Daily Market Note
Mixed / Transitional
Field read
The market is giving mixed signals. Some risk indicators remain supportive, but leadership and participation are uneven. The evidence calls for patience and selectivity rather than a strong risk-on or risk-off conclusion. The risk backdrop is mixed. Market participation is uneven. Large growth stocks are leading. The average S&P 500 stock is not confirming the cap-weighted index.
Full report
Presented as a field journal with responsive tables and preserved source text.
The Market Fieldbook — Daily Market Snapshot
- Snapshot generated: 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC
- Latest market data: 2026-10-08
- Current regime: Mixed / Transitional
- Current subregime: Narrow Growth Leadership
- Internal market health: 28/100 (Fragile)
- Regime momentum: 58/100 (Stable)
- Regime duration: 16 snapshots
- History sample: 90 snapshots
> How to read this report > > Start with the bottom line, then use the changes and watch list to understand what could strengthen or weaken it. Scores summarize multiple market measures on a 0–100 scale. The appendix preserves the underlying data and technical detail.
The market in one minute
The market is giving mixed signals. Some risk indicators remain supportive, but leadership and participation are uneven. The evidence calls for patience and selectivity rather than a strong risk-on or risk-off conclusion. The risk backdrop is mixed. Market participation is uneven. Large growth stocks are leading. The average S&P 500 stock is not confirming the cap-weighted index.
Current field read
- The risk backdrop is mixed.
- Market participation is uneven.
- Large growth stocks are leading.
- The average S&P 500 stock is not confirming the cap-weighted index.
- Credit markets are not signaling broad stress.
- Volatility remains contained.
- Defensive demand: low.
What changed in the latest snapshot
- The risk-on score rose by 2.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- The growth-leadership score fell by 4.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- Momentum leadership deteriorated by 13.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- The small-cap-participation score rose by 1.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- The defensive-demand score rose by 16.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- The credit-risk score fell by 32.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- The share of tracked ETFs with positive one-month returns rose by 8.8 points versus the previous snapshot.
- QQQ vs SPY deteriorated by 1.2 percentage points versus the previous snapshot.
One snapshot can be noisy. A move becomes more meaningful when it continues across several readings or is confirmed by other measures.
What the recent pattern is saying
- Risk appetite is improving, and its score is 9.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
- Growth leadership is deteriorating, and its score is 5.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago.
- Momentum leadership is deteriorating, and its score is 19.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago.
- Small-cap participation is stable, and its score is 2.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago.
- Breadth is improving, and its score is 11.8 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
- Credit risk appetite is stable, and its score is 3.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago.
- Transition: Breadth participation is improving, suggesting broader market confirmation.
- Persistence: Breadth has improved for 3 consecutive observations.
- Persistence: Mega-cap leadership has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations.
Confirmation check
Risk appetite
Risk-on confirmations: 4/5
- Yes: SPY positive over T1
- Yes: QQQ outperforming SPY
- Yes: HYG outperforming TLT
- Yes: VIX below 20
- No: ETF breadth above 70%
Defensive confirmations: 1/5
- No: USMV outperforming SPY
- No: GLD outperforming SPY
- No: XLU outperforming SPY
- No: TLT positive over T1
- Yes: HY spreads widening
Credit
Credit diagnostics
- Spread stress: HY spreads appear calm at 3.09.
- Credit ETF confirmation: HYG is outperforming TLT by +2.4% over T1.
Defensive assets
Defensive diagnostics
A check is confirming when the defensive asset is outperforming SPY or is positive over the stated period.
- Equity defensives: 0/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
- Macro defensives: 1/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
Global confirmation
- Global participation score: 11/100 (Weak or negative participation)
- Global relative-leadership score: 8/100 (U.S. leadership)
Absolute global participation
- Global equities: ACWI -0.2% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities: VXUS -3.6% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S.: VEA -3.8% over T1
- EAFE developed markets: IEFA -3.6% over T1
- Emerging markets: VWO -2.7% over T1
Relative global leadership
- Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY -2.0% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY -5.4% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY -5.6% over T1
- EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY -5.3% over T1
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -4.5% over T1
- Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA +1.1% over T1
- Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA +3.9% over T1
- China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO -1.0% over T1
- India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO -3.7% over T1
- Dollar backdrop: UUP T1 +3.6%
- Global read-through: Global equities are weak in absolute terms and are also lagging the U.S., so international markets are not confirming broad risk appetite.
Bottom line: Global equities are weak in absolute terms and are also lagging the U.S., so international markets are not confirming broad risk appetite.
Why this matters
The market regime is more dependable when participation, leadership, credit, volatility, defensive assets, and global markets point in the same direction. When they disagree, the better interpretation is usually mixed or transitional rather than strongly bullish or bearish.
What would change the conclusion
A stronger conclusion requires several independent measures to improve or deteriorate together and remain there across repeated snapshots.
Current warning evidence:
- No major tactical warning signals currently detected.
What to watch in the next snapshots
- Watch whether breadth participation is improving, suggesting broader market confirmation persists.
- Watch the next reading: Risk appetite is improving, and its score is 9.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
- Watch the next reading: Growth leadership is deteriorating, and its score is 5.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago.
- Watch the next reading: Momentum leadership is deteriorating, and its score is 19.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago.
Important limitations
This report describes observed market conditions. It is not a forecast, trading signal, or personalized investment recommendation. Scores summarize the supplied evidence; they do not establish investor motives, company fundamentals, or future returns.
Detailed Data Appendix
Daily ETF + Macro Strategist Note
Generated2026-10-09 08:30 UTC
Latest ETF price date2026-10-08
LookbacksT1=trailing 1M, T3=trailing 3M, T6=trailing 6M, T9=trailing 9M, T12=trailing 12M
1/9 Strategist Summary
Strategist summary:
- Current regime read: Mixed / Transitional.
- ETF breadth: T1 44% | T3 44% | T6 68% | T12 82%.
- QQQ vs SPY: +2.7% over T1.
- RSP vs SPY: -2.7% over T1.
- MTUM vs SPY: +1.0% over T1.
- IWM vs SPY: -6.0% over T1.
- HYG vs TLT: +2.4% over T1.
- CMA-related quality/cash-generation proxy: QUAL vs SPY +1.4%, SPHQ vs SPY -0.3%, COWZ vs SPY -2.7% over T1. These are fresh ETF proxies for quality/cash-generation behavior, not substitutes for the Ken French CMA factor.
- Reversal-related momentum-unwind proxy: MTUM vs SPY +1.0%, SPMO vs SPY -1.2%, VLUE vs MTUM -3.9% over T1. Weakening momentum leadership with value/recovery improvement can flag reversal pressure; this is a proxy, not the academic reversal factor.
- Global vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY -2.0% over T1.
- Ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY -5.4% over T1.
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -4.5% over T1.
- Volatility is contained with VIX at 15.41.
2/9 What Changed Since Prior Run
- Risk-on appetite improved by 2.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Growth leadership deteriorated by 4.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Momentum leadership deteriorated by 13.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Small-cap participation improved by 1.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Defensive demand increased by 16.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Credit risk appetite deteriorated by 32.0 pts versus the prior run.
- T1 ETF breadth improved by 8.8 pts versus the prior run.
- QQQ vs SPY deteriorated by 1.2 percentage points versus the prior run.
3/9 Tactical Signal Dashboard
- Risk backdrop: mixed.
- Breadth: mixed.
- Growth leadership: leading.
- Equal-weight confirmation: not confirming.
- Credit: confirming risk appetite.
- Volatility: contained.
- Defensive demand: low.
3B/9 Regime Transition Monitor
- Breadth participation is improving, suggesting broader market confirmation.
Tactical warnings:
- No major tactical warning signals currently detected.
3C/9 Historical Context + Divergence
- Concentration risk score: 96/100 (Elevated concentration risk / narrow leadership)
Historical percentiles:
- Risk appetite: 25th percentile
- T1 breadth: 27th percentile
- QQQ vs SPY: 76th percentile
- RSP vs SPY: 19th percentile
- Credit beta vs duration: 75th percentile
- VIX: 31st percentile
Regime momentum:
- Risk appetite: improving (+9.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Growth leadership: deteriorating (-5.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Momentum leadership: deteriorating (-19.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Small-cap participation: stable (-2.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Breadth: improving (+11.8 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Credit risk appetite: stable (-3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Defensive demand: improving (+9.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
Statistical abnormality monitor:
- Breadth is historically extreme (+2.1σ, above normal).
- Mega-cap leadership is normal (+0.0σ, above normal).
- Equal-weight participation is normal (+0.8σ, above normal).
- Small-cap participation is normal (-0.9σ, below normal).
- Credit participation is normal (+0.6σ, above normal).
Percentile monitor:
- Breadth is below average (28th percentile).
- Mega-cap leadership is above average (77th percentile).
- Equal-weight participation is below average (20th percentile).
- Small-cap participation is very weak (6th percentile).
- Credit participation is above average (76th percentile).
Signal deterioration monitor:
- Breadth has improved for 3 consecutive observations.
- Mega-cap leadership has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations.
3D/9 Signal Defensibility Diagnostics
- Market subregime: Narrow Growth Leadership
Credit diagnostics
- Spread stress: HY spreads appear calm at 3.09.
- Credit ETF confirmation: HYG is outperforming TLT by +2.4% over T1.
Defensive diagnostics
A check is confirming when the defensive asset is outperforming SPY or is positive over the stated period.
- Equity defensives: 0/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
- Macro defensives: 1/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
Duration diagnostics:
- Treasury ETF trend: TLT T1 -4.3%; IEF T1 -2.3%.
- Rate impulse: 2Y 4.75 (-0.02 d/d); 10Y 5.22 (-0.06 d/d); 10Y-2Y curve 0.47 (-0.04 d/d).
4/9 Market State Dashboard
Market regimeMixed / Transitional
Current regime duration16 runs
Internal health28/100 (Fragile)
Regime momentum58/100 (Stable)
Regime scorecard:
- Risk-on appetite: 55/100 (LOW confidence)
- Defensive demand: 34/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
- Growth leadership: 75/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
- Small-cap participation: 21/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
- Momentum leadership: 63/100 (LOW confidence)
- Real asset/inflation leadership: 25/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
- Credit risk appetite: 54/100 (LOW confidence)
- Duration support: 69/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
Confirmation dashboard:
Risk-on confirmations: 4/5
- Yes: SPY positive over T1
- Yes: QQQ outperforming SPY
- Yes: HYG outperforming TLT
- Yes: VIX below 20
- No: ETF breadth above 70%
Defensive confirmations: 1/5
- No: USMV outperforming SPY
- No: GLD outperforming SPY
- No: XLU outperforming SPY
- No: TLT positive over T1
- Yes: HY spreads widening
5/9 ETF Dashboard
ETF return explorer
Compare absolute returns across market groups and time horizons.
The complete return table is available below.
| SPYS&P 500 | Market beta | +1.8% | +2.8% | +14.4% | +13.1% | +16.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQNasdaq 100 | Market beta | +4.5% | +3.1% | +22.8% | +20.2% | +24.2% |
| RSPEqual Weight S&P 500 | Market beta | -0.9% | -0.8% | +7.8% | +10.1% | +13.1% |
| IWMRussell 2000 | Market beta | -4.2% | -6.0% | +6.5% | +9.4% | +14.8% |
| DIADow | Market beta | -2.1% | -2.4% | +6.9% | +5.6% | +11.4% |
| MTUMMomentum | Factor/style | +2.8% | -1.2% | +21.3% | +24.2% | +25.5% |
| SPMOS&P 500 Momentum | Factor/style | +0.5% | -1.7% | +23.3% | +26.3% | +26.3% |
| QUALQuality | Factor/style | +3.2% | +3.2% | +13.4% | +12.7% | +16.5% |
| SPHQS&P 500 Quality | Factor/style | +1.5% | -2.8% | +8.4% | +12.8% | +17.3% |
| COWZFree Cash Flow Yield | Factor/style | -0.9% | +8.1% | +11.7% | +13.7% | +22.4% |
| USMVMin Vol | Factor/style | +0.9% | +2.6% | +7.2% | +7.3% | +6.6% |
| VLUEEnhanced Value | Factor/style | -1.1% | +2.9% | +32.0% | +43.0% | +61.5% |
| VTVValue | Factor/style | -1.5% | +0.7% | +9.3% | +14.9% | +19.7% |
| VUGGrowth | Factor/style | +4.2% | +4.6% | +19.5% | +11.8% | +14.1% |
| AVUVSmall Value | Factor/style | -3.4% | -2.8% | +4.8% | +15.3% | +22.6% |
| DFSVSmall Value Profitability | Factor/style | -3.6% | -1.4% | +5.6% | +13.9% | +21.1% |
| XLKTechnology | Sectors | +5.4% | +6.6% | +39.5% | +35.5% | +39.2% |
| XLCCommunication Services | Sectors | +1.5% | +0.7% | -1.3% | -3.4% | -2.2% |
| XLYConsumer Discretionary | Sectors | -0.4% | -4.5% | -0.5% | -7.0% | -4.4% |
| XLIIndustrials | Sectors | -1.7% | -7.2% | -1.7% | +6.8% | +10.4% |
| XLFFinancials | Sectors | -4.6% | -2.3% | +6.4% | -1.3% | +2.4% |
| XLEEnergy | Sectors | +0.5% | +19.1% | +15.3% | +47.4% | +50.0% |
| XLBMaterials | Sectors | -3.7% | -2.7% | -3.8% | +6.9% | +12.2% |
| XLVHealthcare | Sectors | +1.3% | +5.0% | +13.5% | +6.6% | +18.5% |
| XLPConsumer Staples | Sectors | +1.1% | -0.2% | +1.3% | +11.0% | +9.6% |
| XLUUtilities | Sectors | -3.7% | -8.9% | -11.7% | +0.1% | -6.3% |
| XLREReal Estate | Sectors | -5.1% | -7.3% | -2.8% | +4.2% | +1.8% |
| ACWIGlobal Equities | Global/international | -0.2% | +1.3% | +10.9% | +11.8% | +16.5% |
| VXUSTotal International ex-US | Global/international | -3.6% | -1.3% | +4.4% | +9.7% | +16.2% |
| VEADeveloped Markets ex-US | Global/international | -3.8% | -1.3% | +4.2% | +10.4% | +18.2% |
| IEFAEAFE Developed Markets | Global/international | -3.6% | -1.4% | +2.4% | +6.7% | +12.6% |
| VWOEmerging Markets | Global/international | -2.7% | -1.1% | +5.0% | +7.3% | +10.5% |
| EEMEmerging Markets | Global/international | -3.5% | -1.2% | +10.2% | +16.9% | +24.7% |
| EWJJapan | Global/international | +0.3% | +2.9% | +10.9% | +18.0% | +23.9% |
| EWUUnited Kingdom | Global/international | -3.3% | -0.8% | -1.6% | +5.4% | +12.6% |
| EWQFrance | Global/international | -8.0% | -8.3% | -7.8% | -6.8% | -2.9% |
| EWGGermany | Global/international | -5.5% | -2.0% | -0.3% | -4.1% | -1.4% |
| MCHIChina | Global/international | -3.7% | -3.3% | -9.6% | -16.5% | -20.5% |
| FXIChina Large Cap | Global/international | -3.2% | -0.1% | -7.1% | -14.2% | -16.8% |
| INDAIndia | Global/international | -6.4% | -7.6% | -7.2% | -15.9% | -13.8% |
| EWCCanada | Global/international | -4.4% | -0.6% | +3.8% | +8.5% | +16.1% |
| EWAAustralia | Global/international | -4.7% | -0.8% | -3.8% | +9.0% | +7.3% |
| GLDGold | Macro assets | -6.1% | +0.4% | -13.5% | -7.5% | +3.4% |
| DBCCommodities | Macro assets | +0.2% | +19.6% | +14.6% | +45.7% | +49.7% |
| TLTLong Treasuries | Macro assets | -4.3% | -6.7% | -8.1% | -8.2% | -8.6% |
| IEFIntermediate Treasuries | Macro assets | -2.3% | -3.5% | -4.3% | -4.5% | -3.5% |
| HYGHigh Yield Credit | Macro assets | -1.9% | -1.8% | -1.0% | -0.3% | +1.3% |
| LQDInvestment Grade Credit | Macro assets | -2.3% | -3.4% | -4.1% | -4.0% | -3.6% |
| UUPUS Dollar | Macro assets | +3.6% | +2.1% | +5.5% | +6.5% | +7.9% |
Sort columns or swipe horizontally to view all return periods.
6/9 Relative Leadership
Relative-leadership explorer
Compare which assets are leading or lagging their reference markets.
The complete return table is available below.
| QQQ-SPYGrowth/mega-cap vs broad market | Relative leadership | +2.7% | +0.4% | +8.4% | +7.1% | +7.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSP-SPYEqual-weight vs cap-weight | Relative leadership | -2.7% | -3.5% | -6.6% | -3.0% | -3.8% |
| IWM-SPYSmall caps vs large caps | Relative leadership | -6.0% | -8.7% | -7.9% | -3.7% | -2.1% |
| MTUM-SPYMomentum vs broad market | Relative leadership | +1.0% | -4.0% | +6.9% | +11.1% | +8.6% |
| SPMO-SPYS&P 500 momentum vs broad market | Relative leadership | -1.2% | -4.5% | +8.9% | +13.1% | +9.4% |
| QUAL-SPYQuality vs broad market | Relative leadership | +1.4% | +0.4% | -1.0% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| SPHQ-SPYS&P 500 quality vs broad market | Relative leadership | -0.3% | -5.6% | -6.0% | -0.4% | +0.4% |
| COWZ-SPYFree-cash-flow yield vs broad market | Relative leadership | -2.7% | +5.4% | -2.7% | +0.6% | +5.5% |
| USMV-SPYMinimum volatility vs broad market | Relative leadership | -0.9% | -0.1% | -7.2% | -5.8% | -10.3% |
| VLUE-MTUMEnhanced value vs momentum | Relative leadership | -3.9% | +4.1% | +10.7% | +18.8% | +36.0% |
| VTV-VUGValue vs growth | Relative leadership | -5.7% | -3.9% | -10.2% | +3.1% | +5.6% |
| XLY-XLPConsumer discretionary vs staples | Relative leadership | -1.6% | -4.3% | -1.8% | -18.0% | -14.1% |
| XLI-XLUIndustrials vs utilities | Relative leadership | +1.9% | +1.7% | +10.0% | +6.6% | +16.7% |
| XLE-XLKEnergy vs technology | Relative leadership | -4.9% | +12.6% | -24.2% | +12.0% | +10.8% |
| GLD-SPYGold vs equities | Relative leadership | -7.9% | -2.3% | -27.9% | -20.6% | -13.5% |
| HYG-TLTCredit beta vs duration | Relative leadership | +2.4% | +4.9% | +7.1% | +7.9% | +9.9% |
| ACWI-SPYGlobal equities vs U.S. | Relative leadership | -2.0% | -1.4% | -3.5% | -1.3% | -0.4% |
| VXUS-SPYEx-U.S. equities vs U.S. | Relative leadership | -5.4% | -4.0% | -10.0% | -3.4% | -0.7% |
| VEA-SPYDeveloped ex-U.S. vs U.S. | Relative leadership | -5.6% | -4.1% | -10.2% | -2.7% | +1.3% |
| IEFA-SPYEAFE developed markets vs U.S. | Relative leadership | -5.3% | -4.2% | -12.0% | -6.4% | -4.3% |
| VWO-SPYEmerging markets vs U.S. | Relative leadership | -4.5% | -3.9% | -9.4% | -5.8% | -6.4% |
| VWO-VEAEmerging markets vs developed ex-U.S. | Relative leadership | +1.1% | +0.2% | +0.8% | -3.1% | -7.7% |
| EWJ-IEFAJapan vs EAFE developed markets | Relative leadership | +3.9% | +4.3% | +8.5% | +11.3% | +11.2% |
| MCHI-VWOChina vs emerging markets | Relative leadership | -1.0% | -2.2% | -14.7% | -23.8% | -31.0% |
| INDA-VWOIndia vs emerging markets | Relative leadership | -3.7% | -6.5% | -12.2% | -23.2% | -24.4% |
Sort columns or swipe horizontally to view all return periods.
6B/9 Global / International Confirmation
Global participation score11/100 (Weak or negative participation)
Global relative-leadership score8/100 (U.S. leadership)
Absolute global participation
- Global equities: ACWI -0.2% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities: VXUS -3.6% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S.: VEA -3.8% over T1
- EAFE developed markets: IEFA -3.6% over T1
- Emerging markets: VWO -2.7% over T1
Relative global leadership
- Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY -2.0% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY -5.4% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY -5.6% over T1
- EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY -5.3% over T1
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -4.5% over T1
- Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA +1.1% over T1
- Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA +3.9% over T1
- China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO -1.0% over T1
- India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO -3.7% over T1
- Dollar backdrop: UUP T1 +3.6%
Global read-through: Global equities are weak in absolute terms and are also lagging the U.S., so international markets are not confirming broad risk appetite.
7/9 U.S. Leaders and Laggards
Strongest U.S. trend scores:
- XLK (Technology): T1 +5.4%, T6 +39.5%, T12 +39.2%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -1.2%, Decelerating leadership
- VLUE (Enhanced Value): T1 -1.1%, T6 +32.0%, T12 +61.5%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -6.4%, Decelerating leadership
- XLE (Energy): T1 +0.5%, T6 +15.3%, T12 +50.0%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -2.1%, Persistent leadership
- DBC (Commodities): T1 +0.2%, T6 +14.6%, T12 +49.7%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -2.3%, Persistent leadership
- QQQ (Nasdaq 100): T1 +4.5%, T6 +22.8%, T12 +24.2%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +0.7%, Persistent leadership
- MTUM (Momentum): T1 +2.8%, T6 +21.3%, T12 +25.5%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -0.7%, Persistent leadership
- SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum): T1 +0.5%, T6 +23.3%, T12 +26.3%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -3.4%, Persistent leadership
- VUG (Growth): T1 +4.2%, T6 +19.5%, T12 +14.1%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +1.0%, Decelerating leadership
Weakest U.S. trend scores:
- TLT (Long Treasuries): T1 -4.3%, T6 -8.1%, T12 -8.6%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -3.0%, Accelerating leadership
- XLU (Utilities): T1 -3.7%, T6 -11.7%, T12 -6.3%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -1.7%, Accelerating leadership
- GLD (Gold): T1 -6.1%, T6 -13.5%, T12 +3.4%, Persistence 2/5, Acceleration -3.9%, Long-term leader, short-term fading
- IEF (Intermediate Treasuries): T1 -2.3%, T6 -4.3%, T12 -3.5%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -1.6%, Accelerating leadership
- LQD (Investment Grade Credit): T1 -2.3%, T6 -4.1%, T12 -3.6%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -1.6%, Accelerating leadership
- XLRE (Real Estate): T1 -5.1%, T6 -2.8%, T12 +1.8%, Persistence 2/5, Acceleration -4.6%, Long-term leader, short-term fading
- XLY (Consumer Discretionary): T1 -0.4%, T6 -0.5%, T12 -4.4%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -0.4%, Weak / failed leadership
- HYG (High Yield Credit): T1 -1.9%, T6 -1.0%, T12 +1.3%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -1.7%, Decelerating leadership
7B/9 Global Leaders and Laggards Strongest global trend scores:
- EWJ (Japan): T1 +0.3%, T6 +10.9%, T12 +23.9%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -1.5%, Decelerating leadership
- ACWI (Global Equities): T1 -0.2%, T6 +10.9%, T12 +16.5%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -2.0%, Decelerating leadership
- EEM (Emerging Markets): T1 -3.5%, T6 +10.2%, T12 +24.7%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -5.2%, Decelerating leadership
- VEA (Developed Markets ex-US): T1 -3.8%, T6 +4.2%, T12 +18.2%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -4.5%, Decelerating leadership
- VXUS (Total International ex-US): T1 -3.6%, T6 +4.4%, T12 +16.2%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -4.3%, Decelerating leadership
Weakest global trend scores:
- INDA (India): T1 -6.4%, T6 -7.2%, T12 -13.8%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -5.2%, Weak / failed leadership
- MCHI (China): T1 -3.7%, T6 -9.6%, T12 -20.5%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -2.1%, Weak / failed leadership
- EWQ (France): T1 -8.0%, T6 -7.8%, T12 -2.9%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -6.7%, Weak / failed leadership
- FXI (China Large Cap): T1 -3.2%, T6 -7.1%, T12 -16.8%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -2.0%, Weak / failed leadership
- EWG (Germany): T1 -5.5%, T6 -0.3%, T12 -1.4%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -5.5%, Decelerating leadership
8/9 Macro Snapshot
VIX15.41 (+0.33 d/d) as of 2026-10-08
3M Treasury4.23 (+0.01 d/d) as of 2026-10-08
2Y Treasury4.75 (-0.02 d/d) as of 2026-10-08
10Y Treasury5.22 (-0.06 d/d) as of 2026-10-08
10Y-2Y Curve0.47 (-0.04 d/d) as of 2026-10-08
HY Spread3.09 (+0.06 d/d) as of 2026-10-07
IG Spread0.82 (-0.01 d/d) as of 2026-10-07
View original plain-text artifact
# The Market Fieldbook — Daily Market Snapshot **Snapshot generated:** 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC **Latest market data:** 2026-10-08 **Current regime:** Mixed / Transitional **Current subregime:** Narrow Growth Leadership **Internal market health:** 28/100 (Fragile) **Regime momentum:** 58/100 (Stable) **Regime duration:** 16 snapshots **History sample:** 90 snapshots > **How to read this report** > > Start with the bottom line, then use the changes and watch list to understand what could strengthen or weaken it. Scores summarize multiple market measures on a 0–100 scale. The appendix preserves the underlying data and technical detail. ## The market in one minute The market is giving mixed signals. Some risk indicators remain supportive, but leadership and participation are uneven. The evidence calls for patience and selectivity rather than a strong risk-on or risk-off conclusion. The risk backdrop is mixed. Market participation is uneven. Large growth stocks are leading. The average S&P 500 stock is not confirming the cap-weighted index. ## Current field read - The risk backdrop is mixed. - Market participation is uneven. - Large growth stocks are leading. - The average S&P 500 stock is not confirming the cap-weighted index. - Credit markets are not signaling broad stress. - Volatility remains contained. - Defensive demand: low. ## What changed in the latest snapshot - The risk-on score rose by 2.0 points versus the previous snapshot. - The growth-leadership score fell by 4.0 points versus the previous snapshot. - Momentum leadership deteriorated by 13.0 points versus the previous snapshot. - The small-cap-participation score rose by 1.0 points versus the previous snapshot. - The defensive-demand score rose by 16.0 points versus the previous snapshot. - The credit-risk score fell by 32.0 points versus the previous snapshot. - The share of tracked ETFs with positive one-month returns rose by 8.8 points versus the previous snapshot. - QQQ vs SPY deteriorated by 1.2 percentage points versus the previous snapshot. One snapshot can be noisy. A move becomes more meaningful when it continues across several readings or is confirmed by other measures. ## What the recent pattern is saying 1. Risk appetite is improving, and its score is 9.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago. 2. Growth leadership is deteriorating, and its score is 5.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago. 3. Momentum leadership is deteriorating, and its score is 19.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago. 4. Small-cap participation is stable, and its score is 2.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago. 5. Breadth is improving, and its score is 11.8 points higher than 5 snapshots ago. 6. Credit risk appetite is stable, and its score is 3.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago. 7. Transition: Breadth participation is improving, suggesting broader market confirmation. 8. Persistence: Breadth has improved for 3 consecutive observations. 9. Persistence: Mega-cap leadership has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations. ## Confirmation check ### Risk appetite - Risk-on confirmations: 4/5 - Yes: SPY positive over T1 - Yes: QQQ outperforming SPY - Yes: HYG outperforming TLT - Yes: VIX below 20 - No: ETF breadth above 70% - Defensive confirmations: 1/5 - No: USMV outperforming SPY - No: GLD outperforming SPY - No: XLU outperforming SPY - No: TLT positive over T1 - Yes: HY spreads widening ### Credit - Credit diagnostics: - Spread stress: HY spreads appear calm at 3.09. - Credit ETF confirmation: HYG is outperforming TLT by +2.4% over T1. ### Defensive assets - Defensive diagnostics: - Equity defensives: 0/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1. - Macro defensives: 1/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1. ## Global confirmation - Global participation score: 11/100 (Weak or negative participation) - Global relative-leadership score: 8/100 (U.S. leadership) - Absolute global participation: - Global equities: ACWI -0.2% over T1 - Ex-U.S. equities: VXUS -3.6% over T1 - Developed ex-U.S.: VEA -3.8% over T1 - EAFE developed markets: IEFA -3.6% over T1 - Emerging markets: VWO -2.7% over T1 - Relative global leadership: - Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY -2.0% over T1 - Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY -5.4% over T1 - Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY -5.6% over T1 - EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY -5.3% over T1 - Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -4.5% over T1 - Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA +1.1% over T1 - Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA +3.9% over T1 - China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO -1.0% over T1 - India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO -3.7% over T1 - Dollar backdrop: UUP T1 +3.6% - Global read-through: Global equities are weak in absolute terms and are also lagging the U.S., so international markets are not confirming broad risk appetite. **Plain-English global read:** Global equities are weak in absolute terms and are also lagging the U.S., so international markets are not confirming broad risk appetite. ## Why this matters The market regime is more dependable when participation, leadership, credit, volatility, defensive assets, and global markets point in the same direction. When they disagree, the better interpretation is usually mixed or transitional rather than strongly bullish or bearish. ## What would change the conclusion A stronger conclusion requires several independent measures to improve or deteriorate together and remain there across repeated snapshots. Current warning evidence: - No major tactical warning signals currently detected. ## What to watch in the next snapshots 1. Watch whether breadth participation is improving, suggesting broader market confirmation persists. 2. Watch the next reading: Risk appetite is improving, and its score is 9.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago. 3. Watch the next reading: Growth leadership is deteriorating, and its score is 5.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago. 4. Watch the next reading: Momentum leadership is deteriorating, and its score is 19.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago. ## Important limitations This report describes observed market conditions. It is not a forecast, trading signal, or personalized investment recommendation. Scores summarize the supplied evidence; they do not establish investor motives, company fundamentals, or future returns. --- # Detailed Data Appendix Daily ETF + Macro Strategist Note Generated: 2026-10-09 08:30 UTC Latest ETF price date: 2026-10-08 Lookbacks: T1=trailing 1M, T3=trailing 3M, T6=trailing 6M, T9=trailing 9M, T12=trailing 12M 1/9 Strategist Summary Strategist summary: - Current regime read: Mixed / Transitional. - ETF breadth: T1 44% | T3 44% | T6 68% | T12 82%. - QQQ vs SPY: +2.7% over T1. - RSP vs SPY: -2.7% over T1. - MTUM vs SPY: +1.0% over T1. - IWM vs SPY: -6.0% over T1. - HYG vs TLT: +2.4% over T1. - CMA-related quality/cash-generation proxy: QUAL vs SPY +1.4%, SPHQ vs SPY -0.3%, COWZ vs SPY -2.7% over T1. These are fresh ETF proxies for quality/cash-generation behavior, not substitutes for the Ken French CMA factor. - Reversal-related momentum-unwind proxy: MTUM vs SPY +1.0%, SPMO vs SPY -1.2%, VLUE vs MTUM -3.9% over T1. Weakening momentum leadership with value/recovery improvement can flag reversal pressure; this is a proxy, not the academic reversal factor. - Global vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY -2.0% over T1. - Ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY -5.4% over T1. - Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -4.5% over T1. - Volatility is contained with VIX at 15.41. 2/9 What Changed Since Prior Run - Risk-on appetite improved by 2.0 pts versus the prior run. - Growth leadership deteriorated by 4.0 pts versus the prior run. - Momentum leadership deteriorated by 13.0 pts versus the prior run. - Small-cap participation improved by 1.0 pts versus the prior run. - Defensive demand increased by 16.0 pts versus the prior run. - Credit risk appetite deteriorated by 32.0 pts versus the prior run. - T1 ETF breadth improved by 8.8 pts versus the prior run. - QQQ vs SPY deteriorated by 1.2 percentage points versus the prior run. 3/9 Tactical Signal Dashboard - Risk backdrop: mixed. - Breadth: mixed. - Growth leadership: leading. - Equal-weight confirmation: not confirming. - Credit: confirming risk appetite. - Volatility: contained. - Defensive demand: low. 3B/9 Regime Transition Monitor - Breadth participation is improving, suggesting broader market confirmation. Tactical warnings: - No major tactical warning signals currently detected. 3C/9 Historical Context + Divergence - Concentration risk score: 96/100 (Elevated concentration risk / narrow leadership) Historical percentiles: - Risk appetite: 25th percentile - T1 breadth: 27th percentile - QQQ vs SPY: 76th percentile - RSP vs SPY: 19th percentile - Credit beta vs duration: 75th percentile - VIX: 31st percentile Regime momentum: - Risk appetite: improving (+9.0 pts vs 5 runs ago) - Growth leadership: deteriorating (-5.0 pts vs 5 runs ago) - Momentum leadership: deteriorating (-19.0 pts vs 5 runs ago) - Small-cap participation: stable (-2.0 pts vs 5 runs ago) - Breadth: improving (+11.8 pts vs 5 runs ago) - Credit risk appetite: stable (-3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago) - Defensive demand: improving (+9.0 pts vs 5 runs ago) Statistical abnormality monitor: - Breadth is historically extreme (+2.1σ, above normal). - Mega-cap leadership is normal (+0.0σ, above normal). - Equal-weight participation is normal (+0.8σ, above normal). - Small-cap participation is normal (-0.9σ, below normal). - Credit participation is normal (+0.6σ, above normal). Percentile monitor: - Breadth is below average (28th percentile). - Mega-cap leadership is above average (77th percentile). - Equal-weight participation is below average (20th percentile). - Small-cap participation is very weak (6th percentile). - Credit participation is above average (76th percentile). Signal deterioration monitor: - Breadth has improved for 3 consecutive observations. - Mega-cap leadership has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations. 3D/9 Signal Defensibility Diagnostics - Market subregime: Narrow Growth Leadership Credit diagnostics: - Spread stress: HY spreads appear calm at 3.09. - Credit ETF confirmation: HYG is outperforming TLT by +2.4% over T1. Defensive diagnostics: - Equity defensives: 0/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1. - Macro defensives: 1/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1. Duration diagnostics: - Treasury ETF trend: TLT T1 -4.3%; IEF T1 -2.3%. - Rate impulse: 2Y 4.75 (-0.02 d/d); 10Y 5.22 (-0.06 d/d); 10Y-2Y curve 0.47 (-0.04 d/d). 4/9 Market State Dashboard Market regime: Mixed / Transitional Current regime duration: 16 runs Internal health: 28/100 (Fragile) Regime momentum: 58/100 (Stable) Regime scorecard: - Risk-on appetite: 55/100 (LOW confidence) - Defensive demand: 34/100 (MEDIUM confidence) - Growth leadership: 75/100 (MEDIUM confidence) - Small-cap participation: 21/100 (MEDIUM confidence) - Momentum leadership: 63/100 (LOW confidence) - Real asset/inflation leadership: 25/100 (MEDIUM confidence) - Credit risk appetite: 54/100 (LOW confidence) - Duration support: 69/100 (MEDIUM confidence) Confirmation dashboard: Risk-on confirmations: 4/5 - Yes: SPY positive over T1 - Yes: QQQ outperforming SPY - Yes: HYG outperforming TLT - Yes: VIX below 20 - No: ETF breadth above 70% Defensive confirmations: 1/5 - No: USMV outperforming SPY - No: GLD outperforming SPY - No: XLU outperforming SPY - No: TLT positive over T1 - Yes: HY spreads widening 5/9 ETF Dashboard Market beta SPY (S&P 500): T1 +1.8%, T3 +2.8%, T6 +14.4%, T9 +13.1%, T12 +16.9% QQQ (Nasdaq 100): T1 +4.5%, T3 +3.1%, T6 +22.8%, T9 +20.2%, T12 +24.2% RSP (Equal Weight S&P 500): T1 -0.9%, T3 -0.8%, T6 +7.8%, T9 +10.1%, T12 +13.1% IWM (Russell 2000): T1 -4.2%, T3 -6.0%, T6 +6.5%, T9 +9.4%, T12 +14.8% DIA (Dow): T1 -2.1%, T3 -2.4%, T6 +6.9%, T9 +5.6%, T12 +11.4% Factor/style MTUM (Momentum): T1 +2.8%, T3 -1.2%, T6 +21.3%, T9 +24.2%, T12 +25.5% SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum): T1 +0.5%, T3 -1.7%, T6 +23.3%, T9 +26.3%, T12 +26.3% QUAL (Quality): T1 +3.2%, T3 +3.2%, T6 +13.4%, T9 +12.7%, T12 +16.5% SPHQ (S&P 500 Quality): T1 +1.5%, T3 -2.8%, T6 +8.4%, T9 +12.8%, T12 +17.3% COWZ (Free Cash Flow Yield): T1 -0.9%, T3 +8.1%, T6 +11.7%, T9 +13.7%, T12 +22.4% USMV (Min Vol): T1 +0.9%, T3 +2.6%, T6 +7.2%, T9 +7.3%, T12 +6.6% VLUE (Enhanced Value): T1 -1.1%, T3 +2.9%, T6 +32.0%, T9 +43.0%, T12 +61.5% VTV (Value): T1 -1.5%, T3 +0.7%, T6 +9.3%, T9 +14.9%, T12 +19.7% VUG (Growth): T1 +4.2%, T3 +4.6%, T6 +19.5%, T9 +11.8%, T12 +14.1% AVUV (Small Value): T1 -3.4%, T3 -2.8%, T6 +4.8%, T9 +15.3%, T12 +22.6% DFSV (Small Value Profitability): T1 -3.6%, T3 -1.4%, T6 +5.6%, T9 +13.9%, T12 +21.1% Sectors XLK (Technology): T1 +5.4%, T3 +6.6%, T6 +39.5%, T9 +35.5%, T12 +39.2% XLC (Communication Services): T1 +1.5%, T3 +0.7%, T6 -1.3%, T9 -3.4%, T12 -2.2% XLY (Consumer Discretionary): T1 -0.4%, T3 -4.5%, T6 -0.5%, T9 -7.0%, T12 -4.4% XLI (Industrials): T1 -1.7%, T3 -7.2%, T6 -1.7%, T9 +6.8%, T12 +10.4% XLF (Financials): T1 -4.6%, T3 -2.3%, T6 +6.4%, T9 -1.3%, T12 +2.4% XLE (Energy): T1 +0.5%, T3 +19.1%, T6 +15.3%, T9 +47.4%, T12 +50.0% XLB (Materials): T1 -3.7%, T3 -2.7%, T6 -3.8%, T9 +6.9%, T12 +12.2% XLV (Healthcare): T1 +1.3%, T3 +5.0%, T6 +13.5%, T9 +6.6%, T12 +18.5% XLP (Consumer Staples): T1 +1.1%, T3 -0.2%, T6 +1.3%, T9 +11.0%, T12 +9.6% XLU (Utilities): T1 -3.7%, T3 -8.9%, T6 -11.7%, T9 +0.1%, T12 -6.3% XLRE (Real Estate): T1 -5.1%, T3 -7.3%, T6 -2.8%, T9 +4.2%, T12 +1.8% Global/international ACWI (Global Equities): T1 -0.2%, T3 +1.3%, T6 +10.9%, T9 +11.8%, T12 +16.5% VXUS (Total International ex-US): T1 -3.6%, T3 -1.3%, T6 +4.4%, T9 +9.7%, T12 +16.2% VEA (Developed Markets ex-US): T1 -3.8%, T3 -1.3%, T6 +4.2%, T9 +10.4%, T12 +18.2% IEFA (EAFE Developed Markets): T1 -3.6%, T3 -1.4%, T6 +2.4%, T9 +6.7%, T12 +12.6% VWO (Emerging Markets): T1 -2.7%, T3 -1.1%, T6 +5.0%, T9 +7.3%, T12 +10.5% EEM (Emerging Markets): T1 -3.5%, T3 -1.2%, T6 +10.2%, T9 +16.9%, T12 +24.7% EWJ (Japan): T1 +0.3%, T3 +2.9%, T6 +10.9%, T9 +18.0%, T12 +23.9% EWU (United Kingdom): T1 -3.3%, T3 -0.8%, T6 -1.6%, T9 +5.4%, T12 +12.6% EWQ (France): T1 -8.0%, T3 -8.3%, T6 -7.8%, T9 -6.8%, T12 -2.9% EWG (Germany): T1 -5.5%, T3 -2.0%, T6 -0.3%, T9 -4.1%, T12 -1.4% MCHI (China): T1 -3.7%, T3 -3.3%, T6 -9.6%, T9 -16.5%, T12 -20.5% FXI (China Large Cap): T1 -3.2%, T3 -0.1%, T6 -7.1%, T9 -14.2%, T12 -16.8% INDA (India): T1 -6.4%, T3 -7.6%, T6 -7.2%, T9 -15.9%, T12 -13.8% EWC (Canada): T1 -4.4%, T3 -0.6%, T6 +3.8%, T9 +8.5%, T12 +16.1% EWA (Australia): T1 -4.7%, T3 -0.8%, T6 -3.8%, T9 +9.0%, T12 +7.3% Macro assets GLD (Gold): T1 -6.1%, T3 +0.4%, T6 -13.5%, T9 -7.5%, T12 +3.4% DBC (Commodities): T1 +0.2%, T3 +19.6%, T6 +14.6%, T9 +45.7%, T12 +49.7% TLT (Long Treasuries): T1 -4.3%, T3 -6.7%, T6 -8.1%, T9 -8.2%, T12 -8.6% IEF (Intermediate Treasuries): T1 -2.3%, T3 -3.5%, T6 -4.3%, T9 -4.5%, T12 -3.5% HYG (High Yield Credit): T1 -1.9%, T3 -1.8%, T6 -1.0%, T9 -0.3%, T12 +1.3% LQD (Investment Grade Credit): T1 -2.3%, T3 -3.4%, T6 -4.1%, T9 -4.0%, T12 -3.6% UUP (US Dollar): T1 +3.6%, T3 +2.1%, T6 +5.5%, T9 +6.5%, T12 +7.9% 6/9 Relative Leadership Growth/mega-cap vs broad market: QQQ-SPY | T1 +2.7%, T3 +0.4%, T6 +8.4%, T9 +7.1%, T12 +7.3% Equal-weight vs cap-weight: RSP-SPY | T1 -2.7%, T3 -3.5%, T6 -6.6%, T9 -3.0%, T12 -3.8% Small caps vs large caps: IWM-SPY | T1 -6.0%, T3 -8.7%, T6 -7.9%, T9 -3.7%, T12 -2.1% Momentum vs broad market: MTUM-SPY | T1 +1.0%, T3 -4.0%, T6 +6.9%, T9 +11.1%, T12 +8.6% S&P 500 momentum vs broad market: SPMO-SPY | T1 -1.2%, T3 -4.5%, T6 +8.9%, T9 +13.1%, T12 +9.4% Quality vs broad market: QUAL-SPY | T1 +1.4%, T3 +0.4%, T6 -1.0%, T9 -0.4%, T12 -0.4% S&P 500 quality vs broad market: SPHQ-SPY | T1 -0.3%, T3 -5.6%, T6 -6.0%, T9 -0.4%, T12 +0.4% Free-cash-flow yield vs broad market: COWZ-SPY | T1 -2.7%, T3 +5.4%, T6 -2.7%, T9 +0.6%, T12 +5.5% Minimum volatility vs broad market: USMV-SPY | T1 -0.9%, T3 -0.1%, T6 -7.2%, T9 -5.8%, T12 -10.3% Enhanced value vs momentum: VLUE-MTUM | T1 -3.9%, T3 +4.1%, T6 +10.7%, T9 +18.8%, T12 +36.0% Value vs growth: VTV-VUG | T1 -5.7%, T3 -3.9%, T6 -10.2%, T9 +3.1%, T12 +5.6% Consumer discretionary vs staples: XLY-XLP | T1 -1.6%, T3 -4.3%, T6 -1.8%, T9 -18.0%, T12 -14.1% Industrials vs utilities: XLI-XLU | T1 +1.9%, T3 +1.7%, T6 +10.0%, T9 +6.6%, T12 +16.7% Energy vs technology: XLE-XLK | T1 -4.9%, T3 +12.6%, T6 -24.2%, T9 +12.0%, T12 +10.8% Gold vs equities: GLD-SPY | T1 -7.9%, T3 -2.3%, T6 -27.9%, T9 -20.6%, T12 -13.5% Credit beta vs duration: HYG-TLT | T1 +2.4%, T3 +4.9%, T6 +7.1%, T9 +7.9%, T12 +9.9% Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY | T1 -2.0%, T3 -1.4%, T6 -3.5%, T9 -1.3%, T12 -0.4% Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY | T1 -5.4%, T3 -4.0%, T6 -10.0%, T9 -3.4%, T12 -0.7% Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY | T1 -5.6%, T3 -4.1%, T6 -10.2%, T9 -2.7%, T12 +1.3% EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY | T1 -5.3%, T3 -4.2%, T6 -12.0%, T9 -6.4%, T12 -4.3% Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY | T1 -4.5%, T3 -3.9%, T6 -9.4%, T9 -5.8%, T12 -6.4% Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA | T1 +1.1%, T3 +0.2%, T6 +0.8%, T9 -3.1%, T12 -7.7% Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA | T1 +3.9%, T3 +4.3%, T6 +8.5%, T9 +11.3%, T12 +11.2% China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO | T1 -1.0%, T3 -2.2%, T6 -14.7%, T9 -23.8%, T12 -31.0% India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO | T1 -3.7%, T3 -6.5%, T6 -12.2%, T9 -23.2%, T12 -24.4% 6B/9 Global / International Confirmation Global participation score: 11/100 (Weak or negative participation) Global relative-leadership score: 8/100 (U.S. leadership) Absolute global participation: - Global equities: ACWI -0.2% over T1 - Ex-U.S. equities: VXUS -3.6% over T1 - Developed ex-U.S.: VEA -3.8% over T1 - EAFE developed markets: IEFA -3.6% over T1 - Emerging markets: VWO -2.7% over T1 Relative global leadership: - Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY -2.0% over T1 - Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY -5.4% over T1 - Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY -5.6% over T1 - EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY -5.3% over T1 - Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -4.5% over T1 - Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA +1.1% over T1 - Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA +3.9% over T1 - China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO -1.0% over T1 - India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO -3.7% over T1 - Dollar backdrop: UUP T1 +3.6% Global read-through: Global equities are weak in absolute terms and are also lagging the U.S., so international markets are not confirming broad risk appetite. 7/9 U.S. Leaders and Laggards Strongest U.S. trend scores: + XLK (Technology): T1 +5.4%, T6 +39.5%, T12 +39.2%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -1.2%, Decelerating leadership + VLUE (Enhanced Value): T1 -1.1%, T6 +32.0%, T12 +61.5%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -6.4%, Decelerating leadership + XLE (Energy): T1 +0.5%, T6 +15.3%, T12 +50.0%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -2.1%, Persistent leadership + DBC (Commodities): T1 +0.2%, T6 +14.6%, T12 +49.7%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -2.3%, Persistent leadership + QQQ (Nasdaq 100): T1 +4.5%, T6 +22.8%, T12 +24.2%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +0.7%, Persistent leadership + MTUM (Momentum): T1 +2.8%, T6 +21.3%, T12 +25.5%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -0.7%, Persistent leadership + SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum): T1 +0.5%, T6 +23.3%, T12 +26.3%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -3.4%, Persistent leadership + VUG (Growth): T1 +4.2%, T6 +19.5%, T12 +14.1%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +1.0%, Decelerating leadership Weakest U.S. trend scores: - TLT (Long Treasuries): T1 -4.3%, T6 -8.1%, T12 -8.6%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -3.0%, Accelerating leadership - XLU (Utilities): T1 -3.7%, T6 -11.7%, T12 -6.3%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -1.7%, Accelerating leadership - GLD (Gold): T1 -6.1%, T6 -13.5%, T12 +3.4%, Persistence 2/5, Acceleration -3.9%, Long-term leader, short-term fading - IEF (Intermediate Treasuries): T1 -2.3%, T6 -4.3%, T12 -3.5%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -1.6%, Accelerating leadership - LQD (Investment Grade Credit): T1 -2.3%, T6 -4.1%, T12 -3.6%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -1.6%, Accelerating leadership - XLRE (Real Estate): T1 -5.1%, T6 -2.8%, T12 +1.8%, Persistence 2/5, Acceleration -4.6%, Long-term leader, short-term fading - XLY (Consumer Discretionary): T1 -0.4%, T6 -0.5%, T12 -4.4%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -0.4%, Weak / failed leadership - HYG (High Yield Credit): T1 -1.9%, T6 -1.0%, T12 +1.3%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -1.7%, Decelerating leadership 7B/9 Global Leaders and Laggards Strongest global trend scores: + EWJ (Japan): T1 +0.3%, T6 +10.9%, T12 +23.9%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -1.5%, Decelerating leadership + ACWI (Global Equities): T1 -0.2%, T6 +10.9%, T12 +16.5%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -2.0%, Decelerating leadership + EEM (Emerging Markets): T1 -3.5%, T6 +10.2%, T12 +24.7%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -5.2%, Decelerating leadership + VEA (Developed Markets ex-US): T1 -3.8%, T6 +4.2%, T12 +18.2%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -4.5%, Decelerating leadership + VXUS (Total International ex-US): T1 -3.6%, T6 +4.4%, T12 +16.2%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -4.3%, Decelerating leadership Weakest global trend scores: - INDA (India): T1 -6.4%, T6 -7.2%, T12 -13.8%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -5.2%, Weak / failed leadership - MCHI (China): T1 -3.7%, T6 -9.6%, T12 -20.5%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -2.1%, Weak / failed leadership - EWQ (France): T1 -8.0%, T6 -7.8%, T12 -2.9%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -6.7%, Weak / failed leadership - FXI (China Large Cap): T1 -3.2%, T6 -7.1%, T12 -16.8%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -2.0%, Weak / failed leadership - EWG (Germany): T1 -5.5%, T6 -0.3%, T12 -1.4%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -5.5%, Decelerating leadership 8/9 Macro Snapshot VIX: 15.41 (+0.33 d/d) as of 2026-10-08 3M Treasury: 4.23 (+0.01 d/d) as of 2026-10-08 2Y Treasury: 4.75 (-0.02 d/d) as of 2026-10-08 10Y Treasury: 5.22 (-0.06 d/d) as of 2026-10-08 10Y-2Y Curve: 0.47 (-0.04 d/d) as of 2026-10-08 HY Spread: 3.09 (+0.06 d/d) as of 2026-10-07 IG Spread: 0.82 (-0.01 d/d) as of 2026-10-07