# The Market Fieldbook — Weekly Economic Snapshot

**As of:** 2026-08-03  
**Current Economic Regime:** Expansionary  
**Confidence:** High  
**Input Availability:** 100%  
**Overall Freshness:** Recent (71/100)  

> How to read this report

## The economy in one minute

Current economic conditions remain broadly expansionary. Growth, labor, and credit are supportive, while inflation pressure is moderate and liquidity is not materially restrictive. Although growth momentum is stable, it has weakened slightly across recent snapshots. The labor pillar remains tight, but it has deteriorated recently, raising some concern. Faster confirmation from recent data aligns with the slower official data, supporting the current classification of expansionary.

## Current economic field read

| Pillar              | Score | Current interpretation                |
|---------------------|-------|---------------------------------------|
| Growth              | 75    | Expanding                             |
| Labor               | 68    | Tight                                 |
| Inflation Pressure   | 44    | Moderate / Watch                      |
| Credit              | 83    | Loose                                 |
| Liquidity           | 67    | Neutral                               |

## What changed in the latest snapshot

Over the past week, the growth score remained stable, while the labor score deteriorated by 10.2 points. Inflation pressure was broadly stable, but credit and liquidity scores both saw slight declines of 2.0 and 3.7 points, respectively. These changes indicate a mixed performance across the economic pillars, with labor conditions becoming less supportive.

## What the pattern is saying

### Growth
The growth score is currently at 75, indicating expansion. Recent data shows stable growth momentum, but the slight deterioration suggests a need for monitoring.

### Labor
The labor score is at 68, reflecting tight conditions. However, the recent decline indicates potential challenges ahead, even as the overall level remains supportive.

### Inflation Pressure
With a score of 44, inflation pressure is moderate. This level suggests that while inflation is not currently a major concern, it should be watched for any directional changes.

### Credit
The credit score stands at 83, indicating loose conditions. Despite a slight recent decline, credit remains highly supportive of economic activity.

### Liquidity
Liquidity is neutral at a score of 67. This indicates that current conditions are neither clearly supportive nor restrictive, providing a stable backdrop for economic activity.

## Market and economy together

The market regime is currently mixed and transitional, while the economic regime remains expansionary. This alignment is not showing major contradictions based on current pillar scores, but it should be monitored for any shifts.

## Why this matters for investors

Understanding the economic backdrop is essential for evaluating company research, assessing earnings durability, and observing financing conditions. The current expansionary regime suggests a supportive environment for corporate performance, but the recent weakening in labor and credit scores warrants careful observation.

## What would change the conclusion

A confirmation of changes across multiple pillars and snapshots would be required to alter the current economic regime classification.

## What to watch next

1. Monitor labor conditions for further signs of deterioration.
2. Watch inflation pressure for any directional changes.
3. Keep an eye on credit conditions for signs of tightening.
4. Observe liquidity trends for potential shifts in market dynamics.
5. Track economic data releases for updates on growth momentum.

## Data freshness: what is current and what is lagged

The overall data freshness is rated as recent, with key indicators providing timely insights into economic conditions. However, some official macro data may lag by one to two months.

## Important limitations

This report reflects the latest official macro-regime read and should be interpreted alongside faster confirmation data.

---

# Detailed Data Appendix

Weekly Economic Regime Report
As of: 2026-08-03
Economic Regime Methodology: v2.0
Methodology effective date: 2026-07-14

1/11 Economic Strategist Summary
Economic Regime: Expansionary
Confidence: High (100% input availability)
Current economic conditions remain broadly expansionary: growth, labor, and credit are supportive, while inflation pressure is moderate and liquidity is not materially restrictive.

2/11 What Changed Since Prior Economic Run
- Growth score was broadly stable versus the prior run.
- Labor score deteriorated by 10.2 pts versus the prior run.
- Inflation Pressure score was broadly stable versus the prior run.
- Credit score deteriorated by 2.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Liquidity score deteriorated by 3.7 pts versus the prior run.

Historical context:
Growth was little changed (+0.0 pts). Labor weakened (-10.2 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit weakened (-2.0 pts). Liquidity weakened (-3.7 pts).

3/11 Economic Regime Dashboard
Growth: 75/100 - Expanding
Labor: 68/100 - Tight
Inflation Pressure: 44/100 - Moderate / Watch
Credit: 83/100 - Loose
Liquidity: 67/100 - Neutral

3A/11 Economic Classification Rationale
- Current-state classification: Expansionary.
- The regime label is based primarily on current pillar levels. Momentum, persistence, transition pressure, and data freshness are evaluated separately.
- Growth: 75/100 (Expanding); classification assessment: supportive.
- Labor: 68/100 (Tight); classification assessment: supportive.
- Inflation Pressure: 44/100 (Moderate / Watch); classification assessment: moderate or contained.
- Credit: 83/100 (Loose); classification assessment: supportive.
- Liquidity: 67/100 (Neutral); classification assessment: not materially restrictive.
- Expansionary was selected because growth, labor, and credit are supportive, inflation pressure is below the elevated threshold, and liquidity is not materially restrictive.

3B/11 Economic Transition Monitor
- Current economic regime: Expansionary.
- Prior economic regime: Expansionary.
- Regime duration: 5 weekly observation(s).
- Regime changed this run: No.
- Transition pressure: Low.
- Main transition pressure: no broad multi-pillar deterioration signal.
- Potential transition risk: no single transition path is dominant yet.

3C/11 Economic Momentum + Deterioration Monitor
Economic momentum:
- Growth momentum: stable (-2.3 pts over trailing observations).
- Labor momentum: stable (-1.1 pts over trailing observations).
- Inflation Pressure momentum: stable (+0.0 pts over trailing observations).
- Credit momentum: stable (-2.1 pts over trailing observations).
- Liquidity momentum: stable (+2.4 pts over trailing observations).

Deterioration monitor:
- No persistent 3-run deterioration or improvement signals detected.

3D/11 Market / Economy Divergence Monitor
- Market regime: Mixed / Transitional.
- Economic regime: Expansionary.
- Current alignment read: Market Regime: Mixed / Transitional. Economic Regime: Expansionary. Alignment is mixed and should be monitored.
- Market / economy divergence risk: Low.
- Reason: market and economic regimes are not showing a major contradiction based on current pillar scores.

3E/11 Economic Data Freshness Monitor
- Overall data freshness: Recent (71/100).
- Monthly official macro data often lag by one to two months; weekly claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data provide the faster confirmation layer.
- Lagged official-data inputs: Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY, Manufacturers New Orders YoY, Retail Sales YoY, Retail Sales 3M Annualized, Industrial Production YoY, Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate 3M Change, ...
- Current/faster confirmation inputs: Initial Claims 4W Avg, Initial Claims 13W Change, High Yield OAS, High Yield OAS 13W Change, Investment Grade OAS, Investment Grade OAS 13W Change, Chicago Fed NFCI, NFCI 13W Change, ...
- Interpretation note: data freshness is adequate, with faster indicators helping confirm or challenge the slower official macro data.

Pillar freshness:
- Growth: Lagged (avg age 69d; freshest Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY as of 2026-06-01; oldest Manufacturers New Orders YoY as of 2026-05-01).
- Labor: Recent (avg age 45d; freshest Initial Claims 4W Avg as of 2026-07-25; oldest Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change as of 2026-06-01).
- Inflation Pressure: Lagged (avg age 63d; freshest CPI YoY as of 2026-06-01; oldest CPI YoY as of 2026-06-01).
- Credit: Current (avg age 6d; freshest High Yield OAS as of 2026-07-30; oldest Chicago Fed NFCI as of 2026-07-24).
- Liquidity: Recent (avg age 28d; freshest Reverse Repo 13W Change as of 2026-07-31; oldest M2 Money Supply YoY as of 2026-06-01).

3F/11 Economic Signal Defensibility
- This is the latest official macro-regime read, not a real-time nowcast.
- Slow official data should be read alongside faster confirmation from claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data.

- Raw vs freshness-adjusted pillar scores:
- Growth: raw 75/100 | freshness-adjusted 71/100 | freshness: Lagged
- Labor: raw 68/100 | freshness-adjusted 67/100 | freshness: Recent
- Inflation Pressure: raw 44/100 | freshness-adjusted 45/100 | freshness: Lagged
- Credit: raw 83/100 | freshness-adjusted 83/100 | freshness: Current
- Liquidity: raw 67/100 | freshness-adjusted 66/100 | freshness: Recent

- Interpretation caveats:
- Growth and labor are economically important but can lag turning points.
- Credit is the faster financial-conditions confirmation layer, not a direct measure of real economic output.
- Inflation Pressure is directional: higher means more inflation pressure, not a better inflation backdrop.
- Liquidity is a plumbing/policy mix and should be interpreted with sign logic, not as a simple risk-on/risk-off score.

3G/11 Official Macro vs Faster Confirmation
- Slow official macro: Growth 75/100, Labor 68/100, Inflation Pressure 44/100.
- Faster financial confirmation: Credit 83/100, Liquidity 67/100.
- Credit conditions are currently supportive and not signaling broad stress.

3H/11 Liquidity Interpretation Notes
- Fed balance sheet growth is generally liquidity-supportive; contraction is generally less supportive.
- M2 growth is a broad money/liquidity proxy, but it is lagged and regime-dependent.
- Reverse Repo changes are money-market plumbing; falling RRP can release liquidity, while rising RRP can absorb cash.
- Treasury General Account changes affect reserve liquidity; falling TGA can add liquidity, while rising TGA can drain it.
- Fed funds is better read as policy restrictiveness than pure liquidity.

4/11 Growth / Labor / Inflation / Credit / Liquidity Pillars
Growth: 75/100 - Expanding
  Growth is broadly supportive of risk assets.
  - Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.15% | component score 59
  - Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 2.31% | component score 56
  - Retail Sales YoY: 6.72% | component score 100
  - Retail Sales 3M Annualized: 7.94% | component score 100
  - Industrial Production YoY: 1.14% | component score 59

Labor: 68/100 - Tight
  Labor remains supportive, though it may also limit policy easing.
  - Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 111k | component score 54
  - Unemployment Rate: 4.20% | component score 77
  - Unemployment Rate 3M Change: -0.10 ppt | component score 83
  - Initial Claims 4W Avg: 202,750 | component score 81
  - Initial Claims 13W Change: 3.68% | component score 45

Inflation Pressure: 44/100 - Moderate / Watch
  Inflation pressure is moderate but should be watched for direction of travel.
  - CPI YoY: 3.73% | component score 43
  - Core CPI YoY: 2.81% | component score 23
  - PPI YoY: 5.51% | component score 92
  - Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 3.52% | component score 17

Credit: 83/100 - Loose
  Credit conditions are supportive and not signaling broad stress.
  - High Yield OAS: 2.84% | component score 100
  - High Yield OAS 13W Change: 0.07 ppt | component score 62
  - Investment Grade OAS: 0.80% | component score 100
  - Investment Grade OAS 13W Change: -0.01 ppt | component score 68
  - Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.55 | component score 96
  - NFCI 13W Change: -0.07 | component score 73

Liquidity: 67/100 - Neutral
  Liquidity is not clearly supportive or restrictive.
  - Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.57% | component score 70
  - M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.53% | component score 95
  - Reverse Repo 13W Change: 1.5 | component score 50
  - Treasury General Account 13W Change: -71,153.0 | component score 62
  - Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% | component score 59

5/11 Market Regime vs Economic Regime Alignment
Market Regime: Mixed / Transitional. Economic Regime: Expansionary. Alignment is mixed and should be monitored.

6/11 Historical Economic Context
History file: /app/data/history/economic_regime_history.csv
Current history observations: 12
Growth was little changed (+0.0 pts). Labor weakened (-10.2 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit weakened (-2.0 pts). Liquidity weakened (-3.7 pts).

7/11 Key Economic Inputs
- Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.15% as of 2026-06-01
- Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 2.31% as of 2026-05-01
- Retail Sales YoY: 6.72% as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial Production YoY: 1.14% as of 2026-06-01
- Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 111k as of 2026-06-01
- Unemployment Rate: 4.20% as of 2026-06-01
- Initial Claims 4W Avg: 202,750 as of 2026-07-25
- CPI YoY: 3.73% as of 2026-06-01
- Core CPI YoY: 2.81% as of 2026-06-01
- High Yield OAS: 2.84% as of 2026-07-30
- Investment Grade OAS: 0.80% as of 2026-07-30
- Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.55 as of 2026-07-24
- Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.57% as of 2026-07-29
- M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.53% as of 2026-06-01
- Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% as of 2026-06-01

Charts
- /app/data/charts/economic_regime_pillars.png
- /app/data/charts/economic_regime_history.png