# The Market Fieldbook — Weekly Economic Snapshot **As of:** 2026-10-12 **Current Economic Regime:** Goldilocks **Confidence:** High **Input Availability:** 100% **Overall Freshness:** Moderate lag (61/100) > How to read this report ## The economy in one minute Economic activity remains in an expansionary phase, supported by strong growth and stable credit conditions. Labor conditions are tight, which may pose challenges for policy easing. The main concern is the cooling momentum in labor and credit, which, while still supportive, shows signs of slight weakening. Faster confirmation data aligns with slower official metrics, reinforcing the current classification of Goldilocks, characterized by a balanced and favorable economic environment. ## Current economic field read | Pillar | Score | Current interpretation | |---|---:|---| | Growth | 77 | Expanding | | Labor | 72 | Tight | | Inflation Pressure | 39 | Disinflationary | | Credit | 73 | Stable | | Liquidity | 60 | Neutral | ## What changed in the latest snapshot Growth and inflation pressure were broadly stable. Labor and credit remain supportive at current levels, while recent momentum shows cooling in labor and credit. Liquidity weakened modestly and is the main new deterioration signal. ## What the pattern is saying ### Growth Growth remains expansionary at 77, but momentum is stable rather than accelerating. ### Labor Labor remains tight at 72 and supportive, while labor momentum is cooling. ### Inflation pressure Inflation pressure is disinflationary at 39 and remains contained in the current regime. ### Credit Credit is stable at 73 and currently functional, although credit momentum is deteriorating. ### Liquidity Liquidity is neutral at 60. The latest report flags three consecutive deteriorating weekly moves, so this is the primary item to monitor. ## Market and economy together The market regime is Mixed / Transitional, while the economic regime is Goldilocks. This alignment is mixed and should be monitored. ## Why this matters for investors The current Goldilocks classification remains supportive, but cooling labor and credit momentum plus weakening liquidity warrant caution when assessing cyclicality, earnings durability, and financing conditions. ## What would change the conclusion A change would require confirmation across multiple pillars and snapshots, particularly continued labor or credit deterioration, broader liquidity weakness, or a change in current-state pillar classifications. ## What to watch next 1. Monitor labor momentum for further cooling. 2. Watch credit momentum and spreads for stress. 3. Track liquidity after the three consecutive deteriorating moves. 4. Reassess freshness as lagged official data updates. ## Data freshness: what is current and what is lagged Overall freshness is Moderate lag (61/100). Credit is current, labor and liquidity are recent, while growth and inflation pressure are stale/caution. This is the latest official macro-regime read, not a real-time nowcast. ## Important limitations This report is a structured macro-regime read, not investment advice. Slow official data should be read alongside faster confirmation from claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data. --- # Detailed Data Appendix Weekly Economic Regime Report As of: 2026-10-12 Economic Regime Methodology: v2.0 Methodology effective date: 2026-07-14 1/11 Economic Strategist Summary Economic Regime: Goldilocks Confidence: High (100% input availability) Growth, labor, inflation, and credit are broadly aligned in a market-friendly configuration. 2/11 What Changed Since Prior Economic Run - Growth score was broadly stable versus the prior run. - Labor score was broadly stable versus the prior run. - Inflation Pressure score was broadly stable versus the prior run. - Credit score was broadly stable versus the prior run. - Liquidity score deteriorated by 1.5 pts versus the prior run. Historical context: Growth was little changed (+0.0 pts). Labor was little changed (+0.4 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit was little changed (+0.3 pts). Liquidity weakened (-1.5 pts). 3/11 Economic Regime Dashboard Growth: 77/100 - Expanding Labor: 72/100 - Tight Inflation Pressure: 39/100 - Disinflationary Credit: 73/100 - Stable Liquidity: 60/100 - Neutral 3A/11 Economic Classification Rationale - Current-state classification: Goldilocks. - The regime label is based primarily on current pillar levels. Momentum, persistence, transition pressure, and data freshness are evaluated separately. - Growth: 77/100 (Expanding); classification assessment: supportive. - Labor: 72/100 (Tight); classification assessment: supportive. - Inflation Pressure: 39/100 (Disinflationary); classification assessment: moderate or contained. - Credit: 73/100 (Stable); classification assessment: supportive. - Liquidity: 60/100 (Neutral); classification assessment: not materially restrictive. 3B/11 Economic Transition Monitor - Current economic regime: Goldilocks. - Prior economic regime: Goldilocks. - Regime duration: 10 weekly observation(s). - Regime changed this run: No. - Transition pressure: Moderate. - Main transition pressure: labor momentum is cooling; credit conditions are deteriorating. - Potential transition risk: no single transition path is dominant yet. 3C/11 Economic Momentum + Deterioration Monitor Economic momentum: - Growth momentum: stable (-1.0 pts over trailing observations). - Labor momentum: deteriorating (-8.4 pts over trailing observations). - Inflation Pressure momentum: stable (-0.5 pts over trailing observations). - Credit momentum: deteriorating (-9.4 pts over trailing observations). - Liquidity momentum: stable (-3.6 pts over trailing observations). Deterioration monitor: - Liquidity: deteriorating for 3 consecutive weekly moves. 3D/11 Market / Economy Divergence Monitor - Market regime: Mixed / Transitional. - Economic regime: Goldilocks. - Current alignment read: Market Regime: Mixed / Transitional. Economic Regime: Goldilocks. Alignment is mixed and should be monitored. - Market / economy divergence risk: Low. - Reason: market and economic regimes are not showing a major contradiction based on current pillar scores. 3E/11 Economic Data Freshness Monitor - Overall data freshness: Moderate lag (61/100). - Monthly official macro data often lag by one to two months; weekly claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data provide the faster confirmation layer. - Lagged official-data inputs: Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY, Manufacturers New Orders YoY, Retail Sales YoY, Retail Sales 3M Annualized, Industrial Production YoY, Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate 3M Change, ... - Current/faster confirmation inputs: Initial Claims 4W Avg, Initial Claims 13W Change, High Yield OAS, High Yield OAS 13W Change, Investment Grade OAS, Investment Grade OAS 13W Change, Chicago Fed NFCI, NFCI 13W Change, ... - Interpretation note: emphasize this as the latest official macro regime read, not a real-time nowcast. Pillar freshness: - Growth: Stale / caution (avg age 72d; freshest Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY as of 2026-08-01; oldest Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY as of 2026-08-01). - Labor: Recent (avg age 30d; freshest Initial Claims 4W Avg as of 2026-10-03; oldest Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change as of 2026-09-01). - Inflation Pressure: Stale / caution (avg age 72d; freshest CPI YoY as of 2026-08-01; oldest CPI YoY as of 2026-08-01). - Credit: Current (avg age 6d; freshest High Yield OAS as of 2026-10-08; oldest Chicago Fed NFCI as of 2026-10-02). - Liquidity: Recent (avg age 25d; freshest Reverse Repo 13W Change as of 2026-10-09; oldest M2 Money Supply YoY as of 2026-08-01). 3F/11 Economic Signal Defensibility - This is the latest official macro-regime read, not a real-time nowcast. - Slow official data should be read alongside faster confirmation from claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data. - Raw vs freshness-adjusted pillar scores: - Growth: raw 77/100 | freshness-adjusted 70/100 | freshness: Stale / caution - Labor: raw 72/100 | freshness-adjusted 71/100 | freshness: Recent - Inflation Pressure: raw 39/100 | freshness-adjusted 42/100 | freshness: Stale / caution - Credit: raw 73/100 | freshness-adjusted 73/100 | freshness: Current - Liquidity: raw 60/100 | freshness-adjusted 59/100 | freshness: Recent - Interpretation caveats: - Growth and labor are economically important but can lag turning points. - Credit is the faster financial-conditions confirmation layer, not a direct measure of real economic output. - Inflation Pressure is directional: higher means more inflation pressure, not a better inflation backdrop. - Liquidity is a plumbing/policy mix and should be interpreted with sign logic, not as a simple risk-on/risk-off score. 3G/11 Official Macro vs Faster Confirmation - Slow official macro: Growth 77/100, Labor 72/100, Inflation Pressure 39/100. - Faster financial confirmation: Credit 73/100, Liquidity 60/100. - Credit conditions are currently supportive and not signaling broad stress. 3H/11 Liquidity Interpretation Notes - Fed balance sheet growth is generally liquidity-supportive; contraction is generally less supportive. - M2 growth is a broad money/liquidity proxy, but it is lagged and regime-dependent. - Reverse Repo changes are money-market plumbing; falling RRP can release liquidity, while rising RRP can absorb cash. - Treasury General Account changes affect reserve liquidity; falling TGA can add liquidity, while rising TGA can drain it. - Fed funds is better read as policy restrictiveness than pure liquidity. 4/11 Growth / Labor / Inflation / Credit / Liquidity Pillars Growth: 77/100 - Expanding Growth is broadly supportive of risk assets. - Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.03% | component score 58 - Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 8.51% | component score 100 - Retail Sales YoY: 5.36% | component score 100 - Retail Sales 3M Annualized: 3.52% | component score 66 - Industrial Production YoY: 1.42% | component score 63 Labor: 72/100 - Tight Labor remains supportive, though it may also limit policy easing. - Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 51k | component score 34 - Unemployment Rate: 4.20% | component score 77 - Unemployment Rate 3M Change: 0.00 ppt | component score 67 - Initial Claims 4W Avg: 198,000 | component score 85 - Initial Claims 13W Change: -9.22% | component score 97 Inflation Pressure: 39/100 - Disinflationary Inflation pressure is easing and is less likely to challenge the market backdrop. - CPI YoY: 3.71% | component score 43 - Core CPI YoY: 2.76% | component score 22 - PPI YoY: 5.41% | component score 90 - Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 3.02% | component score 1 Credit: 73/100 - Stable Credit is broadly functional, with no major stress signal. - High Yield OAS: 3.15% | component score 95 - High Yield OAS 13W Change: 0.46 ppt | component score 36 - Investment Grade OAS: 0.82% | component score 98 - Investment Grade OAS 13W Change: 0.05 ppt | component score 60 - Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.49 | component score 92 - NFCI 13W Change: 0.02 | component score 56 Liquidity: 60/100 - Neutral Liquidity is not clearly supportive or restrictive. - Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.18% | component score 65 - M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.66% | component score 96 - Reverse Repo 13W Change: -0.2 | component score 50 - Treasury General Account 13W Change: 106,191.0 | component score 32 - Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.75% | component score 56 5/11 Market Regime vs Economic Regime Alignment Market Regime: Mixed / Transitional. Economic Regime: Goldilocks. Alignment is mixed and should be monitored. 6/11 Historical Economic Context History file: /app/data/history/economic_regime_history.csv Current history observations: 23 Growth was little changed (+0.0 pts). Labor was little changed (+0.4 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit was little changed (+0.3 pts). Liquidity weakened (-1.5 pts). 7/11 Key Economic Inputs - Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.03% as of 2026-08-01 - Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 8.51% as of 2026-08-01 - Retail Sales YoY: 5.36% as of 2026-08-01 - Industrial Production YoY: 1.42% as of 2026-08-01 - Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 51k as of 2026-09-01 - Unemployment Rate: 4.20% as of 2026-09-01 - Initial Claims 4W Avg: 198,000 as of 2026-10-03 - CPI YoY: 3.71% as of 2026-08-01 - Core CPI YoY: 2.76% as of 2026-08-01 - High Yield OAS: 3.15% as of 2026-10-08 - Investment Grade OAS: 0.82% as of 2026-10-08 - Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.49 as of 2026-10-02 - Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.18% as of 2026-10-07 - M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.66% as of 2026-08-01 - Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.75% as of 2026-09-01 Charts - /app/data/charts/economic_regime_pillars.png - /app/data/charts/economic_regime_history.png