# The Market Fieldbook — Weekly Economic Snapshot **As of:** 2026-07-20 **Current Economic Regime:** Expansionary **Confidence:** High **Input Availability:** 100% **Overall Freshness:** Recent (70/100) > How to read this report ## The economy in one minute Current economic conditions remain broadly expansionary. Growth, labor, and credit are supportive, while inflation pressure is moderate and liquidity is not materially restrictive. Although growth momentum is weakening across recent snapshots, the overall level of activity is still expanding. The slower official data aligns with faster confirmation indicators, reinforcing the current classification of expansionary. ## Current economic field read | Pillar | Score | Current interpretation | |----------------------|-------|--------------------------------| | Growth | 74.8 | Expanding | | Labor | 69.1 | Tight | | Inflation Pressure | 43.8 | Moderate / Watch | | Credit | 85.5 | Loose | | Liquidity | 64.6 | Neutral | ## What changed in the latest snapshot In the latest week, the growth score deteriorated by 2.3 points, indicating a slight weakening in growth momentum. The labor, inflation pressure, credit, and liquidity scores remained broadly stable compared to the prior run. ## What the pattern is saying ### Growth The growth score is currently at 74.8, indicating expansion. However, it has weakened slightly from the previous observation. ### Labor The labor score remains tight at 69.1, suggesting supportive conditions, though it may limit policy easing. ### Inflation pressure Inflation pressure is moderate at 43.8, which should be monitored for any directional changes. ### Credit Credit conditions are loose at 85.5, indicating strong support without signaling broad stress. ### Liquidity Liquidity is neutral at 64.6, suggesting it is neither clearly supportive nor restrictive. ## Market and economy together The market regime is currently mixed/transitional, while the economic regime is expansionary. This alignment is mixed and should be monitored closely. ## Why this matters for investors Understanding the economic backdrop is crucial for assessing company research, earnings durability, cyclicality, financing conditions, and portfolio observation. The current expansionary environment suggests that growth and credit conditions are favorable for businesses, while inflation pressure remains moderate. ## What would change the conclusion A change in the economic regime would require confirmation across multiple pillars and snapshots, particularly if there were signs of broad multi-pillar deterioration. ## What to watch next 1. Monitor changes in growth momentum. 2. Watch for shifts in inflation pressure. 3. Observe labor market developments. 4. Keep an eye on credit conditions. 5. Track liquidity indicators. ## Data freshness: what is current and what is lagged Current data includes credit and liquidity indicators, while growth and inflation pressure metrics are lagged. ## Important limitations This report reflects the latest official macro-regime read and should be interpreted alongside faster confirmation data. --- # Detailed Data Appendix Weekly Economic Regime Report As of: 2026-07-20 Economic Regime Methodology: v2.0 Methodology effective date: 2026-07-14 1/11 Economic Strategist Summary Economic Regime: Expansionary Confidence: High (100% input availability) Current economic conditions remain broadly expansionary: growth, labor, and credit are supportive, while inflation pressure is moderate and liquidity is not materially restrictive. 2/11 What Changed Since Prior Economic Run - Growth score deteriorated by 2.3 pts versus the prior run. - Labor score was broadly stable versus the prior run. - Inflation Pressure score was broadly stable versus the prior run. - Credit score was broadly stable versus the prior run. - Liquidity score was broadly stable versus the prior run. Historical context: Growth weakened (-2.3 pts). Labor was little changed (+0.0 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit was little changed (+0.2 pts). Liquidity was little changed (+0.0 pts). 3/11 Economic Regime Dashboard Growth: 75/100 - Expanding Labor: 69/100 - Tight Inflation Pressure: 44/100 - Moderate / Watch Credit: 86/100 - Loose Liquidity: 65/100 - Neutral 3A/11 Economic Classification Rationale - Current-state classification: Expansionary. - The regime label is based primarily on current pillar levels. Momentum, persistence, transition pressure, and data freshness are evaluated separately. - Growth: 75/100 (Expanding); classification assessment: supportive. - Labor: 69/100 (Tight); classification assessment: supportive. - Inflation Pressure: 44/100 (Moderate / Watch); classification assessment: moderate or contained. - Credit: 86/100 (Loose); classification assessment: supportive. - Liquidity: 65/100 (Neutral); classification assessment: not materially restrictive. - Expansionary was selected because growth, labor, and credit are supportive, inflation pressure is below the elevated threshold, and liquidity is not materially restrictive. 3B/11 Economic Transition Monitor - Current economic regime: Expansionary. - Prior economic regime: Expansionary. - Regime duration: 3 weekly observation(s). - Regime changed this run: No. - Transition pressure: Low. - Main transition pressure: no broad multi-pillar deterioration signal. - Potential transition risk: no single transition path is dominant yet. 3C/11 Economic Momentum + Deterioration Monitor Economic momentum: - Growth momentum: stable (-2.4 pts over trailing observations). - Labor momentum: stable (-0.3 pts over trailing observations). - Inflation Pressure momentum: easing (-6.6 pts over trailing observations). - Credit momentum: stable (-1.3 pts over trailing observations). - Liquidity momentum: stable (+0.5 pts over trailing observations). Deterioration monitor: - No persistent 3-run deterioration or improvement signals detected. 3D/11 Market / Economy Divergence Monitor - Market regime: Mixed / Transitional. - Economic regime: Expansionary. - Current alignment read: Market Regime: Mixed / Transitional. Economic Regime: Expansionary. Alignment is mixed and should be monitored. - Market / economy divergence risk: Low. - Reason: market and economic regimes are not showing a major contradiction based on current pillar scores. 3E/11 Economic Data Freshness Monitor - Overall data freshness: Recent (70/100). - Monthly official macro data often lag by one to two months; weekly claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data provide the faster confirmation layer. - Lagged official-data inputs: Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY, Manufacturers New Orders YoY, Retail Sales YoY, Retail Sales 3M Annualized, Industrial Production YoY, Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change, Unemployment Rate, Unemployment Rate 3M Change, ... - Current/faster confirmation inputs: Initial Claims 4W Avg, Initial Claims 13W Change, High Yield OAS, High Yield OAS 13W Change, Investment Grade OAS, Investment Grade OAS 13W Change, Chicago Fed NFCI, NFCI 13W Change, ... - Interpretation note: data freshness is adequate, with faster indicators helping confirm or challenge the slower official macro data. Pillar freshness: - Growth: Lagged (avg age 55d; freshest Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY as of 2026-06-01; oldest Manufacturers New Orders YoY as of 2026-05-01). - Labor: Recent (avg age 36d; freshest Initial Claims 4W Avg as of 2026-07-11; oldest Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change as of 2026-06-01). - Inflation Pressure: Lagged (avg age 49d; freshest CPI YoY as of 2026-06-01; oldest CPI YoY as of 2026-06-01). - Credit: Current (avg age 6d; freshest High Yield OAS as of 2026-07-16; oldest Chicago Fed NFCI as of 2026-07-10). - Liquidity: Recent (avg age 28d; freshest Reverse Repo 13W Change as of 2026-07-17; oldest M2 Money Supply YoY as of 2026-05-01). 3F/11 Economic Signal Defensibility - This is the latest official macro-regime read, not a real-time nowcast. - Slow official data should be read alongside faster confirmation from claims, credit spreads, financial conditions, and Fed balance-sheet data. - Raw vs freshness-adjusted pillar scores: - Growth: raw 75/100 | freshness-adjusted 71/100 | freshness: Lagged - Labor: raw 69/100 | freshness-adjusted 68/100 | freshness: Recent - Inflation Pressure: raw 44/100 | freshness-adjusted 45/100 | freshness: Lagged - Credit: raw 86/100 | freshness-adjusted 86/100 | freshness: Current - Liquidity: raw 65/100 | freshness-adjusted 64/100 | freshness: Recent - Interpretation caveats: - Growth and labor are economically important but can lag turning points. - Credit is the faster financial-conditions confirmation layer, not a direct measure of real economic output. - Inflation Pressure is directional: higher means more inflation pressure, not a better inflation backdrop. - Liquidity is a plumbing/policy mix and should be interpreted with sign logic, not as a simple risk-on/risk-off score. 3G/11 Official Macro vs Faster Confirmation - Slow official macro: Growth 75/100, Labor 69/100, Inflation Pressure 44/100. - Faster financial confirmation: Credit 86/100, Liquidity 65/100. - Credit conditions are currently supportive and not signaling broad stress. 3H/11 Liquidity Interpretation Notes - Fed balance sheet growth is generally liquidity-supportive; contraction is generally less supportive. - M2 growth is a broad money/liquidity proxy, but it is lagged and regime-dependent. - Reverse Repo changes are money-market plumbing; falling RRP can release liquidity, while rising RRP can absorb cash. - Treasury General Account changes affect reserve liquidity; falling TGA can add liquidity, while rising TGA can drain it. - Fed funds is better read as policy restrictiveness than pure liquidity. 4/11 Growth / Labor / Inflation / Credit / Liquidity Pillars Growth: 75/100 - Expanding Growth is broadly supportive of risk assets. - Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.15% | component score 59 - Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 2.31% | component score 56 - Retail Sales YoY: 6.72% | component score 100 - Retail Sales 3M Annualized: 7.94% | component score 100 - Industrial Production YoY: 1.14% | component score 59 Labor: 69/100 - Tight Labor remains supportive, though it may also limit policy easing. - Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 111k | component score 54 - Unemployment Rate: 4.20% | component score 77 - Unemployment Rate 3M Change: -0.10 ppt | component score 83 - Initial Claims 4W Avg: 214,250 | component score 72 - Initial Claims 13W Change: 0.00% | component score 60 Inflation Pressure: 44/100 - Moderate / Watch Inflation pressure is moderate but should be watched for direction of travel. - CPI YoY: 3.73% | component score 43 - Core CPI YoY: 2.81% | component score 23 - PPI YoY: 5.51% | component score 92 - Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 3.52% | component score 17 Credit: 86/100 - Loose Credit conditions are supportive and not signaling broad stress. - High Yield OAS: 2.71% | component score 100 - High Yield OAS 13W Change: -0.12 ppt | component score 75 - Investment Grade OAS: 0.78% | component score 100 - Investment Grade OAS 13W Change: -0.02 ppt | component score 69 - Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.54 | component score 95 - NFCI 13W Change: -0.07 | component score 74 Liquidity: 65/100 - Neutral Liquidity is not clearly supportive or restrictive. - Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.56% | component score 70 - M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.58% | component score 95 - Reverse Repo 13W Change: -0.0 | component score 50 - Treasury General Account 13W Change: 4,864.0 | component score 49 - Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% | component score 59 5/11 Market Regime vs Economic Regime Alignment Market Regime: Mixed / Transitional. Economic Regime: Expansionary. Alignment is mixed and should be monitored. 6/11 Historical Economic Context History file: /app/data/history/economic_regime_history.csv Current history observations: 10 Growth weakened (-2.3 pts). Labor was little changed (+0.0 pts). Inflation Pressure was little changed (+0.0 pts, inflation pressure broadly stable). Credit was little changed (+0.2 pts). Liquidity was little changed (+0.0 pts). 7/11 Key Economic Inputs - Manufacturing Industrial Production YoY: 1.15% as of 2026-06-01 - Manufacturers New Orders YoY: 2.31% as of 2026-05-01 - Retail Sales YoY: 6.72% as of 2026-06-01 - Industrial Production YoY: 1.14% as of 2026-06-01 - Nonfarm Payrolls 3M Avg Change: 111k as of 2026-06-01 - Unemployment Rate: 4.20% as of 2026-06-01 - Initial Claims 4W Avg: 214,250 as of 2026-07-11 - CPI YoY: 3.73% as of 2026-06-01 - Core CPI YoY: 2.81% as of 2026-06-01 - High Yield OAS: 2.71% as of 2026-07-16 - Investment Grade OAS: 0.78% as of 2026-07-16 - Chicago Fed NFCI: -0.54 as of 2026-07-10 - Fed Balance Sheet 13W Change: 0.56% as of 2026-07-15 - M2 Money Supply YoY: 5.58% as of 2026-05-01 - Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.63% as of 2026-06-01 Charts - /app/data/charts/economic_regime_pillars.png - /app/data/charts/economic_regime_history.png