# The Market Fieldbook — Daily Market Snapshot

**Snapshot generated:** 2026-07-21 08:30 UTC
**Latest market data:** 2026-07-20
**Current regime:** Mixed / Transitional
**Current subregime:** Mixed Confirmation
**Internal market health:** 76/100 (Stable)
**Regime momentum:** 59/100 (Stable)
**Regime duration:** 2 snapshots
**History sample:** 34 snapshots

> **How to read this report**
>
> This is not a recap of one trading session. It is a recurring measurement of participation, leadership, credit, volatility, defensive behavior, and global confirmation. Current levels, latest changes, and trailing multi-snapshot direction are separate evidence types.

## The market in one minute

The current market regime is **Mixed / Transitional**, with a **Mixed Confirmation** subregime. Internal market health is **76/100 (Stable)**, and regime momentum is **59/100 (Stable)**.

The current evidence should be interpreted from the supplied signal levels and repeated observations rather than from a single trading session.

## Current field read

- Risk backdrop: constructive.
- Breadth: mixed.
- Growth leadership: lagging.
- Equal-weight confirmation: confirming.
- Credit: confirming risk appetite.
- Volatility: contained.
- Defensive demand: rising.

## What changed in the latest snapshot

- Risk-on appetite improved by 6.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Small-cap participation deteriorated by 9.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Defensive demand increased by 1.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Credit risk appetite improved by 3.0 pts versus the prior run.
- T1 ETF breadth improved by 5.9 pts versus the prior run.
- HYG vs TLT improved by 1.3 percentage points versus the prior run.

These are changes between snapshots. They do not by themselves establish a persistent trend.

## What the pattern is saying

1. Risk appetite: deteriorating (-15.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
2. Growth leadership: deteriorating (-19.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
3. Momentum leadership: deteriorating (-29.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
4. Small-cap participation: stable (-3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
5. Breadth: deteriorating (-20.6 pts vs 5 runs ago)
6. Credit risk appetite: stable (+3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
7. Defensive demand: improving (+28.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
8. Transition monitor: Defensive demand is rising meaningfully versus recent runs.
9. Persistence check: No persistent 3-run deterioration or improvement signals detected.

## Risk, credit, and defensive confirmation

### Risk confirmations

- Risk-on confirmations: 3/5
- Yes: SPY positive over T1
- No: QQQ outperforming SPY
- Yes: HYG outperforming TLT
- Yes: VIX below 20
- No: ETF breadth above 70%
- Defensive confirmations: 3/5
- Yes: USMV outperforming SPY
- No: GLD outperforming SPY
- Yes: XLU outperforming SPY
- No: TLT positive over T1
- Yes: HY spreads widening

### Credit diagnostics

- Credit diagnostics:
- Spread stress: HY spreads appear calm at 2.73.
- Credit ETF confirmation: HYG is outperforming TLT by +2.9% over T1.

### Defensive diagnostics

- Defensive diagnostics:
- Equity defensives: 4/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
- Macro defensives: 1/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.

## Global confirmation

- Global risk appetite score: 40/100 (Mixed global confirmation)
- Global relative leadership:
- Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY -1.3% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY -3.6% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY -3.8% over T1
- EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY -1.7% over T1
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -3.4% over T1
- Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA +0.3% over T1
- Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA -3.0% over T1
- China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO +5.1% over T1
- India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO +2.0% over T1
- Dollar backdrop: UUP T1 +0.7%
- Global read-through: global equities are lagging U.S. equities; ex-U.S. equities are not confirming U.S. leadership; emerging markets are lagging; EM is leading developed ex-U.S..

## Why this matters

The regime conclusion is more reliable when breadth, leadership, credit, volatility, defensive evidence, and global confirmation agree across repeated snapshots. Divergence among these measures supports a mixed or transitional interpretation rather than a stronger conclusion.

## What would change the conclusion

The conclusion should change only when improvement or deterioration is confirmed across several supplied signals and persists across repeated snapshots.

Current tactical warning evidence:

- No major tactical warning signals currently detected.

## What to watch in the next snapshots

1. Check whether this transition persists: Defensive demand is rising meaningfully versus recent runs.
2. Track the next reading for: Risk appetite: deteriorating (-15.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
3. Track the next reading for: Growth leadership: deteriorating (-19.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
4. Track the next reading for: Momentum leadership: deteriorating (-29.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
5. Track the next reading for: Small-cap participation: stable (-3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
6. Track the next reading for: Breadth: deteriorating (-20.6 pts vs 5 runs ago)

## Important limitations

This is an observational regime report, not a forecast, trading signal, or personalized investment recommendation. Internal scores measure supplied market evidence and do not establish investor motives, company fundamentals, or future returns.

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# Detailed Data Appendix

Daily ETF + Macro Strategist Note
Generated: 2026-07-21 08:30 UTC
Latest ETF price date: 2026-07-20
Lookbacks: T1=trailing 1M, T3=trailing 3M, T6=trailing 6M, T9=trailing 9M, T12=trailing 12M

1/9 Strategist Summary
Strategist summary:
- Current regime read: Mixed / Transitional.
- ETF breadth: T1 59% | T3 76% | T6 82% | T12 100%.
- QQQ vs SPY: -4.0% over T1.
- RSP vs SPY: +1.6% over T1.
- MTUM vs SPY: -8.2% over T1.
- IWM vs SPY: +0.4% over T1.
- HYG vs TLT: +2.9% over T1.
- CMA-related quality/cash-generation proxy: QUAL vs SPY +0.8%, SPHQ vs SPY -4.4%, COWZ vs SPY +3.5% over T1. These are fresh ETF proxies for quality/cash-generation behavior, not substitutes for the Ken French CMA factor.
- Reversal-related momentum-unwind proxy: MTUM vs SPY -8.2%, SPMO vs SPY -7.3%, VLUE vs MTUM +4.0% over T1. Weakening momentum leadership with value/recovery improvement can flag reversal pressure; this is a proxy, not the academic reversal factor.
- Global vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY -1.3% over T1.
- Ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY -3.6% over T1.
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -3.4% over T1.
- Volatility is contained with VIX at 18.65.

2/9 What Changed Since Prior Run
- Risk-on appetite improved by 6.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Small-cap participation deteriorated by 9.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Defensive demand increased by 1.0 pts versus the prior run.
- Credit risk appetite improved by 3.0 pts versus the prior run.
- T1 ETF breadth improved by 5.9 pts versus the prior run.
- HYG vs TLT improved by 1.3 percentage points versus the prior run.

3/9 Tactical Signal Dashboard
- Risk backdrop: constructive.
- Breadth: mixed.
- Growth leadership: lagging.
- Equal-weight confirmation: confirming.
- Credit: confirming risk appetite.
- Volatility: contained.
- Defensive demand: rising.

3B/9 Regime Transition Monitor
- Defensive demand is rising meaningfully versus recent runs.

Tactical warnings:
- No major tactical warning signals currently detected.

3C/9 Historical Context + Divergence
- Concentration risk score: 26/100 (Low concentration risk / broad participation)

Historical percentiles:
- Risk appetite: 21st percentile
- T1 breadth: 24th percentile
- QQQ vs SPY: 3rd percentile
- RSP vs SPY: 36th percentile
- Credit beta vs duration: 100th percentile
- VIX: 76th percentile

Regime momentum:
- Risk appetite: deteriorating (-15.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Growth leadership: deteriorating (-19.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Momentum leadership: deteriorating (-29.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Small-cap participation: stable (-3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Breadth: deteriorating (-20.6 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Credit risk appetite: stable (+3.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)
- Defensive demand: improving (+28.0 pts vs 5 runs ago)

Statistical abnormality monitor:
- Breadth is moderately abnormal (-1.0σ, below normal).
- Mega-cap leadership is moderately abnormal (-1.5σ, below normal).
- Equal-weight participation is normal (-0.5σ, below normal).
- Small-cap participation is moderately abnormal (-1.3σ, below normal).
- Credit participation is moderately abnormal (+1.6σ, above normal).

Percentile monitor:
- Breadth is below average (26th percentile).
- Mega-cap leadership is very weak (6th percentile).
- Equal-weight participation is below average (38th percentile).
- Small-cap participation is below average (26th percentile).
- Credit participation is historically rare (100th percentile).

Signal deterioration monitor:
- No persistent 3-run deterioration or improvement signals detected.

3D/9 Signal Defensibility Diagnostics
- Market subregime: Mixed Confirmation
Credit diagnostics:
- Spread stress: HY spreads appear calm at 2.73.
- Credit ETF confirmation: HYG is outperforming TLT by +2.9% over T1.
Defensive diagnostics:
- Equity defensives: 4/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
- Macro defensives: 1/4 confirming versus SPY or positive over T1.
Duration diagnostics:
- Treasury ETF trend: TLT T1 -2.5%; IEF T1 -0.2%.
- Rate impulse: 2Y 4.21 (+0.03 d/d); 10Y 4.60 (+0.05 d/d); 10Y-2Y curve 0.39 (+0.02 d/d).

4/9 Market State Dashboard
Market regime: Mixed / Transitional
Current regime duration: 2 runs
Internal health: 76/100 (Stable)
Regime momentum: 59/100 (Stable)

Regime scorecard:
- Risk-on appetite: 75/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
- Defensive demand: 54/100 (LOW confidence)
- Growth leadership: 21/100 (MEDIUM confidence)
- Small-cap participation: 54/100 (LOW confidence)
- Momentum leadership: 18/100 (HIGH confidence)
- Real asset/inflation leadership: 50/100 (LOW confidence)
- Credit risk appetite: 63/100 (LOW confidence)
- Duration support: 33/100 (MEDIUM confidence)

Confirmation dashboard:
Risk-on confirmations: 3/5
- Yes: SPY positive over T1
- No: QQQ outperforming SPY
- Yes: HYG outperforming TLT
- Yes: VIX below 20
- No: ETF breadth above 70%
Defensive confirmations: 3/5
- Yes: USMV outperforming SPY
- No: GLD outperforming SPY
- Yes: XLU outperforming SPY
- No: TLT positive over T1
- Yes: HY spreads widening

5/9 ETF Dashboard

Market beta
SPY (S&P 500): T1 +0.4%, T3 +4.8%, T6 +7.8%, T9 +12.5%, T12 +19.5%
QQQ (Nasdaq 100): T1 -3.6%, T3 +7.4%, T6 +12.2%, T9 +16.0%, T12 +24.5%
RSP (Equal Weight S&P 500): T1 +2.0%, T3 +5.0%, T6 +7.3%, T9 +13.9%, T12 +17.2%
IWM (Russell 2000): T1 +0.8%, T3 +6.2%, T6 +10.6%, T9 +17.6%, T12 +31.9%
DIA (Dow): T1 +0.6%, T3 +5.2%, T6 +5.6%, T9 +13.2%, T12 +18.1%

Factor/style
MTUM (Momentum): T1 -7.8%, T3 +10.4%, T6 +17.9%, T9 +19.3%, T12 +27.4%
SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum): T1 -6.9%, T3 +12.8%, T6 +21.2%, T9 +20.1%, T12 +28.2%
QUAL (Quality): T1 +1.2%, T3 +5.0%, T6 +7.0%, T9 +12.8%, T12 +18.7%
SPHQ (S&P 500 Quality): T1 -4.0%, T3 +5.2%, T6 +9.6%, T9 +16.1%, T12 +19.6%
COWZ (Free Cash Flow Yield): T1 +4.0%, T3 +2.8%, T6 +4.4%, T9 +15.5%, T12 +18.0%
USMV (Min Vol): T1 +2.0%, T3 +2.0%, T6 +2.8%, T9 +3.6%, T12 +5.3%
VLUE (Enhanced Value): T1 -3.8%, T3 +19.9%, T6 +31.8%, T9 +51.6%, T12 +69.0%
VTV (Value): T1 +0.9%, T3 +6.7%, T6 +10.5%, T9 +18.1%, T12 +24.5%
VUG (Growth): T1 -0.2%, T3 +3.8%, T6 +5.7%, T9 +7.3%, T12 +14.8%
AVUV (Small Value): T1 +3.1%, T3 +6.4%, T6 +15.1%, T9 +26.8%, T12 +33.7%
DFSV (Small Value Profitability): T1 +3.9%, T3 +6.1%, T6 +12.2%, T9 +24.9%, T12 +30.5%

Sectors
XLK (Technology): T1 -5.3%, T3 +14.0%, T6 +21.1%, T9 +24.1%, T12 +35.3%
XLC (Communication Services): T1 +1.7%, T3 -6.7%, T6 -4.1%, T9 -3.1%, T12 +5.2%
XLY (Consumer Discretionary): T1 -0.6%, T3 -4.6%, T6 -6.2%, T9 -1.7%, T12 +4.9%
XLI (Industrials): T1 -0.6%, T3 +2.9%, T6 +8.0%, T9 +17.7%, T12 +18.9%
XLF (Financials): T1 +4.0%, T3 +7.3%, T6 +4.0%, T9 +6.5%, T12 +8.4%
XLE (Energy): T1 +6.7%, T3 +6.1%, T6 +23.4%, T9 +37.3%, T12 +37.9%
XLB (Materials): T1 -3.5%, T3 -3.2%, T6 +3.0%, T9 +14.3%, T12 +13.2%
XLV (Healthcare): T1 +6.1%, T3 +7.5%, T6 +2.3%, T9 +13.1%, T12 +22.1%
XLP (Consumer Staples): T1 +2.1%, T3 +3.6%, T6 +4.3%, T9 +9.3%, T12 +7.5%
XLU (Utilities): T1 +1.7%, T3 -2.0%, T6 +4.4%, T9 -1.2%, T12 +12.2%
XLRE (Real Estate): T1 +3.8%, T3 +2.6%, T6 +10.2%, T9 +10.8%, T12 +12.2%

Global/international
ACWI (Global Equities): T1 -0.9%, T3 +3.0%, T6 +7.2%, T9 +13.2%, T12 +20.8%
VXUS (Total International ex-US): T1 -3.1%, T3 -0.4%, T6 +6.3%, T9 +15.1%, T12 +23.4%
VEA (Developed Markets ex-US): T1 -3.3%, T3 -0.1%, T6 +7.3%, T9 +17.4%, T12 +25.5%
IEFA (EAFE Developed Markets): T1 -1.3%, T3 -0.4%, T6 +5.0%, T9 +13.0%, T12 +19.7%
VWO (Emerging Markets): T1 -3.0%, T3 -2.0%, T6 +2.9%, T9 +8.9%, T12 +17.6%
EEM (Emerging Markets): T1 -7.3%, T3 +0.4%, T6 +10.0%, T9 +20.4%, T12 +31.7%
EWJ (Japan): T1 -4.3%, T3 +0.8%, T6 +6.4%, T9 +16.0%, T12 +30.3%
EWU (United Kingdom): T1 +1.0%, T3 -2.5%, T6 +4.4%, T9 +14.1%, T12 +20.4%
EWQ (France): T1 -1.3%, T3 -2.0%, T6 +0.9%, T9 +3.6%, T12 +7.1%
EWG (Germany): T1 -1.2%, T3 -3.5%, T6 -3.6%, T9 +0.4%, T12 -1.6%
MCHI (China): T1 +2.0%, T3 -8.2%, T6 -14.4%, T9 -12.9%, T12 -3.2%
FXI (China Large Cap): T1 +4.1%, T3 -6.1%, T6 -11.7%, T9 -10.3%, T12 -5.1%
INDA (India): T1 -1.0%, T3 -5.3%, T6 -8.8%, T9 -9.7%, T12 -11.7%
EWC (Canada): T1 +0.7%, T3 +0.6%, T6 +6.7%, T9 +16.6%, T12 +27.2%
EWA (Australia): T1 -0.5%, T3 -4.3%, T6 +8.5%, T9 +9.4%, T12 +11.9%

Macro assets
GLD (Gold): T1 -5.4%, T3 -17.6%, T6 -13.2%, T9 -5.1%, T12 +19.5%
DBC (Commodities): T1 +5.2%, T3 +3.0%, T6 +25.6%, T9 +35.8%, T12 +33.9%
TLT (Long Treasuries): T1 -2.5%, T3 -2.6%, T6 -2.9%, T9 -4.3%, T12 +3.1%
IEF (Intermediate Treasuries): T1 -0.2%, T3 -1.5%, T6 -1.0%, T9 -0.9%, T12 +3.2%
HYG (High Yield Credit): T1 +0.4%, T3 +0.3%, T6 +1.3%, T9 +3.1%, T12 +5.4%
LQD (Investment Grade Credit): T1 -1.1%, T3 -1.5%, T6 -1.2%, T9 -1.1%, T12 +3.7%
UUP (US Dollar): T1 +0.7%, T3 +3.8%, T6 +3.5%, T9 +5.5%, T12 +6.9%

6/9 Relative Leadership
Growth/mega-cap vs broad market: QQQ-SPY | T1 -4.0%, T3 +2.6%, T6 +4.4%, T9 +3.5%, T12 +5.0%
Equal-weight vs cap-weight: RSP-SPY | T1 +1.6%, T3 +0.2%, T6 -0.5%, T9 +1.4%, T12 -2.3%
Small caps vs large caps: IWM-SPY | T1 +0.4%, T3 +1.5%, T6 +2.8%, T9 +5.2%, T12 +12.4%
Momentum vs broad market: MTUM-SPY | T1 -8.2%, T3 +5.6%, T6 +10.1%, T9 +6.8%, T12 +7.9%
S&P 500 momentum vs broad market: SPMO-SPY | T1 -7.3%, T3 +8.0%, T6 +13.5%, T9 +7.6%, T12 +8.7%
Quality vs broad market: QUAL-SPY | T1 +0.8%, T3 +0.3%, T6 -0.7%, T9 +0.3%, T12 -0.8%
S&P 500 quality vs broad market: SPHQ-SPY | T1 -4.4%, T3 +0.5%, T6 +1.9%, T9 +3.6%, T12 +0.1%
Free-cash-flow yield vs broad market: COWZ-SPY | T1 +3.5%, T3 -2.0%, T6 -3.4%, T9 +3.1%, T12 -1.5%
Minimum volatility vs broad market: USMV-SPY | T1 +1.6%, T3 -2.7%, T6 -5.0%, T9 -8.9%, T12 -14.1%
Enhanced value vs momentum: VLUE-MTUM | T1 +4.0%, T3 +9.5%, T6 +13.9%, T9 +32.3%, T12 +41.6%
Value vs growth: VTV-VUG | T1 +1.1%, T3 +3.0%, T6 +4.8%, T9 +10.7%, T12 +9.7%
Consumer discretionary vs staples: XLY-XLP | T1 -2.7%, T3 -8.3%, T6 -10.5%, T9 -11.1%, T12 -2.6%
Industrials vs utilities: XLI-XLU | T1 -2.3%, T3 +4.9%, T6 +3.6%, T9 +19.0%, T12 +6.7%
Energy vs technology: XLE-XLK | T1 +12.1%, T3 -7.9%, T6 +2.3%, T9 +13.2%, T12 +2.6%
Gold vs equities: GLD-SPY | T1 -5.8%, T3 -22.3%, T6 -20.9%, T9 -17.6%, T12 +0.0%
Credit beta vs duration: HYG-TLT | T1 +2.9%, T3 +2.8%, T6 +4.1%, T9 +7.4%, T12 +2.4%
Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY | T1 -1.3%, T3 -1.7%, T6 -0.5%, T9 +0.7%, T12 +1.3%
Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY | T1 -3.6%, T3 -5.1%, T6 -1.5%, T9 +2.6%, T12 +3.9%
Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY | T1 -3.8%, T3 -4.8%, T6 -0.5%, T9 +4.9%, T12 +6.0%
EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY | T1 -1.7%, T3 -5.1%, T6 -2.8%, T9 +0.5%, T12 +0.2%
Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY | T1 -3.4%, T3 -6.8%, T6 -4.8%, T9 -3.6%, T12 -1.9%
Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA | T1 +0.3%, T3 -1.9%, T6 -4.4%, T9 -8.5%, T12 -7.9%
Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA | T1 -3.0%, T3 +1.2%, T6 +1.4%, T9 +3.0%, T12 +10.6%
China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO | T1 +5.1%, T3 -6.2%, T6 -17.3%, T9 -21.7%, T12 -20.8%
India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO | T1 +2.0%, T3 -3.3%, T6 -11.7%, T9 -18.5%, T12 -29.3%

6B/9 Global / International Confirmation
Global risk appetite score: 40/100 (Mixed global confirmation)

Global relative leadership:
- Global equities vs U.S.: ACWI-SPY -1.3% over T1
- Ex-U.S. equities vs U.S.: VXUS-SPY -3.6% over T1
- Developed ex-U.S. vs U.S.: VEA-SPY -3.8% over T1
- EAFE developed markets vs U.S.: IEFA-SPY -1.7% over T1
- Emerging markets vs U.S.: VWO-SPY -3.4% over T1
- Emerging markets vs developed ex-U.S.: VWO-VEA +0.3% over T1
- Japan vs EAFE developed markets: EWJ-IEFA -3.0% over T1
- China vs emerging markets: MCHI-VWO +5.1% over T1
- India vs emerging markets: INDA-VWO +2.0% over T1
- Dollar backdrop: UUP T1 +0.7%

Global read-through: global equities are lagging U.S. equities; ex-U.S. equities are not confirming U.S. leadership; emerging markets are lagging; EM is leading developed ex-U.S..

7/9 U.S. Leaders and Laggards
Strongest U.S. trend scores:
+ VLUE (Enhanced Value): T1 -3.8%, T6 +31.8%, T12 +69.0%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -9.1%, Decelerating leadership
+ XLE (Energy): T1 +6.7%, T6 +23.4%, T12 +37.9%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +2.8%, Persistent / accelerating
+ DBC (Commodities): T1 +5.2%, T6 +25.6%, T12 +33.9%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +0.9%, Persistent leadership
+ XLK (Technology): T1 -5.3%, T6 +21.1%, T12 +35.3%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -8.8%, Decelerating leadership
+ AVUV (Small Value): T1 +3.1%, T6 +15.1%, T12 +33.7%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +0.6%, Decelerating leadership
+ DFSV (Small Value Profitability): T1 +3.9%, T6 +12.2%, T12 +30.5%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +1.8%, Decelerating leadership
+ SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum): T1 -6.9%, T6 +21.2%, T12 +28.2%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -10.5%, Decelerating leadership
+ IWM (Russell 2000): T1 +0.8%, T6 +10.6%, T12 +31.9%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -0.9%, Decelerating leadership

Weakest U.S. trend scores:
- GLD (Gold): T1 -5.4%, T6 -13.2%, T12 +19.5%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -3.2%, Long-term leader, short-term fading
- XLY (Consumer Discretionary): T1 -0.6%, T6 -6.2%, T12 +4.9%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration +0.5%, Accelerating leadership
- TLT (Long Treasuries): T1 -2.5%, T6 -2.9%, T12 +3.1%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -2.0%, Accelerating leadership
- XLC (Communication Services): T1 +1.7%, T6 -4.1%, T12 +5.2%, Persistence 2/5, Acceleration +2.4%, Emerging tactical leadership
- LQD (Investment Grade Credit): T1 -1.1%, T6 -1.2%, T12 +3.7%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -0.9%, Long-term leader, short-term fading
- IEF (Intermediate Treasuries): T1 -0.2%, T6 -1.0%, T12 +3.2%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -0.0%, Long-term leader, short-term fading
- HYG (High Yield Credit): T1 +0.4%, T6 +1.3%, T12 +5.4%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration +0.2%, Persistent leadership
- XLB (Materials): T1 -3.5%, T6 +3.0%, T12 +13.2%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -4.0%, Decelerating leadership

7B/9 Global Leaders and Laggards
Strongest global trend scores:
+ EWC (Canada): T1 +0.7%, T6 +6.7%, T12 +27.2%, Persistence 5/5, Acceleration -0.4%, Persistent leadership
+ EEM (Emerging Markets): T1 -7.3%, T6 +10.0%, T12 +31.7%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -9.0%, Decelerating leadership
+ ACWI (Global Equities): T1 -0.9%, T6 +7.2%, T12 +20.8%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -2.1%, Decelerating leadership
+ EWJ (Japan): T1 -4.3%, T6 +6.4%, T12 +30.3%, Persistence 4/5, Acceleration -5.3%, Decelerating leadership
+ VEA (Developed Markets ex-US): T1 -3.3%, T6 +7.3%, T12 +25.5%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -4.6%, Decelerating leadership

Weakest global trend scores:
- INDA (India): T1 -1.0%, T6 -8.8%, T12 -11.7%, Persistence 0/5, Acceleration +0.4%, Accelerating leadership
- MCHI (China): T1 +2.0%, T6 -14.4%, T12 -3.2%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration +4.4%, Accelerating leadership
- FXI (China Large Cap): T1 +4.1%, T6 -11.7%, T12 -5.1%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration +6.1%, Accelerating leadership
- EWG (Germany): T1 -1.2%, T6 -3.6%, T12 -1.6%, Persistence 1/5, Acceleration -0.6%, Accelerating leadership
- EWQ (France): T1 -1.3%, T6 +0.9%, T12 +7.1%, Persistence 3/5, Acceleration -1.5%, Long-term leader, short-term fading

8/9 Macro Snapshot
VIX: 18.65 (-0.12 d/d) as of 2026-07-20
3M Treasury: 3.86 (+0.01 d/d) as of 2026-07-20
2Y Treasury: 4.21 (+0.03 d/d) as of 2026-07-20
10Y Treasury: 4.60 (+0.05 d/d) as of 2026-07-20
10Y-2Y Curve: 0.39 (+0.02 d/d) as of 2026-07-20
HY Spread: 2.73 (+0.02 d/d) as of 2026-07-17
IG Spread: 0.79 (+0.01 d/d) as of 2026-07-17