# The Market Fieldbook — Weekly Economic Snapshot

**As of:** 2026-08-10  
**Current Economic Regime:** Expansionary  
**Confidence:** High  
**Input Availability:** 100%  
**Overall Freshness:** Recent (72/100)  

> How to read this report

## The economy in one minute

Current economic conditions remain broadly expansionary. Growth, labor, and credit are supportive, while inflation pressure is moderate and liquidity is not materially restrictive. The growth momentum is improving, indicating a reacceleration, although it is important to note that growth momentum is weakening across recent snapshots. Labor conditions are tight, which supports the overall expansion but may limit policy easing. The regime classification remains as expansionary due to the supportive levels of growth, labor, and credit, alongside moderate inflation pressure that is below the elevated threshold. 

## Current economic field read

| Pillar               | Score | Current interpretation               |
|----------------------|-------|-------------------------------------|
| Growth               | 83    | Reaccelerating                      |
| Labor                | 70    | Tight                               |
| Inflation Pressure    | 41    | Moderate / Watch                    |
| Credit               | 84    | Loose                               |
| Liquidity            | 64    | Neutral                             |

## What changed in the latest snapshot

In the latest week, the growth score improved by 7.8 points, indicating stronger growth conditions. The labor score also improved by 1.5 points, reflecting firmer labor conditions. Inflation pressure eased by 3.0 points, suggesting less inflationary pressure. The credit score remained stable, while liquidity experienced a slight deterioration of 3.3 points.

## What the pattern is saying

### Growth
The growth score is currently at 83, indicating a reaccelerating trend. Recent improvements in manufacturing orders and retail sales contribute positively to this score.

### Labor
The labor score stands at 70, reflecting tight labor conditions. While this supports economic activity, it may also pose challenges for policy adjustments.

### Inflation Pressure
Inflation pressure is moderate at a score of 41. This suggests that while inflation is present, it is not at levels that would trigger immediate concern.

### Credit
Credit conditions are loose, with a score of 84, indicating that borrowing costs remain favorable and are not signaling broad stress in the financial system.

### Liquidity
Liquidity is neutral at a score of 64, suggesting that current conditions are neither clearly supportive nor restrictive.

## Market and economy together

The market regime is currently mixed and transitional, while the economic regime remains expansionary. This alignment should be monitored for potential shifts.

## Why this matters for investors

Understanding the current economic backdrop is crucial for evaluating company research, assessing earnings durability, and observing financing conditions. The supportive growth and credit conditions may provide a favorable environment for corporate performance, while the tight labor market could influence wage dynamics and operational costs.

## What would change the conclusion

A shift in the economic regime would require confirmation across multiple pillars and snapshots, particularly if there were signs of broad deterioration in growth, labor, or credit conditions.

## What to watch next

1. Monitor changes in inflation pressure and its potential impact on monetary policy.
2. Observe labor market trends for signs of tightening or loosening.
3. Keep an eye on credit conditions and any shifts in borrowing costs.
4. Track liquidity measures for indications of market stress or support.

## Data freshness: what is current and what is lagged

Current data inputs are available and provide timely insights, while some official macro data may lag by one to two months.

## Important limitations

This report reflects the latest official macro-regime read and should be interpreted alongside faster confirmation data to provide a comprehensive view of economic conditions.

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# Detailed Data Appendix

Weekly Economic Regime Report
As of: 2026-08-10
Economic Regime Methodology: v2.0
Methodology effective date: 2026-07-14

1/11 Economic Strategist Summary
Economic Regime: Expansionary
Confidence: High (100% input availability)
Current economic conditions remain broadly expansionary: growth, labor, and credit are supportive, while inflation pressure is moderate and liquidity is not materially restrictive.

2/11 What Changed Since Prior Economic Run
- Growth score improved by 7.8 pts versus the prior run.
- Labor score improved by 1.5 pts versus the prior run.
- Inflation Pressure eased by 3.0 pts versus the prior run (less inflation pressure).
- Credit score was broadly stable versus the prior run.
- Liquidity score deteriorated by 3.3 pts versus the prior run.

Historical context:
Growth improved (+7.8 pts). Labor improved (+1.5 pts). Inflation Pressure eased (-3.0 pts, less inflation pressure). Credit was little changed (+0.4 pts). Liquidity weakened (-3.3 pts).

3/11 Economic Regime Dashboard
Growth: 83/100 - Reaccelerating
Labor: 70/100 - Tight
Inflation Pressure: 41/100 - Moderate / Watch
Credit: 84/100 - Loose
Liquidity: 64/100 - Neutral

3A/11 Economic Classification Rationale
- Current-state classification: Expansionary.
- The regime label is based primarily on current pillar levels. Momentum, persistence, transition pressure, and data freshness are evaluated separately.
- Growth: 83/100 (Reaccelerating); classification assessment: supportive.
- Labor: 70/100 (Tight); classification assessment: supportive.
- Inflation Pressure: 41/100 (Moderate / Watch); classification assessment: moderate or contained.
- Credit: 84/100 (Loose); classification assessment: supportive.
- Liquidity: 64/100 (Neutral); classification assessment: not materially restrictive.
- Expansionary was selected because growth, labor, and credit are supportive, inflation pressure is below the elevated threshold, and liquidity is not materially restrictive.

3B/11 Economic Transition Monitor
- Current economic regime: Expansionary.
- Prior economic regime: Expansionary.
- Regime duration: 6 weekly observation(s).
- Regime changed this run: No.
- Transition pressure: Low.
- Main transition pressure: no broad multi-pillar deterioration signal.
- Potential transition risk: no single transition path is dominant yet.

3C/11 Economic Momentum + Deterioration Monitor
Economic momentum:
- Growth momentum: improving (+7.8 pts over trailing observations).
- Labor momentum: stable (+0.4 pts over trailing observations).
- Inflation Pressure momentum: stable (-3.0 pts over trailing observations).
- Credit momentum: stable (-1.9 pts over trailing observations).
- Liquidity momentum: stable (-0.9 pts over trailing observations).

Deterioration monitor:
- No persistent 3-run deterioration or improvement signals detected.

3D/11 Market / Economy Divergence Monitor
- Market regime: Mixed / Transitional.
- Economic regime: Expansionary.
- Current alignment read: Market Regime: Mixed / Transitional. Economic Regime: Expansionary. Alignment is mixed and should be monitored.
- Market / economy divergence risk: Low.
- Reason: market and economic regimes are not showing a major contradiction based on current pillar scores.

3E/11 Economic Data Freshness Monitor
- Overall data freshness: Recent (72/100).
- Monthly official macro data often lag by one to two months; weekly claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data provide the faster confirmation layer.
- Lagged official-data inputs: Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY, Manufacturers New Orders YoY, Retail Sales YoY, Retail Sales 3M Annualized, Industrial Production YoY, Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate 3M Change, ...
- Current/faster confirmation inputs: Initial Claims 4W Avg, Initial Claims 13W Change, High Yield OAS, High Yield OAS 13W Change, Investment Grade OAS, Investment Grade OAS 13W Change, Chicago Fed NFCI, NFCI 13W Change, ...
- Interpretation note: data freshness is adequate, with faster indicators helping confirm or challenge the slower official macro data.

Pillar freshness:
- Growth: Lagged (avg age 70d; freshest Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY as of 2026-06-01; oldest Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY as of 2026-06-01).
- Labor: Recent (avg age 30d; freshest Initial Claims 4W Avg as of 2026-08-01; oldest Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change as of 2026-07-01).
- Inflation Pressure: Lagged (avg age 70d; freshest CPI YoY as of 2026-06-01; oldest CPI YoY as of 2026-06-01).
- Credit: Current (avg age 6d; freshest High Yield OAS as of 2026-08-06; oldest Chicago Fed NFCI as of 2026-07-31).
- Liquidity: Recent (avg age 25d; freshest Reverse Repo 13W Change as of 2026-08-07; oldest M2 Money Supply YoY as of 2026-06-01).

3F/11 Economic Signal Defensibility
- This is the latest official macro-regime read, not a real-time nowcast.
- Slow official data should be read alongside faster confirmation from claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data.

- Raw vs freshness-adjusted pillar scores:
- Growth: raw 83/100 | freshness-adjusted 78/100 | freshness: Lagged
- Labor: raw 70/100 | freshness-adjusted 69/100 | freshness: Recent
- Inflation Pressure: raw 41/100 | freshness-adjusted 42/100 | freshness: Lagged
- Credit: raw 84/100 | freshness-adjusted 84/100 | freshness: Current
- Liquidity: raw 64/100 | freshness-adjusted 63/100 | freshness: Recent

- Interpretation caveats:
- Growth and labor are economically important but can lag turning points.
- Credit is the faster financial-conditions confirmation layer, not a direct measure of real economic output.
- Inflation Pressure is directional: higher means more inflation pressure, not a better inflation backdrop.
- Liquidity is a plumbing/policy mix and should be interpreted with sign logic, not as a simple risk-on/risk-off score.

3G/11 Official Macro vs Faster Confirmation
- Slow official macro: Growth 83/100, Labor 70/100, Inflation Pressure 41/100.
- Faster financial confirmation: Credit 84/100, Liquidity 64/100.
- Credit conditions are currently supportive and not signaling broad stress.

3H/11 Liquidity Interpretation Notes
- Fed balance sheet growth is generally liquidity-supportive; contraction is generally less supportive.
- M2 growth is a broad money/liquidity proxy, but it is lagged and regime-dependent.
- Reverse Repo changes are money-market plumbing; falling RRP can release liquidity, while rising RRP can absorb cash.
- Treasury General Account changes affect reserve liquidity; falling TGA can add liquidity, while rising TGA can drain it.
- Fed funds is better read as policy restrictiveness than pure liquidity.

4/11 Growth / Labor / Inflation / Credit / Liquidity Pillars
Growth: 83/100 - Reaccelerating
  Growth momentum is improving across cyclical inputs.
  - Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.15% | component score 59
  - Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 7.37% | component score 95
  - Retail Sales YoY: 6.72% | component score 100
  - Retail Sales 3M Annualized: 7.94% | component score 100
  - Industrial Production YoY: 1.14% | component score 59

Labor: 70/100 - Tight
  Labor remains supportive, though it may also limit policy easing.
  - Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 20k | component score 23
  - Unemployment Rate: 4.10% | component score 80
  - Unemployment Rate 3M Change: -0.20 ppt | component score 100
  - Initial Claims 4W Avg: 198,750 | component score 84
  - Initial Claims 13W Change: 0.00% | component score 60

Inflation Pressure: 41/100 - Moderate / Watch
  Inflation pressure is moderate but should be watched for direction of travel.
  - CPI YoY: 3.73% | component score 43
  - Core CPI YoY: 2.81% | component score 23
  - PPI YoY: 5.51% | component score 92
  - Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 3.15% | component score 5

Credit: 84/100 - Loose
  Credit conditions are supportive and not signaling broad stress.
  - High Yield OAS: 2.71% | component score 100
  - High Yield OAS 13W Change: -0.10 ppt | component score 73
  - Investment Grade OAS: 0.78% | component score 100
  - Investment Grade OAS 13W Change: -0.01 ppt | component score 68
  - Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.53 | component score 94
  - NFCI 13W Change: -0.03 | component score 66

Liquidity: 64/100 - Neutral
  Liquidity is not clearly supportive or restrictive.
  - Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.58% | component score 70
  - M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.53% | component score 95
  - Reverse Repo 13W Change: 0.7 | component score 50
  - Treasury General Account 13W Change: 29,563.0 | component score 45
  - Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% | component score 59

5/11 Market Regime vs Economic Regime Alignment
Market Regime: Mixed / Transitional. Economic Regime: Expansionary. Alignment is mixed and should be monitored.

6/11 Historical Economic Context
History file: /app/data/history/economic_regime_history.csv
Current history observations: 13
Growth improved (+7.8 pts). Labor improved (+1.5 pts). Inflation Pressure eased (-3.0 pts, less inflation pressure). Credit was little changed (+0.4 pts). Liquidity weakened (-3.3 pts).

7/11 Key Economic Inputs
- Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.15% as of 2026-06-01
- Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 7.37% as of 2026-06-01
- Retail Sales YoY: 6.72% as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial Production YoY: 1.14% as of 2026-06-01
- Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 20k as of 2026-07-01
- Unemployment Rate: 4.10% as of 2026-07-01
- Initial Claims 4W Avg: 198,750 as of 2026-08-01
- CPI YoY: 3.73% as of 2026-06-01
- Core CPI YoY: 2.81% as of 2026-06-01
- High Yield OAS: 2.71% as of 2026-08-06
- Investment Grade OAS: 0.78% as of 2026-08-06
- Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.53 as of 2026-07-31
- Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.58% as of 2026-08-05
- M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.53% as of 2026-06-01
- Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% as of 2026-07-01

Charts
- /app/data/charts/economic_regime_pillars.png
- /app/data/charts/economic_regime_history.png