How to use the Fieldbook
A repeatable cycle from observation to decision.
The Market Fieldbook is designed as a research process, not a stream of isolated scores or market predictions. Each layer informs the next.
1. Observe the environment
Begin with the latest daily, weekly, and monthly snapshots. They answer different questions across different time horizons.
- Daily market notes examine regime, breadth, leadership, credit, volatility, confirmation, and divergence.
- Weekly economic reviews examine growth, labor, inflation pressure, credit, liquidity, and transition risk.
- Monthly factor reviews examine which investment characteristics are being rewarded or penalized.
No single layer controls the conclusion. The goal is to understand where evidence agrees, where it conflicts, and what is changing.
2. Screen for durable companies
Use the Company Scorebook to narrow a large universe into a manageable research set.
The screener considers business quality, valuation, balance-sheet strength, market confirmation, and data reliability. A strong score earns attention. It does not automatically make a company investable.
3. Research the business
Study how the company makes money, why customers choose it, how durable its advantages may be, how management allocates capital, and what could weaken the business.
Separate facts from interpretations. Record unresolved questions instead of filling gaps with confidence.
4. Form a testable thesis
A useful investment thesis makes claims that can be evaluated over time.
- Why should the business remain durable?
- What should drive earnings and free cash flow?
- What may the market be misunderstanding?
- What evidence should appear if the thesis is right?
- What would prove the thesis wrong?
5. Apply the scientific method
The research process follows the logic of a scientific investigation:
- Observe a pattern or opportunity.
- Form a hypothesis.
- Define the evidence the hypothesis predicts.
- Collect confirming and challenging evidence.
- Attempt to disprove the hypothesis.
- Revise, retain, or reject the thesis.
The objective is not to defend the original opinion. The objective is to preserve an accurate understanding of the evidence.
6. Decide whether the opportunity is investable
Four separate judgments are required:
- Is this a durable company?
- Is the thesis intact?
- Is the expected return attractive?
- Is the position appropriate for the portfolio?
A good company can be too expensive. A sound thesis can still offer a poor expected return. An attractive opportunity can still be unsuitable at an excessive portfolio weight.
7. Monitor the evidence
After a decision, continue tracking earnings, financial strength, valuation, catalysts, competitive evidence, market confirmation, and explicit invalidation conditions.
Positions can be maintained, increased, reduced, exited, or returned to a research queue as the evidence changes.
8. Repeat the cycle
Markets change. Economic conditions change. Companies change. The process repeats so that decisions remain connected to current evidence rather than old assumptions.