# The Market Fieldbook — Weekly Economic Snapshot **As of:** 2026-08-24 **Current Economic Regime:** Goldilocks **Confidence:** High **Input Availability:** 100% **Overall Freshness:** Recent (70/100) > How to read this report ## The economy in one minute Economic activity is currently expanding, supported by strong growth and labor conditions. The main concern lies with liquidity, which has shown signs of deterioration. While growth momentum is stable, the recent snapshots indicate a slight weakening. This is consistent with the slower official data, which remains supportive. The economic regime classification as Goldilocks is maintained due to the alignment of growth, labor, inflation, and credit conditions in a market-friendly configuration. ## Current economic field read | Pillar | Score | Current interpretation | |---------------------|-------|--------------------------------| | Growth | 74.3 | Expanding | | Labor | 70.2 | Tight | | Inflation Pressure | 35.9 | Disinflationary | | Credit | 81.1 | Loose | | Liquidity | 58.8 | Neutral | ## What changed in the latest snapshot Over the past week, the growth, labor, and inflation pressure scores remained broadly stable. However, the credit score deteriorated by 1.9 points, and liquidity weakened by 1.5 points. The higher labor score indicates firmer labor conditions, but does not imply a tightening labor market. ## What the pattern is saying ### Growth The growth score remains at 74, indicating expansion. Key components such as retail sales and new orders are performing well. ### Labor The labor score is at 70, reflecting tight conditions that support economic activity, though it may limit policy easing. ### Inflation Pressure The inflation pressure score is at 36, indicating disinflationary conditions that are less likely to challenge the current market backdrop. ### Credit Credit conditions are strong, with a score of 81, suggesting a loose environment that does not signal broad stress. ### Liquidity Liquidity is neutral at 59, but has shown signs of deterioration over recent weeks, which could impact future conditions. ## Market and economy together The market regime is currently classified as Inflation-Sensitive Defensive Tape, indicating a cautious market stance despite the supportive economic backdrop. ## Why this matters for investors Understanding the economic backdrop is crucial for assessing company research, earnings durability, and financing conditions. This context aids in evaluating cyclicality and portfolio observation. ## What would change the conclusion A shift in the economic regime would require confirmation across multiple pillars and snapshots, particularly regarding liquidity and credit conditions. ## What to watch next 1. Monitor liquidity trends for further deterioration. 2. Assess credit conditions for signs of stress. 3. Keep an eye on inflation pressure developments. 4. Watch for updates in labor market indicators. 5. Review growth metrics for any shifts in momentum. ## Data freshness: what is current and what is lagged Current data includes credit and liquidity metrics, while growth and inflation indicators are lagged, often by one to two months. ## Important limitations This report reflects the latest official macro-regime read and should be interpreted alongside faster confirmation data for a comprehensive view. --- # Detailed Data Appendix Weekly Economic Regime Report As of: 2026-08-24 Economic Regime Methodology: v2.0 Methodology effective date: 2026-07-14 1/11 Economic Strategist Summary Economic Regime: Goldilocks Confidence: High (100% input availability) Growth, labor, inflation, and credit are broadly aligned in a market-friendly configuration. 2/11 What Changed Since Prior Economic Run - Growth score was broadly stable versus the prior run. - Labor score was broadly stable versus the prior run. - Inflation Pressure score was broadly stable versus the prior run. - Credit score deteriorated by 1.9 pts versus the prior run. - Liquidity score deteriorated by 1.5 pts versus the prior run. Historical context: Growth was little changed (+0.2 pts). Labor was little changed (-0.4 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit weakened (-1.9 pts). Liquidity weakened (-1.5 pts). 3/11 Economic Regime Dashboard Growth: 74/100 - Expanding Labor: 70/100 - Tight Inflation Pressure: 36/100 - Disinflationary Credit: 81/100 - Loose Liquidity: 59/100 - Neutral 3A/11 Economic Classification Rationale - Current-state classification: Goldilocks. - The regime label is based primarily on current pillar levels. Momentum, persistence, transition pressure, and data freshness are evaluated separately. - Growth: 74/100 (Expanding); classification assessment: supportive. - Labor: 70/100 (Tight); classification assessment: supportive. - Inflation Pressure: 36/100 (Disinflationary); classification assessment: moderate or contained. - Credit: 81/100 (Loose); classification assessment: supportive. - Liquidity: 59/100 (Neutral); classification assessment: not materially restrictive. 3B/11 Economic Transition Monitor - Current economic regime: Goldilocks. - Prior economic regime: Goldilocks. - Regime duration: 2 weekly observation(s). - Regime changed this run: No. - Transition pressure: Low / watch. - Main transition pressure: liquidity is becoming less supportive. - Potential transition risk: no single transition path is dominant yet. 3C/11 Economic Momentum + Deterioration Monitor Economic momentum: - Growth momentum: stable (-0.5 pts over trailing observations). - Labor momentum: stable (+2.2 pts over trailing observations). - Inflation Pressure momentum: easing (-7.9 pts over trailing observations). - Credit momentum: stable (-2.1 pts over trailing observations). - Liquidity momentum: deteriorating (-8.2 pts over trailing observations). Deterioration monitor: - Liquidity: deteriorating for 3 consecutive weekly moves. 3D/11 Market / Economy Divergence Monitor - Market regime: Inflation-Sensitive Defensive Tape. - Economic regime: Goldilocks. - Current alignment read: Market Regime: Inflation-Sensitive Defensive Tape. Economic Regime: Goldilocks. Markets are acting more cautious than the economic backdrop alone would imply. - Market / economy divergence risk: Moderate. - Reason: market defensiveness may be ahead of still-supportive macro conditions. 3E/11 Economic Data Freshness Monitor - Overall data freshness: Recent (70/100). - Monthly official macro data often lag by one to two months; weekly claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data provide the faster confirmation layer. - Lagged official-data inputs: Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY, Manufacturers New Orders YoY, Retail Sales YoY, Retail Sales 3M Annualized, Industrial Production YoY, Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate 3M Change, ... - Current/faster confirmation inputs: Initial Claims 4W Avg, Initial Claims 13W Change, High Yield OAS, High Yield OAS 13W Change, Investment Grade OAS, Investment Grade OAS 13W Change, Chicago Fed NFCI, NFCI 13W Change, ... - Interpretation note: data freshness is adequate, with faster indicators helping confirm or challenge the slower official macro data. Pillar freshness: - Growth: Lagged (avg age 60d; freshest Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY as of 2026-07-01; oldest Manufacturers New Orders YoY as of 2026-06-01). - Labor: Recent (avg age 39d; freshest Initial Claims 4W Avg as of 2026-08-15; oldest Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change as of 2026-07-01). - Inflation Pressure: Lagged (avg age 54d; freshest CPI YoY as of 2026-07-01; oldest CPI YoY as of 2026-07-01). - Credit: Current (avg age 6d; freshest High Yield OAS as of 2026-08-20; oldest Chicago Fed NFCI as of 2026-08-14). - Liquidity: Recent (avg age 30d; freshest Reverse Repo 13W Change as of 2026-08-21; oldest M2 Money Supply YoY as of 2026-06-01). 3F/11 Economic Signal Defensibility - This is the latest official macro-regime read, not a real-time nowcast. - Slow official data should be read alongside faster confirmation from claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data. - Raw vs freshness-adjusted pillar scores: - Growth: raw 74/100 | freshness-adjusted 71/100 | freshness: Lagged - Labor: raw 70/100 | freshness-adjusted 69/100 | freshness: Recent - Inflation Pressure: raw 36/100 | freshness-adjusted 38/100 | freshness: Lagged - Credit: raw 81/100 | freshness-adjusted 81/100 | freshness: Current - Liquidity: raw 59/100 | freshness-adjusted 58/100 | freshness: Recent - Interpretation caveats: - Growth and labor are economically important but can lag turning points. - Credit is the faster financial-conditions confirmation layer, not a direct measure of real economic output. - Inflation Pressure is directional: higher means more inflation pressure, not a better inflation backdrop. - Liquidity is a plumbing/policy mix and should be interpreted with sign logic, not as a simple risk-on/risk-off score. 3G/11 Official Macro vs Faster Confirmation - Slow official macro: Growth 74/100, Labor 70/100, Inflation Pressure 36/100. - Faster financial confirmation: Credit 81/100, Liquidity 59/100. - Credit conditions are currently supportive and not signaling broad stress. 3H/11 Liquidity Interpretation Notes - Fed balance sheet growth is generally liquidity-supportive; contraction is generally less supportive. - M2 growth is a broad money/liquidity proxy, but it is lagged and regime-dependent. - Reverse Repo changes are money-market plumbing; falling RRP can release liquidity, while rising RRP can absorb cash. - Treasury General Account changes affect reserve liquidity; falling TGA can add liquidity, while rising TGA can drain it. - Fed funds is better read as policy restrictiveness than pure liquidity. 4/11 Growth / Labor / Inflation / Credit / Liquidity Pillars Growth: 74/100 - Expanding Growth is broadly supportive of risk assets. - Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.27% | component score 61 - Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 7.37% | component score 95 - Retail Sales YoY: 5.01% | component score 100 - Retail Sales 3M Annualized: 2.40% | component score 57 - Industrial Production YoY: 1.08% | component score 58 Labor: 70/100 - Tight Labor remains supportive, though it may also limit policy easing. - Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 20k | component score 23 - Unemployment Rate: 4.10% | component score 80 - Unemployment Rate 3M Change: -0.20 ppt | component score 100 - Initial Claims 4W Avg: 204,000 | component score 80 - Initial Claims 13W Change: -1.90% | component score 68 Inflation Pressure: 36/100 - Disinflationary Inflation pressure is easing and is less likely to challenge the market backdrop. - CPI YoY: 3.54% | component score 38 - Core CPI YoY: 2.79% | component score 22 - PPI YoY: 4.66% | component score 78 - Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 3.15% | component score 5 Credit: 81/100 - Loose Credit conditions are supportive and not signaling broad stress. - High Yield OAS: 2.75% | component score 100 - High Yield OAS 13W Change: 0.01 ppt | component score 66 - Investment Grade OAS: 0.82% | component score 98 - Investment Grade OAS 13W Change: 0.08 ppt | component score 56 - Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.56 | component score 97 - NFCI 13W Change: -0.05 | component score 70 Liquidity: 59/100 - Neutral Liquidity is not clearly supportive or restrictive. - Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.48% | component score 68 - M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.53% | component score 95 - Reverse Repo 13W Change: -0.8 | component score 50 - Treasury General Account 13W Change: 172,319.0 | component score 21 - Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% | component score 59 5/11 Market Regime vs Economic Regime Alignment Market Regime: Inflation-Sensitive Defensive Tape. Economic Regime: Goldilocks. Markets are acting more cautious than the economic backdrop alone would imply. 6/11 Historical Economic Context History file: /app/data/history/economic_regime_history.csv Current history observations: 15 Growth was little changed (+0.2 pts). Labor was little changed (-0.4 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit weakened (-1.9 pts). Liquidity weakened (-1.5 pts). 7/11 Key Economic Inputs - Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.27% as of 2026-07-01 - Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 7.37% as of 2026-06-01 - Retail Sales YoY: 5.01% as of 2026-07-01 - Industrial Production YoY: 1.08% as of 2026-07-01 - Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 20k as of 2026-07-01 - Unemployment Rate: 4.10% as of 2026-07-01 - Initial Claims 4W Avg: 204,000 as of 2026-08-15 - CPI YoY: 3.54% as of 2026-07-01 - Core CPI YoY: 2.79% as of 2026-07-01 - High Yield OAS: 2.75% as of 2026-08-20 - Investment Grade OAS: 0.82% as of 2026-08-20 - Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.56 as of 2026-08-14 - Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.48% as of 2026-08-19 - M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.53% as of 2026-06-01 - Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% as of 2026-07-01 Charts - /app/data/charts/economic_regime_pillars.png - /app/data/charts/economic_regime_history.png