# The Market Fieldbook — Weekly Economic Snapshot

**As of:** 2026-08-31  
**Current Economic Regime:** Goldilocks  
**Confidence:** High  
**Input Availability:** 100%  
**Overall Freshness:** Recent (71/100)  

> How to read this report

## The economy in one minute

Economic activity is currently expanding, supported by robust growth and favorable credit conditions. Labor conditions remain tight, which is a supportive factor, while inflation pressure is moderate and disinflationary. The main concern is the recent deterioration in growth momentum, which is weakening across recent snapshots despite still being in an expansionary level. Faster confirmation from recent data aligns with the slower official data, reinforcing the current classification of the Goldilocks regime, characterized by a balanced economic environment.

## Current economic field read

| Pillar              | Score | Current interpretation               |
|---------------------|-------|-------------------------------------|
| Growth              | 74.3  | Expanding                           |
| Labor               | 71.8  | Tight                               |
| Inflation Pressure   | 35.9  | Disinflationary                     |
| Credit              | 83.4  | Loose                               |
| Liquidity           | 60.4  | Neutral                             |

## What changed in the latest snapshot

In the latest week, the growth score remained broadly stable, while the labor score improved by 1.6 points. The inflation pressure score was stable, and credit conditions improved by 2.3 points. Liquidity conditions also saw a 1.6-point improvement, indicating a supportive environment overall.

## What the pattern is saying

### Growth
The growth score is currently at 74.3, indicating expansion. However, growth momentum has deteriorated by 8.3 points over the trailing observations.

### Labor
The labor score is at 71.8, reflecting tight conditions. Labor momentum is stable, having improved by 2.3 points over the trailing observations.

### Inflation Pressure
The inflation pressure score is at 35.9, indicating a disinflationary environment. This score has remained stable, with a slight decrease of 4.9 points over the trailing observations.

### Credit
Credit conditions are highly supportive, with a score of 83.4. The credit momentum remains stable, showing a minor decline of 0.2 points over the trailing observations.

### Liquidity
Liquidity is neutral with a score of 60.4. The liquidity momentum is stable, having decreased by 3.3 points over the trailing observations.

## Market and economy together

The current market regime is classified as Mixed / Transitional, while the economic regime is Goldilocks. The alignment between the market and economic regimes is mixed and should be monitored closely.

## Why this matters for investors

The economic backdrop provides essential context for company research, earnings durability, and financing conditions. Understanding the current economic regime can help in assessing the cyclicality of sectors and the overall health of the market environment.

## What would change the conclusion

Confirmation across multiple pillars and snapshots would be required to alter the current conclusion. A significant shift in growth momentum or a change in labor conditions could prompt a reevaluation.

## What to watch next

1. Monitor growth momentum for further signs of deterioration.
2. Watch labor conditions for any shifts that may impact policy decisions.
3. Keep an eye on inflation pressure metrics for potential changes.
4. Observe credit conditions for any signs of tightening.
5. Track liquidity indicators for shifts that may affect market dynamics.

## Data freshness: what is current and what is lagged

The data freshness is adequate, with faster indicators helping confirm or challenge the slower official macro data. Key inputs such as initial claims and credit spreads are current, while other metrics may lag by one to two months.

## Important limitations

This report reflects the latest official macro-regime read and should be interpreted alongside faster confirmation data. The economic signals are subject to change based on evolving conditions and should be monitored for updates.

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# Detailed Data Appendix

Weekly Economic Regime Report
As of: 2026-08-31
Economic Regime Methodology: v2.0
Methodology effective date: 2026-07-14

1/11 Economic Strategist Summary
Economic Regime: Goldilocks
Confidence: High (100% input availability)
Growth, labor, inflation, and credit are broadly aligned in a market-friendly configuration.

2/11 What Changed Since Prior Economic Run
- Growth score was broadly stable versus the prior run.
- Labor score improved by 1.6 pts versus the prior run.
- Inflation Pressure score was broadly stable versus the prior run.
- Credit score improved by 2.3 pts versus the prior run.
- Liquidity score improved by 1.6 pts versus the prior run.

Historical context:
Growth was little changed (+0.0 pts). Labor improved (+1.6 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit improved (+2.3 pts). Liquidity improved (+1.6 pts).

3/11 Economic Regime Dashboard
Growth: 74/100 - Expanding
Labor: 72/100 - Tight
Inflation Pressure: 36/100 - Disinflationary
Credit: 83/100 - Loose
Liquidity: 60/100 - Neutral

3A/11 Economic Classification Rationale
- Current-state classification: Goldilocks.
- The regime label is based primarily on current pillar levels. Momentum, persistence, transition pressure, and data freshness are evaluated separately.
- Growth: 74/100 (Expanding); classification assessment: supportive.
- Labor: 72/100 (Tight); classification assessment: supportive.
- Inflation Pressure: 36/100 (Disinflationary); classification assessment: moderate or contained.
- Credit: 83/100 (Loose); classification assessment: supportive.
- Liquidity: 60/100 (Neutral); classification assessment: not materially restrictive.

3B/11 Economic Transition Monitor
- Current economic regime: Goldilocks.
- Prior economic regime: Goldilocks.
- Regime duration: 3 weekly observation(s).
- Regime changed this run: No.
- Transition pressure: Low / watch.
- Main transition pressure: growth is weakening over the trailing observations.
- Potential transition risk: no single transition path is dominant yet.

3C/11 Economic Momentum + Deterioration Monitor
Economic momentum:
- Growth momentum: deteriorating (-8.3 pts over trailing observations).
- Labor momentum: stable (+2.3 pts over trailing observations).
- Inflation Pressure momentum: stable (-4.9 pts over trailing observations).
- Credit momentum: stable (-0.2 pts over trailing observations).
- Liquidity momentum: stable (-3.3 pts over trailing observations).

Deterioration monitor:
- No persistent 3-run deterioration or improvement signals detected.

3D/11 Market / Economy Divergence Monitor
- Market regime: Mixed / Transitional.
- Economic regime: Goldilocks.
- Current alignment read: Market Regime: Mixed / Transitional. Economic Regime: Goldilocks. Alignment is mixed and should be monitored.
- Market / economy divergence risk: Low.
- Reason: market and economic regimes are not showing a major contradiction based on current pillar scores.

3E/11 Economic Data Freshness Monitor
- Overall data freshness: Recent (71/100).
- Monthly official macro data often lag by one to two months; weekly claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data provide the faster confirmation layer.
- Lagged official-data inputs: Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY, Manufacturers New Orders YoY, Retail Sales YoY, Retail Sales 3M Annualized, Industrial Production YoY, Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate 3M Change, ...
- Current/faster confirmation inputs: Initial Claims 4W Avg, Initial Claims 13W Change, High Yield OAS, High Yield OAS 13W Change, Investment Grade OAS, Investment Grade OAS 13W Change, Chicago Fed NFCI, NFCI 13W Change, ...
- Interpretation note: data freshness is adequate, with faster indicators helping confirm or challenge the slower official macro data.

Pillar freshness:
- Growth: Lagged (avg age 67d; freshest Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY as of 2026-07-01; oldest Manufacturers New Orders YoY as of 2026-06-01).
- Labor: Recent (avg age 44d; freshest Initial Claims 4W Avg as of 2026-08-22; oldest Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change as of 2026-07-01).
- Inflation Pressure: Lagged (avg age 61d; freshest CPI YoY as of 2026-07-01; oldest CPI YoY as of 2026-07-01).
- Credit: Current (avg age 6d; freshest High Yield OAS as of 2026-08-27; oldest Chicago Fed NFCI as of 2026-08-21).
- Liquidity: Recent (avg age 27d; freshest Reverse Repo 13W Change as of 2026-08-28; oldest M2 Money Supply YoY as of 2026-07-01).

3F/11 Economic Signal Defensibility
- This is the latest official macro-regime read, not a real-time nowcast.
- Slow official data should be read alongside faster confirmation from claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data.

- Raw vs freshness-adjusted pillar scores:
- Growth: raw 74/100 | freshness-adjusted 71/100 | freshness: Lagged
- Labor: raw 72/100 | freshness-adjusted 71/100 | freshness: Recent
- Inflation Pressure: raw 36/100 | freshness-adjusted 38/100 | freshness: Lagged
- Credit: raw 83/100 | freshness-adjusted 83/100 | freshness: Current
- Liquidity: raw 60/100 | freshness-adjusted 60/100 | freshness: Recent

- Interpretation caveats:
- Growth and labor are economically important but can lag turning points.
- Credit is the faster financial-conditions confirmation layer, not a direct measure of real economic output.
- Inflation Pressure is directional: higher means more inflation pressure, not a better inflation backdrop.
- Liquidity is a plumbing/policy mix and should be interpreted with sign logic, not as a simple risk-on/risk-off score.

3G/11 Official Macro vs Faster Confirmation
- Slow official macro: Growth 74/100, Labor 72/100, Inflation Pressure 36/100.
- Faster financial confirmation: Credit 83/100, Liquidity 60/100.
- Credit conditions are currently supportive and not signaling broad stress.

3H/11 Liquidity Interpretation Notes
- Fed balance sheet growth is generally liquidity-supportive; contraction is generally less supportive.
- M2 growth is a broad money/liquidity proxy, but it is lagged and regime-dependent.
- Reverse Repo changes are money-market plumbing; falling RRP can release liquidity, while rising RRP can absorb cash.
- Treasury General Account changes affect reserve liquidity; falling TGA can add liquidity, while rising TGA can drain it.
- Fed funds is better read as policy restrictiveness than pure liquidity.

4/11 Growth / Labor / Inflation / Credit / Liquidity Pillars
Growth: 74/100 - Expanding
  Growth is broadly supportive of risk assets.
  - Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.27% | component score 61
  - Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 7.37% | component score 95
  - Retail Sales YoY: 5.01% | component score 100
  - Retail Sales 3M Annualized: 2.40% | component score 57
  - Industrial Production YoY: 1.08% | component score 58

Labor: 72/100 - Tight
  Labor remains supportive, though it may also limit policy easing.
  - Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 20k | component score 23
  - Unemployment Rate: 4.10% | component score 80
  - Unemployment Rate 3M Change: -0.20 ppt | component score 100
  - Initial Claims 4W Avg: 205,500 | component score 79
  - Initial Claims 13W Change: -4.25% | component score 77

Inflation Pressure: 36/100 - Disinflationary
  Inflation pressure is easing and is less likely to challenge the market backdrop.
  - CPI YoY: 3.54% | component score 38
  - Core CPI YoY: 2.79% | component score 22
  - PPI YoY: 4.66% | component score 78
  - Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 3.15% | component score 5

Credit: 83/100 - Loose
  Credit conditions are supportive and not signaling broad stress.
  - High Yield OAS: 2.63% | component score 100
  - High Yield OAS 13W Change: -0.09 ppt | component score 73
  - Investment Grade OAS: 0.79% | component score 100
  - Investment Grade OAS 13W Change: 0.06 ppt | component score 59
  - Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.57 | component score 97
  - NFCI 13W Change: -0.06 | component score 72

Liquidity: 60/100 - Neutral
  Liquidity is not clearly supportive or restrictive.
  - Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.40% | component score 67
  - M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.41% | component score 94
  - Reverse Repo 13W Change: -11.5 | component score 52
  - Treasury General Account 13W Change: 120,440.0 | component score 30
  - Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% | component score 59

5/11 Market Regime vs Economic Regime Alignment
Market Regime: Mixed / Transitional. Economic Regime: Goldilocks. Alignment is mixed and should be monitored.

6/11 Historical Economic Context
History file: /app/data/history/economic_regime_history.csv
Current history observations: 16
Growth was little changed (+0.0 pts). Labor improved (+1.6 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit improved (+2.3 pts). Liquidity improved (+1.6 pts).

7/11 Key Economic Inputs
- Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.27% as of 2026-07-01
- Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 7.37% as of 2026-06-01
- Retail Sales YoY: 5.01% as of 2026-07-01
- Industrial Production YoY: 1.08% as of 2026-07-01
- Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 20k as of 2026-07-01
- Unemployment Rate: 4.10% as of 2026-07-01
- Initial Claims 4W Avg: 205,500 as of 2026-08-22
- CPI YoY: 3.54% as of 2026-07-01
- Core CPI YoY: 2.79% as of 2026-07-01
- High Yield OAS: 2.63% as of 2026-08-27
- Investment Grade OAS: 0.79% as of 2026-08-27
- Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.57 as of 2026-08-21
- Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.40% as of 2026-08-26
- M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.41% as of 2026-07-01
- Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% as of 2026-07-01

Charts
- /app/data/charts/economic_regime_pillars.png
- /app/data/charts/economic_regime_history.png