# The Market Fieldbook — Daily Market Snapshot

**Snapshot generated:** 2026-07-23 08:30 UTC
**Latest market data:** 2026-07-22
**Current regime:** Mixed / Transitional
**Current subregime:** Mixed Confirmation
**Internal market health:** 64/100 (Mixed)
**Regime momentum:** 48/100 (Stable)
**Regime duration:** 4 snapshots
**History sample:** 36 snapshots

> **How to read this report**
>
> This is not a recap of one trading session. It is a recurring measurement of participation, leadership, credit, volatility, defensive behavior, and global confirmation. Current levels, latest changes, and trailing multi-snapshot direction are separate evidence types.

## The market in one minute

The current market regime is **Mixed / Transitional**, with a **Mixed Confirmation** subregime. Internal market health is **64/100 (Mixed)**, and regime momentum is **48/100 (Stable)**.

The current evidence should be interpreted from the supplied signal levels and repeated observations rather than from a single trading session.

## Current field read

- Risk backdrop: constructive.
- Breadth: mixed.
- Growth leadership: lagging.
- Equal-weight confirmation: confirming.
- Credit: confirming risk appetite.
- Volatility: contained.
- Defensive demand: rising.

## What changed in the latest snapshot

- Risk-on appetite deteriorated by 4.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Growth leadership deteriorated by 1.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Small-cap participation deteriorated by 18.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Defensive demand increased by 4.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Credit risk appetite deteriorated by 11.0 pts versus the prior run.
- T1 ETF breadth deteriorated by 5.9 pts versus the prior run.
- HYG vs TLT deteriorated by 0.6 percentage points versus the prior run.

These are changes between snapshots. They do not by themselves establish a persistent trend.

## What the pattern is saying

1. Risk appetite: stable (-3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
2. Growth leadership: deteriorating (-7.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
3. Momentum leadership: stable (-1.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
4. Small-cap participation: deteriorating (-9.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
5. Breadth: stable (-2.9 pts vs 5 runs ago)
6. Credit risk appetite: stable (+3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
7. Defensive demand: improving (+37.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
8. Transition monitor: Defensive demand is rising meaningfully versus recent runs.
9. Persistence check: Mega-cap leadership has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations.
10. Persistence check: Equal-weight participation has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations.
11. Persistence check: Small-cap participation has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations.

## Risk, credit, and defensive confirmation

### Risk confirmations

- Risk-on confirmations: 3/5
- Yes: SPY positive over T1
- No: QQQ outperforming SPY
- Yes: HYG outperforming TLT
- Yes: VIX below 20
- No: ETF breadth above 70%
- Defensive confirmations: 2/5
- Yes: USMV outperforming SPY
- No: GLD outperforming SPY
- Yes: XLU outperforming SPY
- No: TLT positive over T1
- No: HY spreads widening

### Credit diagnostics

- Credit diagnostics:
- Spread stress: HY spreads appear calm at 2.69.
- Credit ETF confirmation: HYG is outperforming TLT by +2.7% over T1.

### Defensive diagnostics

- Defensive diagnostics:
- Equity defensives: 4/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
- Macro defensives: 0/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.

## Global confirmation

- Global risk appetite score: 38/100 (Mixed global confirmation)
- Global relative leadership:
- Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY -1.3% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY -3.4% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY -3.0% over T1
- EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY -0.7% over T1
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -4.4% over T1
- Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA -1.3% over T1
- Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA -4.6% over T1
- China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO +5.3% over T1
- India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO +0.6% over T1
- Dollar backdrop: UUP T1 +0.3%
- Global read-through: global equities are lagging U.S. equities; ex-U.S. equities are not confirming U.S. leadership; emerging markets are lagging; developed ex-U.S. is leading EM.

## Why this matters

The regime conclusion is more reliable when breadth, leadership, credit, volatility, defensive evidence, and global confirmation agree across repeated snapshots. Divergence among these measures supports a mixed or transitional interpretation rather than a stronger conclusion.

## What would change the conclusion

The conclusion should change only when improvement or deterioration is confirmed across several supplied signals and persists across repeated snapshots.

Current tactical warning evidence:

- No major tactical warning signals currently detected.

## What to watch in the next snapshots

1. Check whether this transition persists: Defensive demand is rising meaningfully versus recent runs.
2. Track the next reading for: Risk appetite: stable (-3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
3. Track the next reading for: Growth leadership: deteriorating (-7.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
4. Track the next reading for: Momentum leadership: stable (-1.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
5. Track the next reading for: Small-cap participation: deteriorating (-9.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
6. Track the next reading for: Breadth: stable (-2.9 pts vs 5 runs ago)

## Important limitations

This is an observational regime report, not a forecast, trading signal, or personalized investment recommendation. Internal scores measure supplied market evidence and do not establish investor motives, company fundamentals, or future returns.

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# Detailed Data Appendix

Daily ETF + Macro Strategist Note
Generated: 2026-07-23 08:30 UTC
Latest ETF price date: 2026-07-22
Lookbacks: T1=trailing 1M, T3=trailing 3M, T6=trailing 6M, T9=trailing 9M, T12=trailing 12M

1/9 Strategist Summary
Strategist summary:
- Current regime read: Mixed / Transitional.
- ETF breadth: T1 53% | T3 79% | T6 82% | T12 100%.
- QQQ vs SPY: -4.8% over T1.
- RSP vs SPY: +1.1% over T1.
- MTUM vs SPY: -9.4% over T1.
- IWM vs SPY: -1.9% over T1.
- HYG vs TLT: +2.7% over T1.
- CMA-related quality/cash-generation proxy: QUAL vs SPY +0.3%, SPHQ vs SPY -5.4%, COWZ vs SPY +4.3% over T1. These are fresh ETF proxies for quality/cash-generation behavior, not substitutes for the Ken French CMA factor.
- Reversal-related momentum-unwind proxy: MTUM vs SPY -9.4%, SPMO vs SPY -7.6%, VLUE vs MTUM +4.7% over T1. Weakening momentum leadership with value/recovery improvement can flag reversal pressure; this is a proxy, not the academic reversal factor.
- Global vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY -1.3% over T1.
- Ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY -3.4% over T1.
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -4.4% over T1.
- Volatility is contained with VIX at 16.64.

2/9 What Changed Since Prior Run
- Risk-on appetite deteriorated by 4.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Growth leadership deteriorated by 1.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Small-cap participation deteriorated by 18.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Defensive demand increased by 4.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Credit risk appetite deteriorated by 11.0 pts versus the prior run.
- T1 ETF breadth deteriorated by 5.9 pts versus the prior run.
- HYG vs TLT deteriorated by 0.6 percentage points versus the prior run.

3/9 Tactical Signal Dashboard
- Risk backdrop: constructive.
- Breadth: mixed.
- Growth leadership: lagging.
- Equal-weight confirmation: confirming.
- Credit: confirming risk appetite.
- Volatility: contained.
- Defensive demand: rising.

3B/9 Regime Transition Monitor
- Defensive demand is rising meaningfully versus recent runs.

Tactical warnings:
- No major tactical warning signals currently detected.

3C/9 Historical Context + Divergence
- Concentration risk score: 34/100 (Low concentration risk / broad participation)

Historical percentiles:
- Risk appetite: 14th percentile
- T1 breadth: 9th percentile
- QQQ vs SPY: 0th percentile
- RSP vs SPY: 31st percentile
- Credit beta vs duration: 94th percentile
- VIX: 40th percentile

Regime momentum:
- Risk appetite: stable (-3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Growth leadership: deteriorating (-7.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Momentum leadership: stable (-1.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Small-cap participation: deteriorating (-9.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Breadth: stable (-2.9 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Credit risk appetite: stable (+3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Defensive demand: improving (+37.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)

Statistical abnormality monitor:
- Breadth is moderately abnormal (-1.4σ, below normal).
- Mega-cap leadership is moderately abnormal (-1.6σ, below normal).
- Equal-weight participation is normal (-0.7σ, below normal).
- Small-cap participation is moderately abnormal (-1.9σ, below normal).
- Credit participation is moderately abnormal (+1.2σ, above normal).

Percentile monitor:
- Breadth is very weak (11th percentile).
- Mega-cap leadership is historically rare weakness (3rd percentile).
- Equal-weight participation is below average (33rd percentile).
- Small-cap participation is very weak (6th percentile).
- Credit participation is very strong (94th percentile).

Signal deterioration monitor:
- Mega-cap leadership has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations.
- Equal-weight participation has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations.
- Small-cap participation has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations.

3D/9 Signal Defensibility Diagnostics
- Market subregime: Mixed Confirmation
Credit diagnostics:
- Spread stress: HY spreads appear calm at 2.69.
- Credit ETF confirmation: HYG is outperforming TLT by +2.7% over T1.
Defensive diagnostics:
- Equity defensives: 4/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
- Macro defensives: 0/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
Duration diagnostics:
- Treasury ETF trend: TLT T1 -2.7%; IEF T1 -0.6%.
- Rate impulse: 2Y 4.31 (+0.05 d/d); 10Y 4.67 (+0.04 d/d); 10Y-2Y curve 0.36 (-0.01 d/d).

4/9 Market State Dashboard
Market regime: Mixed / Transitional
Current regime duration: 4 runs
Internal health: 64/100 (Mixed)
Regime momentum: 48/100 (Stable)

Regime scorecard:
- Risk-on appetite: 74/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
- Defensive demand: 56/100 (LOW confidence)
- Growth leadership: 19/100 (HIGH confidence)
- Small-cap participation: 33/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
- Momentum leadership: 18/100 (HIGH confidence)
- Real asset/inflation leadership: 58/100 (LOW confidence)
- Credit risk appetite: 66/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
- Duration support: 35/100 (MEDIUM confidence)

Confirmation dashboard:
Risk-on confirmations: 3/5
- Yes: SPY positive over T1
- No: QQQ outperforming SPY
- Yes: HYG outperforming TLT
- Yes: VIX below 20
- No: ETF breadth above 70%
Defensive confirmations: 2/5
- Yes: USMV outperforming SPY
- No: GLD outperforming SPY
- Yes: XLU outperforming SPY
- No: TLT positive over T1
- No: HY spreads widening

5/9 ETF Dashboard

Market beta
SPY (S&P 500): T1 +0.4%, T3 +6.4%, T6 +10.9%, T9 +13.4%, T12 +20.2%
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): T1 -4.4%, T3 +9.6%, T6 +16.3%, T9 +17.2%, T12 +25.6%
RSP (Equal Weight S&P 500): T1 +1.5%, T3 +5.4%, T6 +9.4%, T9 +14.5%, T12 +17.8%
IWM (Russell 2000): T1 -1.5%, T3 +7.3%, T6 +12.4%, T9 +21.6%, T12 +34.1%
DIA (Dow): T1 +0.9%, T3 +6.5%, T6 +8.3%, T9 +14.2%, T12 +19.4%

Factor/style
MTUM (Momentum): T1 -9.0%, T3 +15.8%, T6 +24.5%, T9 +24.9%, T12 +32.1%
SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum): T1 -7.2%, T3 +18.7%, T6 +28.8%, T9 +25.5%, T12 +32.7%
QUAL (Quality): T1 +0.7%, T3 +6.0%, T6 +9.4%, T9 +13.1%, T12 +19.0%
SPHQ (S&P 500 Quality): T1 -4.9%, T3 +7.1%, T6 +12.1%, T9 +16.9%, T12 +20.6%
COWZ (Free Cash Flow Yield): T1 +4.7%, T3 +2.1%, T6 +6.0%, T9 +15.3%, T12 +17.6%
USMV (Min Vol): T1 +2.1%, T3 +2.6%, T6 +3.6%, T9 +3.5%, T12 +5.1%
VLUE (Enhanced Value): T1 -4.3%, T3 +24.0%, T6 +37.9%, T9 +57.5%, T12 +74.8%
VTV (Value): T1 +0.8%, T3 +8.6%, T6 +13.2%, T9 +20.0%, T12 +26.2%
VUG (Growth): T1 -0.1%, T3 +5.2%, T6 +9.0%, T9 +7.8%, T12 +14.7%
AVUV (Small Value): T1 +2.9%, T3 +7.3%, T6 +18.6%, T9 +31.0%, T12 +36.4%
DFSV (Small Value Profitability): T1 +4.0%, T3 +7.1%, T6 +15.8%, T9 +28.5%, T12 +33.0%

Sectors
XLK (Technology): T1 -6.2%, T3 +16.7%, T6 +27.4%, T9 +27.0%, T12 +38.7%
XLC (Communication Services): T1 +2.2%, T3 -6.6%, T6 -3.2%, T9 -4.1%, T12 +2.8%
XLY (Consumer Discretionary): T1 -0.8%, T3 -4.0%, T6 -3.9%, T9 -2.1%, T12 +3.0%
XLI (Industrials): T1 -1.6%, T3 +4.6%, T6 +9.9%, T9 +18.9%, T12 +20.2%
XLF (Financials): T1 +4.4%, T3 +7.5%, T6 +6.3%, T9 +8.7%, T12 +8.6%
XLE (Energy): T1 +9.5%, T3 +6.7%, T6 +26.1%, T9 +40.8%, T12 +43.5%
XLB (Materials): T1 -1.5%, T3 -1.5%, T6 +6.3%, T9 +17.2%, T12 +14.1%
XLV (Healthcare): T1 +6.2%, T3 +9.7%, T6 +3.5%, T9 +12.7%, T12 +23.7%
XLP (Consumer Staples): T1 +2.7%, T3 +3.8%, T6 +3.7%, T9 +8.0%, T12 +7.2%
XLU (Utilities): T1 +2.7%, T3 +2.8%, T6 +8.3%, T9 +2.4%, T12 +12.4%
XLRE (Real Estate): T1 +2.2%, T3 +3.7%, T6 +10.4%, T9 +9.9%, T12 +10.9%

Global/international
ACWI (Global Equities): T1 -0.9%, T3 +5.7%, T6 +10.4%, T9 +14.4%, T12 +21.9%
VXUS (Total International ex-US): T1 -3.0%, T3 +3.6%, T6 +9.3%, T9 +16.6%, T12 +25.0%
VEA (Developed Markets ex-US): T1 -2.6%, T3 +4.5%, T6 +10.4%, T9 +18.9%, T12 +27.2%
IEFA (EAFE Developed Markets): T1 -0.3%, T3 +3.9%, T6 +7.9%, T9 +14.2%, T12 +21.1%
VWO (Emerging Markets): T1 -4.0%, T3 +1.2%, T6 +6.0%, T9 +10.4%, T12 +18.9%
EEM (Emerging Markets): T1 -8.7%, T3 +4.9%, T6 +14.0%, T9 +22.3%, T12 +34.1%
EWJ (Japan): T1 -4.9%, T3 +6.4%, T6 +10.7%, T9 +17.3%, T12 +32.4%
EWU (United Kingdom): T1 +3.4%, T3 +2.1%, T6 +7.2%, T9 +16.1%, T12 +22.1%
EWQ (France): T1 +0.7%, T3 +2.7%, T6 +4.6%, T9 +3.6%, T12 +8.9%
EWG (Germany): T1 -0.6%, T3 +0.2%, T6 -0.9%, T9 +1.8%, T12 -0.7%
MCHI (China): T1 +1.3%, T3 -7.3%, T6 -12.5%, T9 -13.8%, T12 -5.6%
FXI (China Large Cap): T1 +3.0%, T3 -6.5%, T6 -10.8%, T9 -12.3%, T12 -8.2%
INDA (India): T1 -3.4%, T3 -3.2%, T6 -6.8%, T9 -11.4%, T12 -11.9%
EWC (Canada): T1 +2.4%, T3 +3.0%, T6 +8.8%, T9 +19.5%, T12 +28.6%
EWA (Australia): T1 +1.4%, T3 -0.7%, T6 +10.6%, T9 +10.6%, T12 +12.9%

Macro assets
GLD (Gold): T1 -1.4%, T3 -11.7%, T6 -13.3%, T9 -2.5%, T12 +21.1%
DBC (Commodities): T1 +8.9%, T3 +2.2%, T6 +27.2%, T9 +39.5%, T12 +37.3%
TLT (Long Treasuries): T1 -2.7%, T3 -2.5%, T6 -1.5%, T9 -5.4%, T12 +1.4%
IEF (Intermediate Treasuries): T1 -0.6%, T3 -1.5%, T6 -0.7%, T9 -1.6%, T12 +2.1%
HYG (High Yield Credit): T1 -0.1%, T3 +0.4%, T6 +1.3%, T9 +3.0%, T12 +4.9%
LQD (Investment Grade Credit): T1 -1.6%, T3 -1.6%, T6 -0.7%, T9 -1.7%, T12 +2.6%
UUP (US Dollar): T1 +0.3%, T3 +3.6%, T6 +4.6%, T9 +6.0%, T12 +8.0%

6/9 Relative Leadership
Growth/mega-cap vs broad market: QQQ-SPY | T1 -4.8%, T3 +3.2%, T6 +5.4%, T9 +3.8%, T12 +5.4%
Equal-weight vs cap-weight: RSP-SPY | T1 +1.1%, T3 -1.0%, T6 -1.5%, T9 +1.1%, T12 -2.4%
Small caps vs large caps: IWM-SPY | T1 -1.9%, T3 +0.9%, T6 +1.5%, T9 +8.2%, T12 +13.9%
Momentum vs broad market: MTUM-SPY | T1 -9.4%, T3 +9.4%, T6 +13.6%, T9 +11.5%, T12 +11.9%
S&P 500 momentum vs broad market: SPMO-SPY | T1 -7.6%, T3 +12.2%, T6 +18.0%, T9 +12.0%, T12 +12.5%
Quality vs broad market: QUAL-SPY | T1 +0.3%, T3 -0.5%, T6 -1.5%, T9 -0.3%, T12 -1.2%
S&P 500 quality vs broad market: SPHQ-SPY | T1 -5.4%, T3 +0.7%, T6 +1.2%, T9 +3.4%, T12 +0.4%
Free-cash-flow yield vs broad market: COWZ-SPY | T1 +4.3%, T3 -4.4%, T6 -4.9%, T9 +1.9%, T12 -2.5%
Minimum volatility vs broad market: USMV-SPY | T1 +1.7%, T3 -3.8%, T6 -7.3%, T9 -9.9%, T12 -15.1%
Enhanced value vs momentum: VLUE-MTUM | T1 +4.7%, T3 +8.2%, T6 +13.4%, T9 +32.6%, T12 +42.7%
Value vs growth: VTV-VUG | T1 +1.0%, T3 +3.4%, T6 +4.2%, T9 +12.2%, T12 +11.5%
Consumer discretionary vs staples: XLY-XLP | T1 -3.5%, T3 -7.8%, T6 -7.6%, T9 -10.2%, T12 -4.3%
Industrials vs utilities: XLI-XLU | T1 -4.3%, T3 +1.7%, T6 +1.6%, T9 +16.5%, T12 +7.9%
Energy vs technology: XLE-XLK | T1 +15.7%, T3 -10.0%, T6 -1.3%, T9 +13.8%, T12 +4.8%
Gold vs equities: GLD-SPY | T1 -1.8%, T3 -18.2%, T6 -24.2%, T9 -16.0%, T12 +0.9%
Credit beta vs duration: HYG-TLT | T1 +2.7%, T3 +3.0%, T6 +2.8%, T9 +8.3%, T12 +3.5%
Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY | T1 -1.3%, T3 -0.7%, T6 -0.5%, T9 +1.0%, T12 +1.7%
Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY | T1 -3.4%, T3 -2.8%, T6 -1.6%, T9 +3.1%, T12 +4.8%
Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY | T1 -3.0%, T3 -1.9%, T6 -0.4%, T9 +5.5%, T12 +7.0%
EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY | T1 -0.7%, T3 -2.5%, T6 -3.0%, T9 +0.7%, T12 +0.9%
Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY | T1 -4.4%, T3 -5.3%, T6 -4.9%, T9 -3.0%, T12 -1.3%
Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA | T1 -1.3%, T3 -3.3%, T6 -4.4%, T9 -8.5%, T12 -8.3%
Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA | T1 -4.6%, T3 +2.4%, T6 +2.8%, T9 +3.1%, T12 +11.3%
China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO | T1 +5.3%, T3 -8.4%, T6 -18.5%, T9 -24.2%, T12 -24.5%
India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO | T1 +0.6%, T3 -4.3%, T6 -12.8%, T9 -21.8%, T12 -30.8%

6B/9 Global / International Confirmation
Global risk appetite score: 38/100 (Mixed global confirmation)

Global relative leadership:
- Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY -1.3% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY -3.4% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY -3.0% over T1
- EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY -0.7% over T1
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -4.4% over T1
- Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA -1.3% over T1
- Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA -4.6% over T1
- China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO +5.3% over T1
- India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO +0.6% over T1
- Dollar backdrop: UUP T1 +0.3%

Global read-through: global equities are lagging U.S. equities; ex-U.S. equities are not confirming U.S. leadership; emerging markets are lagging; developed ex-U.S. is leading EM.

7/9 U.S. Leaders and Laggards
Strongest U.S. trend scores:
+ VLUE (Enhanced Value): T1 -4.3%, T6 +37.9%, T12 +74.8%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -10.6%, Decelerating leadership
+ XLE (Energy): T1 +9.5%, T6 +26.1%, T12 +43.5%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +5.2%, Persistent / accelerating
+ DBC (Commodities): T1 +8.9%, T6 +27.2%, T12 +37.3%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +4.4%, Persistent / accelerating
+ XLK (Technology): T1 -6.2%, T6 +27.4%, T12 +38.7%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -10.7%, Decelerating leadership
+ SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum): T1 -7.2%, T6 +28.8%, T12 +32.7%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -12.0%, Decelerating leadership
+ AVUV (Small Value): T1 +2.9%, T6 +18.6%, T12 +36.4%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -0.2%, Decelerating leadership
+ DFSV (Small Value Profitability): T1 +4.0%, T6 +15.8%, T12 +33.0%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +1.3%, Decelerating leadership
+ MTUM (Momentum): T1 -9.0%, T6 +24.5%, T12 +32.1%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -13.1%, Decelerating leadership

Weakest U.S. trend scores:
- GLD (Gold): T1 -1.4%, T6 -13.3%, T12 +21.1%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration +0.8%, Accelerating leadership
- TLT (Long Treasuries): T1 -2.7%, T6 -1.5%, T12 +1.4%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -2.5%, Decelerating leadership
- XLY (Consumer Discretionary): T1 -0.8%, T6 -3.9%, T12 +3.0%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -0.2%, Long-term leader, short-term fading
- XLC (Communication Services): T1 +2.2%, T6 -3.2%, T12 +2.8%, Persistence 2/5, Acceleration +2.7%, Emerging tactical leadership
- LQD (Investment Grade Credit): T1 -1.6%, T6 -0.7%, T12 +2.6%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -1.5%, Decelerating leadership
- IEF (Intermediate Treasuries): T1 -0.6%, T6 -0.7%, T12 +2.1%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -0.5%, Long-term leader, short-term fading
- HYG (High Yield Credit): T1 -0.1%, T6 +1.3%, T12 +4.9%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -0.3%, Decelerating leadership
- USMV (Min Vol): T1 +2.1%, T6 +3.6%, T12 +5.1%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +1.5%, Decelerating leadership

7B/9 Global Leaders and Laggards
Strongest global trend scores:
+ EWC (Canada): T1 +2.4%, T6 +8.8%, T12 +28.6%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +0.9%, Decelerating leadership
+ EWJ (Japan): T1 -4.9%, T6 +10.7%, T12 +32.4%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -6.7%, Decelerating leadership
+ EEM (Emerging Markets): T1 -8.7%, T6 +14.0%, T12 +34.1%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -11.1%, Decelerating leadership
+ VEA (Developed Markets ex-US): T1 -2.6%, T6 +10.4%, T12 +27.2%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -4.4%, Decelerating leadership
+ ACWI (Global Equities): T1 -0.9%, T6 +10.4%, T12 +21.9%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -2.6%, Decelerating leadership

Weakest global trend scores:
- MCHI (China): T1 +1.3%, T6 -12.5%, T12 -5.6%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration +3.4%, Accelerating leadership
- INDA (India): T1 -3.4%, T6 -6.8%, T12 -11.9%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -2.3%, Weak / failed leadership
- FXI (China Large Cap): T1 +3.0%, T6 -10.8%, T12 -8.2%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration +4.8%, Accelerating leadership
- EWG (Germany): T1 -0.6%, T6 -0.9%, T12 -0.7%, Persistence 2/5, Acceleration -0.4%, Mixed / transitional
- EWQ (France): T1 +0.7%, T6 +4.6%, T12 +8.9%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -0.1%, Decelerating leadership

8/9 Macro Snapshot
VIX: 16.64 (-0.41 d/d) as of 2026-07-22
3M Treasury: 3.89 (+0.02 d/d) as of 2026-07-22
2Y Treasury: 4.31 (+0.05 d/d) as of 2026-07-22
10Y Treasury: 4.67 (+0.04 d/d) as of 2026-07-22
10Y-2Y Curve: 0.36 (-0.01 d/d) as of 2026-07-22
HY Spread: 2.69 (+0.00 d/d) as of 2026-07-21
IG Spread: 0.78 (+0.00 d/d) as of 2026-07-21