# The Market Fieldbook — Daily Market Snapshot

**Snapshot generated:** 2026-08-18 08:30 UTC
**Latest market data:** 2026-08-14
**Current regime:** Mixed / Transitional
**Current subregime:** Mixed Confirmation
**Internal market health:** 93/100 (Healthy)
**Regime momentum:** 75/100 (Strengthening)
**Regime duration:** 4 snapshots
**History sample:** 53 snapshots

> **How to read this report**
>
> Start with the bottom line, then use the changes and watch list to understand what could strengthen or weaken it. Scores summarize multiple market measures on a 0–100 scale. The appendix preserves the underlying data and technical detail.

## The market in one minute

The market is giving mixed signals. Some risk indicators remain supportive, but leadership and participation are uneven. The evidence calls for patience and selectivity rather than a strong risk-on or risk-off conclusion. Risk-taking still has support. Strength is broad across the tracked market. Large growth stocks are leading. The average S&P 500 stock is supporting the market.

## Current field read

- Risk-taking still has support.
- Strength is broad across the tracked market.
- Large growth stocks are leading.
- The average S&P 500 stock is supporting the market.
- Credit markets are not signaling broad stress.
- Volatility remains contained.
- Defensive assets are gaining relative strength.

## What changed in the latest snapshot

- The risk-on score fell by 1.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- Defensive demand eased by 2.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- The credit-risk score rose by 8.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- VIX rose by 0.9 points versus the previous snapshot.

One snapshot can be noisy. A move becomes more meaningful when it continues across several readings or is confirmed by other measures.

## What the recent pattern is saying

1. Risk appetite is improving, and its score is 7.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
2. Growth leadership is improving, and its score is 29.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
3. Momentum leadership is improving, and its score is 7.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
4. Small-cap participation is improving, and its score is 8.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
5. Breadth is improving, and its score is 14.7 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
6. Credit risk appetite is improving, and its score is 7.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
7. Transition: Breadth participation is improving, suggesting broader market confirmation.
8. Persistence: Breadth has improved for 3 consecutive observations.
9. Persistence: Equal-weight participation has improved for 3 consecutive observations.
10. Persistence: Credit participation has improved for 3 consecutive observations.

## Confirmation check

### Risk appetite

- Risk-on confirmations: 5/5
- Yes: SPY positive over T1
- Yes: QQQ outperforming SPY
- Yes: HYG outperforming TLT
- Yes: VIX below 20
- Yes: ETF breadth above 70%
- Defensive confirmations: 1/5
- No: USMV outperforming SPY
- Yes: GLD outperforming SPY
- No: XLU outperforming SPY
- No: TLT positive over T1
- No: HY spreads widening

### Credit

- Credit diagnostics:
- Spread stress: HY spreads appear calm at 2.67.
- Credit ETF confirmation: HYG is outperforming TLT by +2.7% over T1.

### Defensive assets

- Defensive diagnostics:
- Equity defensives: 1/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
- Macro defensives: 1/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.

## Global confirmation

- Global participation score: 92/100 (Broad positive participation)
- Global relative-leadership score: 70/100 (Global leadership)
- Absolute global participation:
- Global equities: ACWI +4.1% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities: VXUS +4.3% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S.: VEA +5.1% over T1
- EAFE developed markets: IEFA +4.4% over T1
- Emerging markets: VWO +1.7% over T1
- Relative global leadership:
- Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY +0.7% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY +0.9% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY +1.7% over T1
- EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY +1.0% over T1
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -1.7% over T1
- Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA -3.3% over T1
- Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA +2.4% over T1
- China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO +2.3% over T1
- India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO +0.4% over T1
- Dollar backdrop: UUP T1 -0.8%
- Global read-through: Global equities are rising broadly and leading the U.S., a strong international confirmation signal.

**Plain-English global read:** Global equities are rising broadly and leading the U.S., a strong international confirmation signal.

## Why this matters

The market regime is more dependable when participation, leadership, credit, volatility, defensive assets, and global markets point in the same direction. When they disagree, the better interpretation is usually mixed or transitional rather than strongly bullish or bearish.

## What would change the conclusion

A stronger conclusion requires several independent measures to improve or deteriorate together and remain there across repeated snapshots.

Current warning evidence:

- No major tactical warning signals currently detected.

## What to watch in the next snapshots

1. Watch whether breadth participation is improving, suggesting broader market confirmation persists.
2. Watch the next reading: Risk appetite is improving, and its score is 7.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
3. Watch the next reading: Growth leadership is improving, and its score is 29.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
4. Watch the next reading: Momentum leadership is improving, and its score is 7.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.

## Important limitations

This report describes observed market conditions. It is not a forecast, trading signal, or personalized investment recommendation. Scores summarize the supplied evidence; they do not establish investor motives, company fundamentals, or future returns.

---

# Detailed Data Appendix

Daily ETF + Macro Strategist Note
Generated: 2026-08-18 08:30 UTC
Latest ETF price date: 2026-08-14
Lookbacks: T1=trailing 1M, T3=trailing 3M, T6=trailing 6M, T9=trailing 9M, T12=trailing 12M

1/9 Strategist Summary
Strategist summary:
- Current regime read: Mixed / Transitional.
- ETF breadth: T1 85% | T3 79% | T6 79% | T12 97%.
- QQQ vs SPY: +0.1% over T1.
- RSP vs SPY: +1.0% over T1.
- MTUM vs SPY: -2.6% over T1.
- IWM vs SPY: -0.2% over T1.
- HYG vs TLT: +2.7% over T1.
- CMA-related quality/cash-generation proxy: QUAL vs SPY -0.1%, SPHQ vs SPY -2.5%, COWZ vs SPY +6.1% over T1. These are fresh ETF proxies for quality/cash-generation behavior, not substitutes for the Ken French CMA factor.
- Reversal-related momentum-unwind proxy: MTUM vs SPY -2.6%, SPMO vs SPY +2.1%, VLUE vs MTUM +4.5% over T1. Weakening momentum leadership with value/recovery improvement can flag reversal pressure; this is a proxy, not the academic reversal factor.
- Global vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY +0.7% over T1.
- Ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY +0.9% over T1.
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -1.7% over T1.
- Volatility is contained with VIX at 15.19.

2/9 What Changed Since Prior Run
- Risk-on appetite deteriorated by 1.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Defensive demand eased by 2.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Credit risk appetite improved by 8.0 pts versus the prior run.
- VIX rose by 0.9 pts versus the prior run.

3/9 Tactical Signal Dashboard
- Risk backdrop: constructive.
- Breadth: healthy.
- Growth leadership: leading.
- Equal-weight confirmation: confirming.
- Credit: confirming risk appetite.
- Volatility: contained.
- Defensive demand: rising.

3B/9 Regime Transition Monitor
- Breadth participation is improving, suggesting broader market confirmation.

Tactical warnings:
- No major tactical warning signals currently detected.

3C/9 Historical Context + Divergence
- Concentration risk score: 48/100 (Moderate concentration risk / mixed participation)

Historical percentiles:
- Risk appetite: 98th percentile
- T1 breadth: 98th percentile
- QQQ vs SPY: 70th percentile
- RSP vs SPY: 43rd percentile
- Credit beta vs duration: 79th percentile
- VIX: 11th percentile

Regime momentum:
- Risk appetite: improving (+7.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Growth leadership: improving (+29.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Momentum leadership: improving (+7.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Small-cap participation: improving (+8.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Breadth: improving (+14.7 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Credit risk appetite: improving (+7.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Defensive demand: deteriorating (-11.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)

Statistical abnormality monitor:
- Breadth is moderately abnormal (+1.7σ, above normal).
- Mega-cap leadership is historically extreme (+2.0σ, above normal).
- Equal-weight participation is normal (+0.2σ, above normal).
- Small-cap participation is moderately abnormal (+1.1σ, above normal).
- Credit participation is normal (-0.3σ, below normal).

Percentile monitor:
- Breadth is historically rare (98th percentile).
- Mega-cap leadership is above average (70th percentile).
- Equal-weight participation is near normal (43rd percentile).
- Small-cap participation is near normal (45th percentile).
- Credit participation is above average (79th percentile).

Signal deterioration monitor:
- Breadth has improved for 3 consecutive observations.
- Equal-weight participation has improved for 3 consecutive observations.
- Credit participation has improved for 3 consecutive observations.

3D/9 Signal Defensibility Diagnostics
- Market subregime: Mixed Confirmation
Credit diagnostics:
- Spread stress: HY spreads appear calm at 2.67.
- Credit ETF confirmation: HYG is outperforming TLT by +2.7% over T1.
Defensive diagnostics:
- Equity defensives: 1/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
- Macro defensives: 1/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
Duration diagnostics:
- Treasury ETF trend: TLT T1 -2.2%; IEF T1 -0.4%.
- Rate impulse: 2Y 4.19 (+0.02 d/d); 10Y 4.72 (+0.04 d/d); 10Y-2Y curve 0.53 (+0.02 d/d).

4/9 Market State Dashboard
Market regime: Mixed / Transitional
Current regime duration: 4 runs
Internal health: 93/100 (Healthy)
Regime momentum: 75/100 (Strengthening)

Regime scorecard:
- Risk-on appetite: 94/100 (HIGH confidence)
- Defensive demand: 44/100 (LOW confidence)
- Growth leadership: 52/100 (LOW confidence)
- Small-cap participation: 48/100 (LOW confidence)
- Momentum leadership: 25/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
- Real asset/inflation leadership: 84/100 (HIGH confidence)
- Credit risk appetite: 75/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
- Duration support: 35/100 (MEDIUM confidence)

Confirmation dashboard:
Risk-on confirmations: 5/5
- Yes: SPY positive over T1
- Yes: QQQ outperforming SPY
- Yes: HYG outperforming TLT
- Yes: VIX below 20
- Yes: ETF breadth above 70%
Defensive confirmations: 1/5
- No: USMV outperforming SPY
- Yes: GLD outperforming SPY
- No: XLU outperforming SPY
- No: TLT positive over T1
- No: HY spreads widening

5/9 ETF Dashboard

Market beta
SPY (S&P 500): T1 +3.4%, T3 +4.0%, T6 +14.6%, T9 +14.6%, T12 +21.7%
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): T1 +3.6%, T3 +1.7%, T6 +22.0%, T9 +18.0%, T12 +26.6%
RSP (Equal Weight S&P 500): T1 +4.4%, T3 +9.7%, T6 +10.6%, T9 +20.2%, T12 +24.0%
IWM (Russell 2000): T1 +3.2%, T3 +7.5%, T6 +18.0%, T9 +25.9%, T12 +33.3%
DIA (Dow): T1 +2.3%, T3 +7.6%, T6 +9.3%, T9 +13.2%, T12 +21.2%

Factor/style
MTUM (Momentum): T1 +0.8%, T3 +3.6%, T6 +23.5%, T9 +29.1%, T12 +30.0%
SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum): T1 +5.5%, T3 +4.1%, T6 +30.2%, T9 +28.3%, T12 +31.2%
QUAL (Quality): T1 +3.3%, T3 +7.4%, T6 +11.1%, T9 +17.7%, T12 +22.8%
SPHQ (S&P 500 Quality): T1 +0.9%, T3 +5.8%, T6 +10.5%, T9 +20.8%, T12 +23.2%
COWZ (Free Cash Flow Yield): T1 +9.5%, T3 +12.0%, T6 +11.2%, T9 +24.9%, T12 +29.8%
USMV (Min Vol): T1 +3.4%, T3 +7.8%, T6 +6.2%, T9 +10.8%, T12 +10.6%
VLUE (Enhanced Value): T1 +5.3%, T3 +10.6%, T6 +35.9%, T9 +59.9%, T12 +81.8%
VTV (Value): T1 +4.6%, T3 +9.7%, T6 +11.2%, T9 +23.6%, T12 +29.4%
VUG (Growth): T1 +3.2%, T3 +1.1%, T6 +16.8%, T9 +8.7%, T12 +16.3%
AVUV (Small Value): T1 +3.3%, T3 +9.7%, T6 +12.4%, T9 +32.0%, T12 +36.9%
DFSV (Small Value Profitability): T1 +5.1%, T3 +10.1%, T6 +10.9%, T9 +32.9%, T12 +38.8%

Sectors
XLK (Technology): T1 +7.0%, T3 +6.0%, T6 +36.8%, T9 +30.2%, T12 +42.4%
XLC (Communication Services): T1 +1.3%, T3 -2.3%, T6 -3.4%, T9 +1.7%, T12 +5.7%
XLY (Consumer Discretionary): T1 +2.0%, T3 +0.1%, T6 +0.3%, T9 +0.8%, T12 +6.2%
XLI (Industrials): T1 +3.4%, T3 +6.8%, T6 +7.9%, T9 +23.3%, T12 +25.2%
XLF (Financials): T1 +2.5%, T3 +13.8%, T6 +13.5%, T9 +10.6%, T12 +11.9%
XLE (Energy): T1 +8.6%, T3 +7.4%, T6 +16.3%, T9 +38.3%, T12 +49.1%
XLB (Materials): T1 +3.8%, T3 +1.1%, T6 +0.1%, T9 +24.1%, T12 +21.4%
XLV (Healthcare): T1 +3.4%, T3 +14.6%, T6 +8.2%, T9 +12.5%, T12 +27.8%
XLP (Consumer Staples): T1 +0.3%, T3 +2.0%, T6 -2.3%, T9 +13.5%, T12 +7.1%
XLU (Utilities): T1 -2.6%, T3 -0.7%, T6 -0.8%, T9 +0.9%, T12 +5.3%
XLRE (Real Estate): T1 +1.8%, T3 +2.4%, T6 +7.3%, T9 +12.6%, T12 +14.2%

Global/international
ACWI (Global Equities): T1 +4.1%, T3 +5.0%, T6 +10.8%, T9 +18.3%, T12 +25.0%
VXUS (Total International ex-US): T1 +4.3%, T3 +3.6%, T6 +7.4%, T9 +18.9%, T12 +26.3%
VEA (Developed Markets ex-US): T1 +5.1%, T3 +4.8%, T6 +8.2%, T9 +22.1%, T12 +29.0%
IEFA (EAFE Developed Markets): T1 +4.4%, T3 +6.6%, T6 +5.6%, T9 +19.4%, T12 +24.5%
VWO (Emerging Markets): T1 +1.7%, T3 +1.3%, T6 +3.7%, T9 +12.5%, T12 +21.8%
EEM (Emerging Markets): T1 +1.6%, T3 -0.4%, T6 +8.8%, T9 +22.3%, T12 +36.1%
EWJ (Japan): T1 +6.9%, T3 +7.3%, T6 +5.8%, T9 +22.3%, T12 +29.2%
EWU (United Kingdom): T1 +4.1%, T3 +4.9%, T6 +4.1%, T9 +17.1%, T12 +23.1%
EWQ (France): T1 +5.9%, T3 +6.8%, T6 +3.4%, T9 +12.5%, T12 +14.5%
EWG (Germany): T1 +7.1%, T3 +5.9%, T6 +1.6%, T9 +11.5%, T12 +6.4%
MCHI (China): T1 +4.0%, T3 -6.3%, T6 -11.3%, T9 -13.0%, T12 -4.3%
FXI (China Large Cap): T1 +1.8%, T3 -8.1%, T6 -10.9%, T9 -12.8%, T12 -6.3%
INDA (India): T1 +2.2%, T3 +4.8%, T6 -7.4%, T9 -7.4%, T12 -4.8%
EWC (Canada): T1 +6.0%, T3 +7.5%, T6 +11.1%, T9 +26.8%, T12 +33.2%
EWA (Australia): T1 +4.6%, T3 +1.6%, T6 +4.3%, T9 +15.6%, T12 +14.8%

Macro assets
GLD (Gold): T1 +10.0%, T3 -6.0%, T6 -11.1%, T9 +5.7%, T12 +29.8%
DBC (Commodities): T1 +5.9%, T3 -3.4%, T6 +23.7%, T9 +35.7%, T12 +42.0%
TLT (Long Treasuries): T1 -2.2%, T3 -2.3%, T6 -6.0%, T9 -5.7%, T12 -2.1%
IEF (Intermediate Treasuries): T1 -0.4%, T3 -0.4%, T6 -1.4%, T9 -0.8%, T12 +1.4%
HYG (High Yield Credit): T1 +0.5%, T3 +1.3%, T6 +1.6%, T9 +3.7%, T12 +5.3%
LQD (Investment Grade Credit): T1 -0.8%, T3 -1.9%, T6 -2.2%, T9 -1.4%, T12 +1.0%
UUP (US Dollar): T1 -0.8%, T3 +1.8%, T6 +4.8%, T9 +3.3%, T12 +6.4%

6/9 Relative Leadership
Growth/mega-cap vs broad market: QQQ-SPY | T1 +0.1%, T3 -2.4%, T6 +7.4%, T9 +3.4%, T12 +4.9%
Equal-weight vs cap-weight: RSP-SPY | T1 +1.0%, T3 +5.7%, T6 -4.0%, T9 +5.6%, T12 +2.3%
Small caps vs large caps: IWM-SPY | T1 -0.2%, T3 +3.5%, T6 +3.5%, T9 +11.2%, T12 +11.6%
Momentum vs broad market: MTUM-SPY | T1 -2.6%, T3 -0.5%, T6 +8.9%, T9 +14.5%, T12 +8.3%
S&P 500 momentum vs broad market: SPMO-SPY | T1 +2.1%, T3 +0.1%, T6 +15.6%, T9 +13.7%, T12 +9.5%
Quality vs broad market: QUAL-SPY | T1 -0.1%, T3 +3.4%, T6 -3.4%, T9 +3.1%, T12 +1.1%
S&P 500 quality vs broad market: SPHQ-SPY | T1 -2.5%, T3 +1.8%, T6 -4.1%, T9 +6.2%, T12 +1.5%
Free-cash-flow yield vs broad market: COWZ-SPY | T1 +6.1%, T3 +7.9%, T6 -3.3%, T9 +10.3%, T12 +8.1%
Minimum volatility vs broad market: USMV-SPY | T1 -0.0%, T3 +3.8%, T6 -8.3%, T9 -3.8%, T12 -11.1%
Enhanced value vs momentum: VLUE-MTUM | T1 +4.5%, T3 +7.0%, T6 +12.5%, T9 +30.8%, T12 +51.7%
Value vs growth: VTV-VUG | T1 +1.4%, T3 +8.7%, T6 -5.6%, T9 +14.9%, T12 +13.1%
Consumer discretionary vs staples: XLY-XLP | T1 +1.7%, T3 -1.9%, T6 +2.6%, T9 -12.7%, T12 -0.9%
Industrials vs utilities: XLI-XLU | T1 +6.0%, T3 +7.5%, T6 +8.7%, T9 +22.4%, T12 +19.9%
Energy vs technology: XLE-XLK | T1 +1.5%, T3 +1.4%, T6 -20.6%, T9 +8.1%, T12 +6.7%
Gold vs equities: GLD-SPY | T1 +6.6%, T3 -10.1%, T6 -25.6%, T9 -8.9%, T12 +8.1%
Credit beta vs duration: HYG-TLT | T1 +2.7%, T3 +3.5%, T6 +7.5%, T9 +9.3%, T12 +7.5%
Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY | T1 +0.7%, T3 +1.0%, T6 -3.8%, T9 +3.6%, T12 +3.2%
Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY | T1 +0.9%, T3 -0.4%, T6 -7.2%, T9 +4.3%, T12 +4.6%
Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY | T1 +1.7%, T3 +0.8%, T6 -6.4%, T9 +7.5%, T12 +7.2%
EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY | T1 +1.0%, T3 +2.5%, T6 -8.9%, T9 +4.8%, T12 +2.8%
Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY | T1 -1.7%, T3 -2.7%, T6 -10.8%, T9 -2.1%, T12 +0.1%
Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA | T1 -3.3%, T3 -3.5%, T6 -4.4%, T9 -9.5%, T12 -7.1%
Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA | T1 +2.4%, T3 +0.7%, T6 +0.1%, T9 +2.9%, T12 +4.8%
China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO | T1 +2.3%, T3 -7.6%, T6 -15.0%, T9 -25.5%, T12 -26.2%
India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO | T1 +0.4%, T3 +3.4%, T6 -11.1%, T9 -19.9%, T12 -26.6%

6B/9 Global / International Confirmation
Global participation score: 92/100 (Broad positive participation)
Global relative-leadership score: 70/100 (Global leadership)

Absolute global participation:
- Global equities: ACWI +4.1% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities: VXUS +4.3% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S.: VEA +5.1% over T1
- EAFE developed markets: IEFA +4.4% over T1
- Emerging markets: VWO +1.7% over T1

Relative global leadership:
- Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY +0.7% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY +0.9% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY +1.7% over T1
- EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY +1.0% over T1
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -1.7% over T1
- Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA -3.3% over T1
- Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA +2.4% over T1
- China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO +2.3% over T1
- India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO +0.4% over T1
- Dollar backdrop: UUP T1 -0.8%

Global read-through: Global equities are rising broadly and leading the U.S., a strong international confirmation signal.

7/9 U.S. Leaders and Laggards
Strongest U.S. trend scores:
+ VLUE (Enhanced Value): T1 +5.3%, T6 +35.9%, T12 +81.8%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -0.7%, Decelerating leadership
+ XLK (Technology): T1 +7.0%, T6 +36.8%, T12 +42.4%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +0.9%, Persistent leadership
+ XLE (Energy): T1 +8.6%, T6 +16.3%, T12 +49.1%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +5.9%, Persistent / accelerating
+ SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum): T1 +5.5%, T6 +30.2%, T12 +31.2%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +0.5%, Persistent leadership
+ DBC (Commodities): T1 +5.9%, T6 +23.7%, T12 +42.0%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration +1.9%, Persistent leadership
+ DFSV (Small Value Profitability): T1 +5.1%, T6 +10.9%, T12 +38.8%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +3.3%, Persistent / accelerating
+ COWZ (Free Cash Flow Yield): T1 +9.5%, T6 +11.2%, T12 +29.8%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +7.7%, Persistent / accelerating
+ AVUV (Small Value): T1 +3.3%, T6 +12.4%, T12 +36.9%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +1.2%, Decelerating leadership

Weakest U.S. trend scores:
- TLT (Long Treasuries): T1 -2.2%, T6 -6.0%, T12 -2.1%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -1.2%, Accelerating leadership
- LQD (Investment Grade Credit): T1 -0.8%, T6 -2.2%, T12 +1.0%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -0.4%, Accelerating leadership
- IEF (Intermediate Treasuries): T1 -0.4%, T6 -1.4%, T12 +1.4%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -0.2%, Long-term leader, short-term fading
- XLU (Utilities): T1 -2.6%, T6 -0.8%, T12 +5.3%, Persistence 2/5, Acceleration -2.4%, Long-term leader, short-term fading
- XLC (Communication Services): T1 +1.3%, T6 -3.4%, T12 +5.7%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration +1.9%, Accelerating leadership
- XLY (Consumer Discretionary): T1 +2.0%, T6 +0.3%, T12 +6.2%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +1.9%, Persistent leadership
- HYG (High Yield Credit): T1 +0.5%, T6 +1.6%, T12 +5.3%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +0.3%, Decelerating leadership
- UUP (US Dollar): T1 -0.8%, T6 +4.8%, T12 +6.4%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -1.6%, Decelerating leadership

7B/9 Global Leaders and Laggards
Strongest global trend scores:
+ EWC (Canada): T1 +6.0%, T6 +11.1%, T12 +33.2%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +4.1%, Persistent / accelerating
+ EWJ (Japan): T1 +6.9%, T6 +5.8%, T12 +29.2%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +5.9%, Persistent / accelerating
+ VEA (Developed Markets ex-US): T1 +5.1%, T6 +8.2%, T12 +29.0%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +3.7%, Persistent / accelerating
+ ACWI (Global Equities): T1 +4.1%, T6 +10.8%, T12 +25.0%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +2.3%, Persistent / accelerating
+ EEM (Emerging Markets): T1 +1.6%, T6 +8.8%, T12 +36.1%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration +0.1%, Persistent leadership

Weakest global trend scores:
- FXI (China Large Cap): T1 +1.8%, T6 -10.9%, T12 -6.3%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration +3.6%, Accelerating leadership
- MCHI (China): T1 +4.0%, T6 -11.3%, T12 -4.3%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration +5.9%, Accelerating leadership
- INDA (India): T1 +2.2%, T6 -7.4%, T12 -4.8%, Persistence 2/5, Acceleration +3.4%, Emerging tactical leadership
- EWG (Germany): T1 +7.1%, T6 +1.6%, T12 +6.4%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +6.8%, Persistent / accelerating
- VWO (Emerging Markets): T1 +1.7%, T6 +3.7%, T12 +21.8%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +1.1%, Persistent leadership

8/9 Macro Snapshot
VIX: 15.19 (+0.94 d/d) as of 2026-08-17
3M Treasury: 3.87 (+0.01 d/d) as of 2026-08-17
2Y Treasury: 4.19 (+0.02 d/d) as of 2026-08-17
10Y Treasury: 4.72 (+0.04 d/d) as of 2026-08-17
10Y-2Y Curve: 0.53 (+0.02 d/d) as of 2026-08-17
HY Spread: 2.67 (-0.04 d/d) as of 2026-08-14
IG Spread: 0.80 (+0.01 d/d) as of 2026-08-14