# The Market Fieldbook — Daily Market Snapshot

**Snapshot generated:** 2026-09-18 08:30 UTC
**Latest market data:** 2026-09-17
**Current regime:** Mixed / Transitional
**Current subregime:** Mixed Confirmation
**Internal market health:** 7/100 (Fragile)
**Regime momentum:** 62/100 (Stable)
**Regime duration:** 1 snapshot
**History sample:** 75 snapshots

> **How to read this report**
>
> Start with the bottom line, then use the changes and watch list to understand what could strengthen or weaken it. Scores summarize multiple market measures on a 0–100 scale. The appendix preserves the underlying data and technical detail.

## The market in one minute

The market is giving mixed signals. Some risk indicators remain supportive, but leadership and participation are uneven. The evidence calls for patience and selectivity rather than a strong risk-on or risk-off conclusion. The risk backdrop is mixed. Market participation is uneven. Large growth stocks are leading. The average S&P 500 stock is not confirming the cap-weighted index.

## Current field read

- The risk backdrop is mixed.
- Market participation is uneven.
- Large growth stocks are leading.
- The average S&P 500 stock is not confirming the cap-weighted index.
- Credit: not confirming.
- Volatility remains contained.
- Defensive assets are gaining relative strength.

## What changed in the latest snapshot

- The risk-on score rose by 15.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- The growth-leadership score rose by 20.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- Momentum leadership improved by 18.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- Defensive demand eased by 23.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- The credit-risk score rose by 20.0 points versus the previous snapshot.
- The share of tracked ETFs with positive one-month returns rose by 5.9 points versus the previous snapshot.
- QQQ vs SPY improved by 1.6 percentage points versus the previous snapshot.
- RSP vs SPY deteriorated by 0.9 percentage points versus the previous snapshot.

One snapshot can be noisy. A move becomes more meaningful when it continues across several readings or is confirmed by other measures.

## What the recent pattern is saying

1. Risk appetite is stable, and its score is 1.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
2. Growth leadership is stable, and its score is 3.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
3. Momentum leadership is deteriorating, and its score is 12.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago.
4. Small-cap participation is deteriorating, and its score is 4.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago.
5. Breadth is improving, and its score is 11.8 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
6. Credit risk appetite is improving, and its score is 8.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
7. Transition: Credit markets are no longer confirming risk appetite.
8. Persistence: Small-cap participation has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations.
9. Persistence: Credit participation has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations.

## Confirmation check

### Risk appetite

- Risk-on confirmations: 2/5
- No: SPY positive over T1
- Yes: QQQ outperforming SPY
- No: HYG outperforming TLT
- Yes: VIX below 20
- No: ETF breadth above 70%
- Defensive confirmations: 2/5
- No: USMV outperforming SPY
- Yes: GLD outperforming SPY
- No: XLU outperforming SPY
- Yes: TLT positive over T1
- No: HY spreads widening

### Credit

- Credit diagnostics:
- Spread stress: HY spreads appear calm at 2.70.
- Credit ETF confirmation: HYG-TLT is -1.0% over T1, so credit beta is not confirming.

### Defensive assets

- Defensive diagnostics:
- Equity defensives: 1/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
- Macro defensives: 3/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.

## Global confirmation

- Global participation score: 43/100 (Mixed participation)
- Global relative-leadership score: 70/100 (Global leadership)
- Absolute global participation:
- Global equities: ACWI -0.3% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities: VXUS +0.1% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S.: VEA -0.3% over T1
- EAFE developed markets: IEFA -1.0% over T1
- Emerging markets: VWO +0.5% over T1
- Relative global leadership:
- Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY +0.3% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY +0.7% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY +0.3% over T1
- EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY -0.3% over T1
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY +1.1% over T1
- Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA +0.8% over T1
- Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA +3.6% over T1
- China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO -4.5% over T1
- India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO -3.2% over T1
- Dollar backdrop: UUP T1 +0.9%
- Global read-through: Global participation and relative leadership are mixed; the absolute and relative evidence should be monitored separately.

**Plain-English global read:** Global participation and relative leadership are mixed; the absolute and relative evidence should be monitored separately.

## Why this matters

The market regime is more dependable when participation, leadership, credit, volatility, defensive assets, and global markets point in the same direction. When they disagree, the better interpretation is usually mixed or transitional rather than strongly bullish or bearish.

## What would change the conclusion

A stronger conclusion requires several independent measures to improve or deteriorate together and remain there across repeated snapshots.

Current warning evidence:

- No major tactical warning signals currently detected.

## What to watch in the next snapshots

1. Watch whether credit markets are no longer confirming risk appetite persists.
2. Watch the next reading: Risk appetite is stable, and its score is 1.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
3. Watch the next reading: Growth leadership is stable, and its score is 3.0 points higher than 5 snapshots ago.
4. Watch the next reading: Momentum leadership is deteriorating, and its score is 12.0 points lower than 5 snapshots ago.

## Important limitations

This report describes observed market conditions. It is not a forecast, trading signal, or personalized investment recommendation. Scores summarize the supplied evidence; they do not establish investor motives, company fundamentals, or future returns.

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# Detailed Data Appendix

Daily ETF + Macro Strategist Note
Generated: 2026-09-18 08:30 UTC
Latest ETF price date: 2026-09-17
Lookbacks: T1=trailing 1M, T3=trailing 3M, T6=trailing 6M, T9=trailing 9M, T12=trailing 12M

1/9 Strategist Summary
Strategist summary:
- Current regime read: Mixed / Transitional.
- ETF breadth: T1 24% | T3 62% | T6 82% | T12 85%.
- QQQ vs SPY: +0.5% over T1.
- RSP vs SPY: -2.3% over T1.
- MTUM vs SPY: -1.0% over T1.
- IWM vs SPY: -4.0% over T1.
- HYG vs TLT: -1.0% over T1.
- CMA-related quality/cash-generation proxy: QUAL vs SPY -1.5%, SPHQ vs SPY -3.1%, COWZ vs SPY +0.2% over T1. These are fresh ETF proxies for quality/cash-generation behavior, not substitutes for the Ken French CMA factor.
- Reversal-related momentum-unwind proxy: MTUM vs SPY -1.0%, SPMO vs SPY -2.3%, VLUE vs MTUM +1.9% over T1. Weakening momentum leadership with value/recovery improvement can flag reversal pressure; this is a proxy, not the academic reversal factor.
- Global vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY +0.3% over T1.
- Ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY +0.7% over T1.
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY +1.1% over T1.
- Volatility is contained with VIX at 15.44.

2/9 What Changed Since Prior Run
- Risk-on appetite improved by 15.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Growth leadership improved by 20.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Momentum leadership improved by 18.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Defensive demand eased by 23.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Credit risk appetite improved by 20.0 pts versus the prior run.
- T1 ETF breadth improved by 5.9 pts versus the prior run.
- QQQ vs SPY improved by 1.6 percentage points versus the prior run.
- RSP vs SPY deteriorated by 0.9 percentage points versus the prior run.

3/9 Tactical Signal Dashboard
- Risk backdrop: mixed.
- Breadth: mixed.
- Growth leadership: leading.
- Equal-weight confirmation: not confirming.
- Credit: not confirming.
- Volatility: contained.
- Defensive demand: rising.

3B/9 Regime Transition Monitor
- Credit markets are no longer confirming risk appetite.

Tactical warnings:
- No major tactical warning signals currently detected.

3C/9 Historical Context + Divergence
- Concentration risk score: 78/100 (Elevated concentration risk / narrow leadership)

Historical percentiles:
- Risk appetite: 7th percentile
- T1 breadth: 8th percentile
- QQQ vs SPY: 70th percentile
- RSP vs SPY: 4th percentile
- Credit beta vs duration: 14th percentile
- VIX: 26th percentile

Regime momentum:
- Risk appetite: stable (+1.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Growth leadership: stable (+3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Momentum leadership: deteriorating (-12.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Small-cap participation: deteriorating (-4.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Breadth: improving (+11.8 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Credit risk appetite: improving (+8.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Defensive demand: deteriorating (-19.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)

Statistical abnormality monitor:
- Breadth is normal (-0.9σ, below normal).
- Mega-cap leadership is normal (+0.3σ, above normal).
- Equal-weight participation is moderately abnormal (-1.3σ, below normal).
- Small-cap participation is moderately abnormal (-1.8σ, below normal).
- Credit participation is historically extreme (-2.0σ, below normal).

Percentile monitor:
- Breadth is very weak (9th percentile).
- Mega-cap leadership is above average (71st percentile).
- Equal-weight participation is very weak (5th percentile).
- Small-cap participation is historically rare weakness (1st percentile).
- Credit participation is very weak (15th percentile).

Signal deterioration monitor:
- Small-cap participation has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations.
- Credit participation has deteriorated for 3 consecutive observations.

3D/9 Signal Defensibility Diagnostics
- Market subregime: Mixed Confirmation
Credit diagnostics:
- Spread stress: HY spreads appear calm at 2.70.
- Credit ETF confirmation: HYG-TLT is -1.0% over T1, so credit beta is not confirming.
Defensive diagnostics:
- Equity defensives: 1/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
- Macro defensives: 3/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
Duration diagnostics:
- Treasury ETF trend: TLT T1 +0.5%; IEF T1 -1.5%.
- Rate impulse: 2Y 4.67 (-0.07 d/d); 10Y 4.94 (-0.07 d/d); 10Y-2Y curve 0.27 (+0.00 d/d).

4/9 Market State Dashboard
Market regime: Mixed / Transitional
Current regime duration: 1 run
Internal health: 7/100 (Fragile)
Regime momentum: 62/100 (Stable)

Regime scorecard:
- Risk-on appetite: 44/100 (LOW confidence)
- Defensive demand: 42/100 (LOW confidence)
- Growth leadership: 57/100 (LOW confidence)
- Small-cap participation: 24/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
- Momentum leadership: 38/100 (LOW confidence)
- Real asset/inflation leadership: 63/100 (LOW confidence)
- Credit risk appetite: 55/100 (LOW confidence)
- Duration support: 71/100 (MEDIUM confidence)

Confirmation dashboard:
Risk-on confirmations: 2/5
- No: SPY positive over T1
- Yes: QQQ outperforming SPY
- No: HYG outperforming TLT
- Yes: VIX below 20
- No: ETF breadth above 70%
Defensive confirmations: 2/5
- No: USMV outperforming SPY
- Yes: GLD outperforming SPY
- No: XLU outperforming SPY
- Yes: TLT positive over T1
- No: HY spreads widening

5/9 ETF Dashboard

Market beta
SPY (S&P 500): T1 -0.6%, T3 +3.2%, T6 +15.9%, T9 +13.0%, T12 +16.8%
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): T1 -0.1%, T3 -0.7%, T6 +20.8%, T9 +17.9%, T12 +21.9%
RSP (Equal Weight S&P 500): T1 -2.9%, T3 +2.5%, T6 +11.2%, T9 +11.5%, T12 +15.3%
IWM (Russell 2000): T1 -4.7%, T3 -1.3%, T6 +16.6%, T9 +14.4%, T12 +21.0%
DIA (Dow): T1 -2.7%, T3 +0.8%, T6 +12.7%, T9 +8.0%, T12 +14.7%

Factor/style
MTUM (Momentum): T1 -1.6%, T3 -6.6%, T6 +24.7%, T9 +24.1%, T12 +21.6%
SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum): T1 -2.9%, T3 -5.6%, T6 +26.8%, T9 +24.3%, T12 +22.1%
QUAL (Quality): T1 -2.1%, T3 +2.3%, T6 +13.3%, T9 +10.7%, T12 +15.8%
SPHQ (S&P 500 Quality): T1 -3.8%, T3 -5.3%, T6 +10.5%, T9 +11.0%, T12 +16.4%
COWZ (Free Cash Flow Yield): T1 -0.4%, T3 +12.7%, T6 +13.0%, T9 +16.0%, T12 +24.7%
USMV (Min Vol): T1 -1.3%, T3 +4.8%, T6 +6.4%, T9 +5.8%, T12 +7.7%
VLUE (Enhanced Value): T1 +0.3%, T3 +2.4%, T6 +38.8%, T9 +48.9%, T12 +68.4%
VTV (Value): T1 -2.0%, T3 +3.1%, T6 +13.9%, T9 +16.6%, T12 +22.8%
VUG (Growth): T1 +0.6%, T3 +3.4%, T6 +18.2%, T9 +10.2%, T12 +12.1%
AVUV (Small Value): T1 -3.0%, T3 +1.8%, T6 +15.9%, T9 +18.2%, T12 +24.4%
DFSV (Small Value Profitability): T1 -2.7%, T3 +4.0%, T6 +16.0%, T9 +17.5%, T12 +23.6%

Sectors
XLK (Technology): T1 +1.3%, T3 +1.3%, T6 +36.6%, T9 +32.7%, T12 +38.8%
XLC (Communication Services): T1 +1.7%, T3 +3.2%, T6 -0.6%, T9 -2.7%, T12 -4.0%
XLY (Consumer Discretionary): T1 -4.3%, T3 -3.4%, T6 +1.1%, T9 -7.9%, T12 -7.3%
XLI (Industrials): T1 -7.9%, T3 -5.7%, T6 +2.9%, T9 +8.6%, T12 +12.7%
XLF (Financials): T1 -3.4%, T3 +3.7%, T6 +15.1%, T9 +2.9%, T12 +6.0%
XLE (Energy): T1 +1.3%, T3 +18.8%, T6 +11.9%, T9 +45.9%, T12 +48.1%
XLB (Materials): T1 -2.1%, T3 -2.2%, T6 +5.5%, T9 +13.9%, T12 +13.9%
XLV (Healthcare): T1 -0.5%, T3 +12.5%, T6 +15.7%, T9 +9.5%, T12 +25.4%
XLP (Consumer Staples): T1 -2.4%, T3 +0.5%, T6 +2.3%, T9 +7.0%, T12 +7.6%
XLU (Utilities): T1 -5.3%, T3 -5.6%, T6 -9.6%, T9 -1.5%, T12 +1.9%
XLRE (Real Estate): T1 -3.8%, T3 -1.5%, T6 +3.8%, T9 +7.8%, T12 +5.6%

Global/international
ACWI (Global Equities): T1 -0.3%, T3 +2.4%, T6 +15.0%, T9 +14.3%, T12 +18.2%
VXUS (Total International ex-US): T1 +0.1%, T3 +0.9%, T6 +12.6%, T9 +16.7%, T12 +20.7%
VEA (Developed Markets ex-US): T1 -0.3%, T3 +0.7%, T6 +13.0%, T9 +17.6%, T12 +23.3%
IEFA (EAFE Developed Markets): T1 -1.0%, T3 +2.2%, T6 +11.5%, T9 +13.3%, T12 +17.3%
VWO (Emerging Markets): T1 +0.5%, T3 +0.3%, T6 +10.6%, T9 +13.7%, T12 +13.5%
EEM (Emerging Markets): T1 +2.4%, T3 -2.4%, T6 +16.8%, T9 +26.1%, T12 +28.6%
EWJ (Japan): T1 +2.7%, T3 +3.7%, T6 +17.0%, T9 +20.3%, T12 +25.5%
EWU (United Kingdom): T1 -0.4%, T3 +4.4%, T6 +7.2%, T9 +13.3%, T12 +18.3%
EWQ (France): T1 -5.0%, T3 -2.1%, T6 +5.5%, T9 +1.2%, T12 +4.3%
EWG (Germany): T1 -2.3%, T3 +3.2%, T6 +9.5%, T9 +3.4%, T12 +5.8%
MCHI (China): T1 -4.1%, T3 -0.6%, T6 -7.4%, T9 -11.8%, T12 -17.3%
FXI (China Large Cap): T1 -2.5%, T3 +1.6%, T6 -4.8%, T9 -10.1%, T12 -15.2%
INDA (India): T1 -2.8%, T3 -2.1%, T6 +0.6%, T9 -9.6%, T12 -10.9%
EWC (Canada): T1 -1.9%, T3 +3.8%, T6 +10.7%, T9 +13.8%, T12 +22.3%
EWA (Australia): T1 -1.6%, T3 +1.7%, T6 +5.5%, T9 +13.7%, T12 +9.7%

Macro assets
GLD (Gold): T1 -0.0%, T3 +2.5%, T6 -10.4%, T9 +0.6%, T12 +17.3%
DBC (Commodities): T1 +8.4%, T3 +19.3%, T6 +12.9%, T9 +49.8%, T12 +50.0%
TLT (Long Treasuries): T1 +0.5%, T3 -4.2%, T6 -3.8%, T9 -3.2%, T12 -5.3%
IEF (Intermediate Treasuries): T1 -1.5%, T3 -1.9%, T6 -2.7%, T9 -2.4%, T12 -2.4%
HYG (High Yield Credit): T1 -0.5%, T3 +0.2%, T6 +2.2%, T9 +2.1%, T12 +2.9%
LQD (Investment Grade Credit): T1 -0.2%, T3 -2.2%, T6 -0.9%, T9 -1.3%, T12 -1.9%
UUP (US Dollar): T1 +0.9%, T3 +0.7%, T6 +1.9%, T9 +5.1%, T12 +8.2%

6/9 Relative Leadership
Growth/mega-cap vs broad market: QQQ-SPY | T1 +0.5%, T3 -3.9%, T6 +4.9%, T9 +4.9%, T12 +5.0%
Equal-weight vs cap-weight: RSP-SPY | T1 -2.3%, T3 -0.7%, T6 -4.8%, T9 -1.5%, T12 -1.6%
Small caps vs large caps: IWM-SPY | T1 -4.0%, T3 -4.5%, T6 +0.7%, T9 +1.5%, T12 +4.2%
Momentum vs broad market: MTUM-SPY | T1 -1.0%, T3 -9.7%, T6 +8.8%, T9 +11.1%, T12 +4.8%
S&P 500 momentum vs broad market: SPMO-SPY | T1 -2.3%, T3 -8.8%, T6 +10.9%, T9 +11.4%, T12 +5.2%
Quality vs broad market: QUAL-SPY | T1 -1.5%, T3 -0.9%, T6 -2.6%, T9 -2.3%, T12 -1.0%
S&P 500 quality vs broad market: SPHQ-SPY | T1 -3.1%, T3 -8.5%, T6 -5.4%, T9 -2.0%, T12 -0.4%
Free-cash-flow yield vs broad market: COWZ-SPY | T1 +0.2%, T3 +9.6%, T6 -2.9%, T9 +3.1%, T12 +7.9%
Minimum volatility vs broad market: USMV-SPY | T1 -0.7%, T3 +1.6%, T6 -9.5%, T9 -7.1%, T12 -9.1%
Enhanced value vs momentum: VLUE-MTUM | T1 +1.9%, T3 +9.0%, T6 +14.1%, T9 +24.8%, T12 +46.8%
Value vs growth: VTV-VUG | T1 -2.7%, T3 -0.3%, T6 -4.3%, T9 +6.3%, T12 +10.7%
Consumer discretionary vs staples: XLY-XLP | T1 -1.8%, T3 -3.8%, T6 -1.2%, T9 -15.0%, T12 -14.9%
Industrials vs utilities: XLI-XLU | T1 -2.6%, T3 -0.0%, T6 +12.4%, T9 +10.1%, T12 +10.9%
Energy vs technology: XLE-XLK | T1 -0.1%, T3 +17.5%, T6 -24.8%, T9 +13.2%, T12 +9.3%
Gold vs equities: GLD-SPY | T1 +0.6%, T3 -0.7%, T6 -26.3%, T9 -12.3%, T12 +0.5%
Credit beta vs duration: HYG-TLT | T1 -1.0%, T3 +4.4%, T6 +5.9%, T9 +5.3%, T12 +8.3%
Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY | T1 +0.3%, T3 -0.8%, T6 -1.0%, T9 +1.3%, T12 +1.3%
Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY | T1 +0.7%, T3 -2.3%, T6 -3.3%, T9 +3.8%, T12 +3.9%
Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY | T1 +0.3%, T3 -2.4%, T6 -2.9%, T9 +4.6%, T12 +6.4%
EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY | T1 -0.3%, T3 -1.0%, T6 -4.4%, T9 +0.4%, T12 +0.5%
Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY | T1 +1.1%, T3 -2.9%, T6 -5.3%, T9 +0.8%, T12 -3.4%
Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA | T1 +0.8%, T3 -0.4%, T6 -2.4%, T9 -3.8%, T12 -9.8%
Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA | T1 +3.6%, T3 +1.5%, T6 +5.5%, T9 +7.0%, T12 +8.2%
China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO | T1 -4.5%, T3 -0.9%, T6 -18.0%, T9 -25.6%, T12 -30.7%
India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO | T1 -3.2%, T3 -2.4%, T6 -10.0%, T9 -23.3%, T12 -24.3%

6B/9 Global / International Confirmation
Global participation score: 43/100 (Mixed participation)
Global relative-leadership score: 70/100 (Global leadership)

Absolute global participation:
- Global equities: ACWI -0.3% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities: VXUS +0.1% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S.: VEA -0.3% over T1
- EAFE developed markets: IEFA -1.0% over T1
- Emerging markets: VWO +0.5% over T1

Relative global leadership:
- Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY +0.3% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY +0.7% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY +0.3% over T1
- EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY -0.3% over T1
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY +1.1% over T1
- Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA +0.8% over T1
- Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA +3.6% over T1
- China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO -4.5% over T1
- India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO -3.2% over T1
- Dollar backdrop: UUP T1 +0.9%

Global read-through: Global participation and relative leadership are mixed; the absolute and relative evidence should be monitored separately.

7/9 U.S. Leaders and Laggards
Strongest U.S. trend scores:
+ VLUE (Enhanced Value): T1 +0.3%, T6 +38.8%, T12 +68.4%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -6.2%, Decelerating leadership
+ DBC (Commodities): T1 +8.4%, T6 +12.9%, T12 +50.0%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +6.3%, Persistent / accelerating
+ XLE (Energy): T1 +1.3%, T6 +11.9%, T12 +48.1%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -0.7%, Persistent leadership
+ XLK (Technology): T1 +1.3%, T6 +36.6%, T12 +38.8%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -4.8%, Decelerating leadership
+ COWZ (Free Cash Flow Yield): T1 -0.4%, T6 +13.0%, T12 +24.7%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -2.6%, Decelerating leadership
+ XLV (Healthcare): T1 -0.5%, T6 +15.7%, T12 +25.4%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -3.2%, Decelerating leadership
+ QQQ (Nasdaq 100): T1 -0.1%, T6 +20.8%, T12 +21.9%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -3.5%, Long-term leader, short-term fading
+ SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum): T1 -2.9%, T6 +26.8%, T12 +22.1%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -7.4%, Long-term leader, short-term fading

Weakest U.S. trend scores:
- XLU (Utilities): T1 -5.3%, T6 -9.6%, T12 +1.9%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -3.7%, Accelerating leadership
- XLY (Consumer Discretionary): T1 -4.3%, T6 +1.1%, T12 -7.3%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -4.5%, Decelerating leadership
- TLT (Long Treasuries): T1 +0.5%, T6 -3.8%, T12 -5.3%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration +1.2%, Emerging tactical leadership
- IEF (Intermediate Treasuries): T1 -1.5%, T6 -2.7%, T12 -2.4%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -1.0%, Accelerating leadership
- LQD (Investment Grade Credit): T1 -0.2%, T6 -0.9%, T12 -1.9%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -0.1%, Weak / failed leadership
- XLI (Industrials): T1 -7.9%, T6 +2.9%, T12 +12.7%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -8.4%, Decelerating leadership
- XLC (Communication Services): T1 +1.7%, T6 -0.6%, T12 -4.0%, Persistence 2/5, Acceleration +1.8%, Emerging tactical leadership
- XLRE (Real Estate): T1 -3.8%, T6 +3.8%, T12 +5.6%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -4.4%, Decelerating leadership

7B/9 Global Leaders and Laggards
Strongest global trend scores:
+ EWJ (Japan): T1 +2.7%, T6 +17.0%, T12 +25.5%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -0.2%, Decelerating leadership
+ EEM (Emerging Markets): T1 +2.4%, T6 +16.8%, T12 +28.6%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -0.4%, Persistent leadership
+ VEA (Developed Markets ex-US): T1 -0.3%, T6 +13.0%, T12 +23.3%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -2.5%, Decelerating leadership
+ ACWI (Global Equities): T1 -0.3%, T6 +15.0%, T12 +18.2%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -2.8%, Decelerating leadership
+ VXUS (Total International ex-US): T1 +0.1%, T6 +12.6%, T12 +20.7%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -2.0%, Decelerating leadership

Weakest global trend scores:
- MCHI (China): T1 -4.1%, T6 -7.4%, T12 -17.3%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration -2.8%, Weak / failed leadership
- FXI (China Large Cap): T1 -2.5%, T6 -4.8%, T12 -15.2%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -1.7%, Weak / failed leadership
- INDA (India): T1 -2.8%, T6 +0.6%, T12 -10.9%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -2.9%, Decelerating leadership
- EWQ (France): T1 -5.0%, T6 +5.5%, T12 +4.3%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -5.9%, Decelerating leadership
- EWG (Germany): T1 -2.3%, T6 +9.5%, T12 +5.8%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -3.9%, Decelerating leadership

8/9 Macro Snapshot
VIX: 15.44 (-2.27 d/d) as of 2026-09-17
3M Treasury: 4.12 (-0.02 d/d) as of 2026-09-17
2Y Treasury: 4.67 (-0.07 d/d) as of 2026-09-17
10Y Treasury: 4.94 (-0.07 d/d) as of 2026-09-17
10Y-2Y Curve: 0.27 (+0.00 d/d) as of 2026-09-17
HY Spread: 2.70 (-0.06 d/d) as of 2026-09-16
IG Spread: 0.78 (-0.02 d/d) as of 2026-09-16