based on current pillar scores.

3E/11 Economic Data Freshness Monitor
- Overall data freshness: Moderate lag (61/100).
- Monthly official macro data often lag by one to two months; weekly claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data provide the faster confirmation layer.
- Lagged official-data inputs: Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY, Manufacturers New Orders YoY, Retail Sales YoY, Retail Sales 3M Annualized, Industrial Production YoY, Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate 3M Change, ...
- Current/faster confirmation inputs: Initial Claims 4W Avg, Initial Claims 13W Change, High Yield OAS, High Yield OAS 13W Change, Investment Grade OAS, Investment Grade OAS 13W Change, Chicago Fed NFCI, NFCI 13W Change, ...
- Interpretation note: emphasize this as the latest official macro regime read, not a real-time nowcast.

Pillar freshness:
- Growth: Stale / caution (avg age 73d; freshest Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY as of 2026-05-01; oldest Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY as of 2026-05-01).
- Labor: Recent (avg age 31d; freshest Initial Claims 4W Avg as of 2026-07-04; oldest Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change as of 2026-06-01).
- Inflation Pressure: Stale / caution (avg age 73d; freshest CPI YoY as of 2026-05-01; oldest CPI YoY as of 2026-05-01).
- Credit: Current (avg age 5d; freshest High Yield OAS as of 2026-07-10; oldest Chicago Fed NFCI as of 2026-07-03).
- Liquidity: Recent (avg age 25d; freshest Reverse Repo 13W Change as of 2026-07-13; oldest M2 Money Supply YoY as of 2026-05-01).

3F/11 Economic Signal Defensibility
- This is the latest official macro-regime read, not a real-time nowcast.
- Slow official data should be read alongside faster confirmation from claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data.

- Raw vs freshness-adjusted pillar scores:
- Growth: raw 77/100 | freshness-adjusted 70/100 | freshness: Stale / caution
- Labor: raw 69/100 | freshness-adjusted 68/100 | freshness: Recent
- Inflation Pressure: raw 50/100 | freshness-adjusted 50/100 | freshness: Stale / caution
- Credit: raw 87/100 | freshness-adjusted 87/100 | freshness: Current
- Liquidity: raw 64/100 | freshness-adjusted 63/100 | freshness: Recent

- Interpretation caveats:
- Growth and labor are economically important but can lag turning points.
- Credit is the faster financial-conditions confirmation layer, not a direct measure of real economic output.
- Inflation Pressure is directional: higher means more inflation pressure, not a better inflation backdrop.
- Liquidity is a plumbing/policy mix and should be interpreted with sign logic, not as a simple risk-on/risk-off score.

3G/11 Official Macro vs Faster Confirmation
- Slow official macro: Growth 77/100, Labor 69/100, Inflation Pressure 50/100.
- Faster financial confirmation: Credit 87/100, Liquidity 64/100.
- Credit conditions are currently supportive and not signaling broad stress.

3H/11 Liquidity Interpretation Notes
- Fed balance sheet growth is generally liquidity-supportive; contraction is generally less supportive.
- M2 growth is a broad money/liquidity proxy, but it is lagged and regime-dependent.
- Reverse Repo changes are money-market plumbing; falling RRP can release liquidity, while rising RRP can absorb cash.
- Treasury General Account changes affect reserve liquidity; falling TGA can add liquidity, while rising TGA can drain it.
- Fed funds is better read as policy restrictiveness than pure liquidity.

4/11 Growth / Labor / Inflation / Credit / Liquidity Pillars
Growth: 77/100 - Expanding
  Growth is broadly supportive of risk assets.
  - Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.43% | component score 63
  - Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 2.31% | component score 56
  - Retail Sales YoY: 6.88% | component score 100
  - Retail Sales 3M Annualized: 12.66% | component score 100
  - Industrial Production YoY: 1.67% | component score 67

Labor: 69/100 - Tight
  Labor remains supportive, though it may also limit policy easing.
  - Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 111k | component score 54
  - Unemployment Rate: 4.20% | component score 77
  - Unemployment Rate 3M Change: -0.10 ppt | component score 83
  - Initial Claims 4W Avg: 218,750 | component score 68
  - Initial Claims 13W Change: -1.38% | component score 66

Inflation Pressure: 50/100 - Benign / Watch
  Inflation pressure is moderate but should be watched for direction of travel.
  - CPI YoY: 4.27% | component score 57
  - Core CPI YoY: 2.96% | component score 27
  - PPI YoY: 6.42% | component score 100
  - Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 3.52% | component score 17

Credit: 87/100 - Loose
  Credit conditions are supportive and not signaling broad stress.
  - High Yield OAS: 2.69% | component score 100
  - High Yield OAS 13W Change: -0.25 ppt | component score 83
  - Investment Grade OAS: 0.77% | component score 100
  - Investment Grade OAS 13W Change: -0.05 ppt | component score 73
  - Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.52 | component score 94
  - NFCI 13W Change: -0.05 | component score 71

Liquidity: 64/100 - Neutral
  Liquidity is not clearly supportive or restrictive.
  - Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.62% | component score 70
  - M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.58% | component score 95
  - Reverse Repo 13W Change: 0.7 | component score 50
  - Treasury General Account 13W Change: 25,686.0 | component score 46
  - Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% | component score 59

5/11 Market Regime vs Economic Regime Alignment
Market Regime: Broad Risk-On. Economic Regime: Mixed / Transitional. Alignment is mixed and should be monitored.

6/11 Historical Economic Context
History file: /app/data/history/economic_regime_history.csv
Current history observations: 7
Growth was little changed (+0.0 pts). Labor improved (+6.4 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit weakened (-2.4 pts). Liquidity was little changed (+0.0 pts).

7/11 Key Economic Inputs
- Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.43% as of 2026-05-01
- Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 2.31% as of 2026-05-01
- Retail Sales YoY: 6.88% as of 2026-05-01
- Industrial Production YoY: 1.67% as of 2026-05-01
- Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 111k as of 2026-06-01
- Unemployment Rate: 4.20% as of 2026-06-01
- Initial Claims 4W Avg: 218,750 as of 2026-07-04
- CPI YoY: 4.27% as of 2026-05-01
- Core CPI YoY: 2.96% as of 2026-05-01
- High Yield OAS: 2.69% as of 2026-07-10
- Investment Grade OAS: 0.77% as of 2026-07-10
- Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.52 as of 2026-07-03
- Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.62% as of 2026-07-08
- M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.58% as of 2026-05-01
- Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% as of 2026-06-01

Charts
- /app/data/charts/economic_regime_pillars.png
- /app/data/charts/economic_regime_history.png