# The Market Fieldbook — Weekly Economic Snapshot

**As of:** 2026-07-27  
**Current Economic Regime:** Expansionary  
**Confidence:** High  
**Input Availability:** 100%  
**Overall Freshness:** Recent (70/100)  

> How to read this report

## The economy in one minute

Current economic conditions remain broadly expansionary. Growth, labor, and credit are supportive, while inflation pressure is moderate and liquidity is not materially restrictive. Although growth momentum is stable, it is weakening across recent snapshots. Labor conditions have improved, indicating a tighter labor market, which is supportive of economic activity. The slower official data aligns with the faster confirmation signals, reinforcing the expansionary classification of the current regime.

## Current economic field read

| Pillar               | Score | Current interpretation          |
|----------------------|-------|---------------------------------|
| Growth               | 75    | Expanding                       |
| Labor                | 78    | Tight                           |
| Inflation Pressure    | 44    | Moderate / Watch                |
| Credit               | 85    | Loose                           |
| Liquidity            | 71    | Supportive                      |

## What changed in the latest snapshot

Over the past week, the labor score improved by 9.1 points, indicating firmer labor conditions. Growth, inflation pressure, and credit scores remained broadly stable. Liquidity conditions also saw an improvement of 6.1 points, contributing to the supportive economic environment.

## What the pattern is saying

### Growth
The growth score remains at 75, indicating expansion. Recent metrics show stable manufacturing and retail sales growth, supporting the overall economic activity.

### Labor
The labor score is at 78, reflecting tight conditions. The improvement in the labor score suggests a strengthening labor market, which could impact wage growth and consumer spending.

### Inflation pressure
Inflation pressure is moderate at 44, suggesting that while inflation is present, it is not at alarming levels. This score should be monitored for any directional changes.

### Credit
Credit conditions are loose, with a score of 85, indicating that financing remains accessible and supportive of economic activity.

### Liquidity
Liquidity is supportive, with a score of 71. Recent improvements in liquidity conditions suggest a favorable environment for economic transactions.

## Market and economy together
The current market regime is classified as Inflation-Sensitive Defensive Tape, which indicates a cautious market stance despite the supportive economic backdrop. This divergence suggests that market participants may be reacting to potential risks that are not fully reflected in the economic data.

## Why this matters for investors
Understanding the current economic backdrop is essential for evaluating company research, assessing earnings durability, and observing financing conditions. The supportive economic environment may influence corporate performance and investment strategies.

## What would change the conclusion
A shift in the economic regime would require confirmation across multiple pillars and snapshots, particularly if there were signs of broad deterioration in growth, labor, or credit conditions.

## What to watch next
1. Updates on inflation metrics and their impact on consumer behavior.
2. Changes in labor market indicators, particularly unemployment claims.
3. Developments in credit conditions and their implications for financing.
4. Monitoring liquidity trends and their effects on market dynamics.
5. Observations on the alignment between market and economic regimes.

## Data freshness: what is current and what is lagged
The overall data freshness is rated as recent, with some key economic indicators lagging by one to two months. Faster confirmation inputs provide timely insights into the current economic landscape.

## Important limitations
This report reflects the latest official macro-regime read and should be interpreted alongside faster confirmation data.

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# Detailed Data Appendix

Weekly Economic Regime Report
As of: 2026-07-27
Economic Regime Methodology: v2.0
Methodology effective date: 2026-07-14

1/11 Economic Strategist Summary
Economic Regime: Expansionary
Confidence: High (100% input availability)
Current economic conditions remain broadly expansionary: growth, labor, and credit are supportive, while inflation pressure is moderate and liquidity is not materially restrictive.

2/11 What Changed Since Prior Economic Run
- Growth score was broadly stable versus the prior run.
- Labor score improved by 9.1 pts versus the prior run.
- Inflation Pressure score was broadly stable versus the prior run.
- Credit score was broadly stable versus the prior run.
- Liquidity score improved by 6.1 pts versus the prior run.

Historical context:
Growth was little changed (+0.0 pts). Labor improved (+9.1 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit was little changed (-0.3 pts). Liquidity improved (+6.1 pts).

3/11 Economic Regime Dashboard
Growth: 75/100 - Expanding
Labor: 78/100 - Tight
Inflation Pressure: 44/100 - Moderate / Watch
Credit: 85/100 - Loose
Liquidity: 71/100 - Supportive

3A/11 Economic Classification Rationale
- Current-state classification: Expansionary.
- The regime label is based primarily on current pillar levels. Momentum, persistence, transition pressure, and data freshness are evaluated separately.
- Growth: 75/100 (Expanding); classification assessment: supportive.
- Labor: 78/100 (Tight); classification assessment: supportive.
- Inflation Pressure: 44/100 (Moderate / Watch); classification assessment: moderate or contained.
- Credit: 85/100 (Loose); classification assessment: supportive.
- Liquidity: 71/100 (Supportive); classification assessment: not materially restrictive.
- Expansionary was selected because growth, labor, and credit are supportive, inflation pressure is below the elevated threshold, and liquidity is not materially restrictive.

3B/11 Economic Transition Monitor
- Current economic regime: Expansionary.
- Prior economic regime: Expansionary.
- Regime duration: 4 weekly observation(s).
- Regime changed this run: No.
- Transition pressure: Low.
- Main transition pressure: no broad multi-pillar deterioration signal.
- Potential transition risk: no single transition path is dominant yet.

3C/11 Economic Momentum + Deterioration Monitor
Economic momentum:
- Growth momentum: stable (-2.4 pts over trailing observations).
- Labor momentum: improving (+8.8 pts over trailing observations).
- Inflation Pressure momentum: stable (-2.1 pts over trailing observations).
- Credit momentum: stable (+0.3 pts over trailing observations).
- Liquidity momentum: improving (+6.6 pts over trailing observations).

Deterioration monitor:
- No persistent 3-run deterioration or improvement signals detected.

3D/11 Market / Economy Divergence Monitor
- Market regime: Inflation-Sensitive Defensive Tape.
- Economic regime: Expansionary.
- Current alignment read: Market Regime: Inflation-Sensitive Defensive Tape. Economic Regime: Expansionary. Markets are acting more cautious than the economic backdrop alone would imply.
- Market / economy divergence risk: Moderate.
- Reason: market defensiveness may be ahead of still-supportive macro conditions.

3E/11 Economic Data Freshness Monitor
- Overall data freshness: Recent (70/100).
- Monthly official macro data often lag by one to two months; weekly claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data provide the faster confirmation layer.
- Lagged official-data inputs: Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY, Manufacturers New Orders YoY, Retail Sales YoY, Retail Sales 3M Annualized, Industrial Production YoY, Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate 3M Change, ...
- Current/faster confirmation inputs: Initial Claims 4W Avg, Initial Claims 13W Change, High Yield OAS, High Yield OAS 13W Change, Investment Grade OAS, Investment Grade OAS 13W Change, Chicago Fed NFCI, NFCI 13W Change, ...
- Interpretation note: data freshness is adequate, with faster indicators helping confirm or challenge the slower official macro data.

Pillar freshness:
- Growth: Lagged (avg age 62d; freshest Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY as of 2026-06-01; oldest Manufacturers New Orders YoY as of 2026-05-01).
- Labor: Recent (avg age 40d; freshest Initial Claims 4W Avg as of 2026-07-18; oldest Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change as of 2026-06-01).
- Inflation Pressure: Lagged (avg age 56d; freshest CPI YoY as of 2026-06-01; oldest CPI YoY as of 2026-06-01).
- Credit: Current (avg age 6d; freshest High Yield OAS as of 2026-07-23; oldest Chicago Fed NFCI as of 2026-07-17).
- Liquidity: Recent (avg age 31d; freshest Reverse Repo 13W Change as of 2026-07-24; oldest M2 Money Supply YoY as of 2026-05-01).

3F/11 Economic Signal Defensibility
- This is the latest official macro-regime read, not a real-time nowcast.
- Slow official data should be read alongside faster confirmation from claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data.

- Raw vs freshness-adjusted pillar scores:
- Growth: raw 75/100 | freshness-adjusted 71/100 | freshness: Lagged
- Labor: raw 78/100 | freshness-adjusted 77/100 | freshness: Recent
- Inflation Pressure: raw 44/100 | freshness-adjusted 45/100 | freshness: Lagged
- Credit: raw 85/100 | freshness-adjusted 85/100 | freshness: Current
- Liquidity: raw 71/100 | freshness-adjusted 70/100 | freshness: Recent

- Interpretation caveats:
- Growth and labor are economically important but can lag turning points.
- Credit is the faster financial-conditions confirmation layer, not a direct measure of real economic output.
- Inflation Pressure is directional: higher means more inflation pressure, not a better inflation backdrop.
- Liquidity is a plumbing/policy mix and should be interpreted with sign logic, not as a simple risk-on/risk-off score.

3G/11 Official Macro vs Faster Confirmation
- Slow official macro: Growth 75/100, Labor 78/100, Inflation Pressure 44/100.
- Faster financial confirmation: Credit 85/100, Liquidity 71/100.
- Credit conditions are currently supportive and not signaling broad stress.

3H/11 Liquidity Interpretation Notes
- Fed balance sheet growth is generally liquidity-supportive; contraction is generally less supportive.
- M2 growth is a broad money/liquidity proxy, but it is lagged and regime-dependent.
- Reverse Repo changes are money-market plumbing; falling RRP can release liquidity, while rising RRP can absorb cash.
- Treasury General Account changes affect reserve liquidity; falling TGA can add liquidity, while rising TGA can drain it.
- Fed funds is better read as policy restrictiveness than pure liquidity.

4/11 Growth / Labor / Inflation / Credit / Liquidity Pillars
Growth: 75/100 - Expanding
  Growth is broadly supportive of risk assets.
  - Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.15% | component score 59
  - Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 2.31% | component score 56
  - Retail Sales YoY: 6.72% | component score 100
  - Retail Sales 3M Annualized: 7.94% | component score 100
  - Industrial Production YoY: 1.14% | component score 59

Labor: 78/100 - Tight
  Labor remains supportive, though it may also limit policy easing.
  - Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 111k | component score 54
  - Unemployment Rate: 4.20% | component score 77
  - Unemployment Rate 3M Change: -0.10 ppt | component score 83
  - Initial Claims 4W Avg: 207,500 | component score 77
  - Initial Claims 13W Change: -13.02% | component score 100

Inflation Pressure: 44/100 - Moderate / Watch
  Inflation pressure is moderate but should be watched for direction of travel.
  - CPI YoY: 3.73% | component score 43
  - Core CPI YoY: 2.81% | component score 23
  - PPI YoY: 5.51% | component score 92
  - Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 3.52% | component score 17

Credit: 85/100 - Loose
  Credit conditions are supportive and not signaling broad stress.
  - High Yield OAS: 2.77% | component score 100
  - High Yield OAS 13W Change: -0.09 ppt | component score 73
  - Investment Grade OAS: 0.79% | component score 100
  - Investment Grade OAS 13W Change: -0.01 ppt | component score 68
  - Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.55 | component score 96
  - NFCI 13W Change: -0.07 | component score 74

Liquidity: 71/100 - Supportive
  Liquidity conditions are a macro tailwind.
  - Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.60% | component score 70
  - M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.58% | component score 95
  - Reverse Repo 13W Change: 0.6 | component score 50
  - Treasury General Account 13W Change: -176,345.0 | component score 79
  - Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% | component score 59

5/11 Market Regime vs Economic Regime Alignment
Market Regime: Inflation-Sensitive Defensive Tape. Economic Regime: Expansionary. Markets are acting more cautious than the economic backdrop alone would imply.

6/11 Historical Economic Context
History file: /app/data/history/economic_regime_history.csv
Current history observations: 11
Growth was little changed (+0.0 pts). Labor improved (+9.1 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit was little changed (-0.3 pts). Liquidity improved (+6.1 pts).

7/11 Key Economic Inputs
- Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.15% as of 2026-06-01
- Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 2.31% as of 2026-05-01
- Retail Sales YoY: 6.72% as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial Production YoY: 1.14% as of 2026-06-01
- Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 111k as of 2026-06-01
- Unemployment Rate: 4.20% as of 2026-06-01
- Initial Claims 4W Avg: 207,500 as of 2026-07-18
- CPI YoY: 3.73% as of 2026-06-01
- Core CPI YoY: 2.81% as of 2026-06-01
- High Yield OAS: 2.77% as of 2026-07-23
- Investment Grade OAS: 0.79% as of 2026-07-23
- Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.55 as of 2026-07-17
- Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.60% as of 2026-07-22
- M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.58% as of 2026-05-01
- Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% as of 2026-06-01

Charts
- /app/data/charts/economic_regime_pillars.png
- /app/data/charts/economic_regime_history.png